What happened to Mavericks?

[gar655]

Thought it was supposed to be this fall. Figured it would be available same time as iOS7 since it's needed for the new keychain/icloud thing.

 

[smackababy]

Fall isn't here yet? It can still be this fall.

 

[Mixolydian]

Usually the iPhone announcements are in September, while the Mac-related announcements are in October.

 

[manly]

maybe just rumor, but I recently read the same thing that happened to Leopard: Apple shifted dev resources over to iOS.

It's sounds strange but analysts have been calling this 12 month period where Apple pushed > $150B revenue the "lost year". I thought it was a mistake a year ago to push every major product release into calendar Q4 and it'd be a worse mistake to repeat it again.

 

[vailr]

New (Haswell) MacBooks, iMacs, and (Ivy Bridge-E) Mac Pro with OSX Mavericks should be released for sale around Oct. 8. Apple again probably won't be offering a retail DVD of Mavericks, however. Most likely to only be purchasable via iTunes for installing on older existing systems.

 

[Subyman]

maybe just rumor, but I recently read the same thing that happened to Leopard: Apple shifted dev resources over to iOS.

It's sounds strange but analysts have been calling this 12 month period where Apple pushed > $150B revenue the "lost year". I thought it was a mistake a year ago to push every major product release into calendar Q4 and it'd be a worse mistake to repeat it again.

I'm thinking pushing all their product hype into the holiday season is a good thing for them. It would be nice for Apple to get into a groove so at least we could have some sort of scheduled timeline.

They really need to work on scheduled refreshed for the new Mac Pro. So many professionals have left for Windows/Linux and its too bad since OSX is a great platform to create and develop. It is hard to lay down $3500 + $xxxx in OSX software licenses with a dark cloud hanging over the Mac Pro department.

 

[manly]

I'm thinking pushing all their product hype into the holiday season is a good thing for them. It would be nice for Apple to get into a groove so at least we could have some sort of scheduled timeline.

They really need to work on scheduled refreshed for the new Mac Pro. So many professionals have left for Windows/Linux and its too bad since OSX is a great platform to create and develop. It is hard to lay down $3500 + $xxxx in OSX software licenses with a dark cloud hanging over the Mac Pro department.

it's a terrible thing, actually. It's like Tim Cook and Co. sat around last year thinking they had to backload the calendar to beat Wall Street estimates. IMO it's not something Jobs would have done purposely.

In the meantime, there have been almost no new products in the intervening 9 months and while revenues have held up, margins and profits haven't.

I understand the cadence and history of the 12 month cycle for iPhone/iOS but I don't feel it's a sound strategy to shove everything Apple into Q4. It makes good sense to align new iDevices with holiday shopping, but people still appreciate other updates throughout the year.

Look at what happened to iPad (4th gen) sales. They surprised by releasing it early, cannibalized its sales with the introduction of the iPad mini and have seen Android soak up iPad's once-dominant market share.

The Mac Pro is just the most extreme example of what happens when Apple gets complacent. Once you lose momentum, it's extremely difficult to earn it back. Look at how long it's taken Apple to grow its domestic PC market share from 3% back up to 11%.

 

[KeithP]

maybe just rumor, but I recently read the same thing that happened to Leopard: Apple shifted dev resources over to iOS.

In that case, they actually announced what they were doing.
http://www.tuaw.com/2007/04/12/apple-announces-leopard-delays-due-to-the-iphone/

-KeithP

 

[Subyman]

it's a terrible thing, actually. It's like Tim Cook and Co. sat around last year thinking they had to backload the calendar to beat Wall Street estimates. IMO it's not something Jobs would have done purposely.

In the meantime, there have been almost no new products in the intervening 9 months and while revenues have held up, margins and profits haven't.

I understand the cadence and history of the 12 month cycle for iPhone/iOS but I don't feel it's a sound strategy to shove everything Apple into Q4. It makes good sense to align new iDevices with holiday shopping, but people still appreciate other updates throughout the year.

Look at what happened to iPad (4th gen) sales. They surprised by releasing it early, cannibalized its sales with the introduction of the iPad mini and have seen Android soak up iPad's once-dominant market share.

The Mac Pro is just the most extreme example of what happens when Apple gets complacent. Once you lose momentum, it's extremely difficult to earn it back. Look at how long it's taken Apple to grow its domestic PC market share from 3% back up to 11%.

I think the difference is that Apple tends to hit specific markets when important upgrades are available. Mac's are now locked to Intel's tick-tock model. There is no need to put out a refresh without new hardware to back it up. The Air received a great update with Haswell earlier in the year. The new Mac Pro was tied to the launch of IB-E, so that forced it to a fall release.

iPhone/iPads are best launched toward the end of the year when people are ready to spend money. The sales charts always show iDevices exploding toward the holiday season, so it makes sense to have a "brand new" device to push consumer hype. An 8 month old phone doesn't seem as nice for Christmas.

Last year iMac had construction issues that pushed the launch back to the end of the year while IB MacBook Pros and 15" retinas were released in May/June. The 13" followed a few months later.

Pumping out SKU after SKU isn't the way to go. Measured refreshes with a decent list of upgrades is a better approach than shotgunning a huge lineup that ends up being confusing.

 

[manly]

I think the difference is that Apple tends to hit specific markets when important upgrades are available. Mac's are now locked to Intel's tick-tock model. There is no need to put out a refresh without new hardware to back it up. The Air received a great update with Haswell earlier in the year. The new Mac Pro was tied to the launch of IB-E, so that forced it to a fall release.

iPhone/iPads are best launched toward the end of the year when people are ready to spend money. The sales charts always show iDevices exploding toward the holiday season, so it makes sense to have a "brand new" device to push consumer hype. An 8 month old phone doesn't seem as nice for Christmas.

Last year iMac had construction issues that pushed the launch back to the end of the year while IB MacBook Pros and 15" retinas were released in May/June. The 13" followed a few months later.

Pumping out SKU after SKU isn't the way to go. Measured refreshes with a decent list of upgrades is a better approach than shotgunning a huge lineup that ends up being confusing.

no offense, but those are some straw man arguments IMHO. Of course Apple is limited by Intel's roadmap but theoretically they could've released more Haswell-based MacBooks by now (if not the entire fleet). You're being generous by saying Mac Pro is tied to a specific new CPU when it hasn't been updated architecturally in a few years. As you originally admitted earlier, they've dropped the Mac Pro ball for years and are finally playing catch-up.

Furthermore, I never argued they should pump out more SKUs. Their good/better/best model is great for consumers. What I'm saying is that stuffing all eggs into one basket that generates ~ 40% of annual revenue is not a good long-term strategy. People are "ready" to spend money year-round, with the exception of Q1 when they're fatigued and broke from the holidays.

Even though I'm very sympathetic to iDevices being "market timed" with holiday shopping, people in the U.S. do buy iPhones all year round when they're upgrade-eligible.

If anything your conclusion about "measured refreshes" aligns with my hypothesis about having some upgrades year-round when they're ready. I'm arguing that stuffing Q4 with products is in effect pumping out the maximal number of fresh SKUs in a short period of time to satisfy Wall Street. Jobs always worried about the products first and then the business, not what would make i-bankers happiest. I'm pretty sure in the conference call last year Cook said it was just a coincidence a lot of stuff was released in Q4, but here we are again with a similar coincidence.

 

[Subyman]

no offense, but those are some straw man arguments IMHO. Of course Apple is limited by Intel's roadmap but theoretically they could've released more Haswell-based MacBooks by now (if not the entire fleet). You're being generous by saying Mac Pro is tied to a specific new CPU when it hasn't been updated architecturally in a few years. As you originally admitted earlier, they've dropped the Mac Pro ball for years and are finally playing catch-up.

They aren't strawman arguments, they are tackling the issue with examples that are directly related to the question at hand. A strawman is basically making an analogy to prove the original wrong. I never did that.

My main argument is that I think the end-of-the-year releases are a product of manufacturing and parts availability rather than padding the end of the fiscal year for Wall Street. Especially since most of the choices can be tied to manufacturing processes as I've shown in the previous post. You are correct about the MacBook Pros. I'll be curious to see where they take those, although they usually do not upgrade Macs until after the educational discount.

Most likely they are waiting until after Mavericks to introduce the new line up, which is expected. In turn, Mavericks was pushed back due to iOS7.

As for the Mac Pro, you are talking specifically to Tim Cook's new policies, so previous Mac Pro problems are not relevant to the conversation. The new one is though, but can be tied to the IB-E launch.

Furthermore, I never argued they should pump out more SKUs. Their good/better/best model is great for consumers. What I'm saying is that stuffing all eggs into one basket that generates ~ 40% of annual revenue is not a good long-term strategy. People are "ready" to spend money year-round, with the exception of Q1 when they're fatigued and broke from the holidays.

Apple's bread and butter is iPhone on contract. People are typically locked into a 2 year upgrade cycle, so iterating quickly may not provide more revenue. Launching yearly, major upgrades may be more in line with what the typical consumer will expect. Other than techies, most people roll up to the counter and ask for the latest and greatest.

Even though I'm very sympathetic to iDevices being "market timed" with holiday shopping, people in the U.S. do buy iPhones all year round when they're upgrade-eligible.

If anything your conclusion about "measured refreshes" aligns with my hypothesis about having some upgrades year-round when they're ready. I'm arguing that stuffing Q4 with products is in effect pumping out the maximal number of fresh SKUs in a short period of time to satisfy Wall Street. Jobs always worried about the products first and then the business, not what would make i-bankers happiest. I'm pretty sure in the conference call last year Cook said it was just a coincidence a lot of stuff was released in Q4, but here we are again with a similar coincidence.

Well there you go, Tim Cook himself agrees

 

[manly]

Subyman, we can agree to disagree.

I stand by my point that there's no rational way to support Apple's release of one new product in the first 9 months of the year (2 if you count iPhone next week). You keep mentioning manufacturing processes as if Apple can't release products on any given day of the year, specifically mentioning Intel's CPU roadmap. If that was truly the case, we'd have more Haswell-based MacBooks by now, as we both agree. In the past, Apple has released a new Mac weeks before an OS X upgrade. Maybe there's a little more engineering work to validate hardware twice within a short window of time, but they can do it.

And Intel-based Macs are less than 20% of Apple's business now, so that doesn't explain away the rest of the product line where Apple controls most of the design.

I actually don't mind a new iPhone being released every September, but like I said, Americans are upgrade-eligible year round. An annual fall release isn't a bad customer expectation, but it's one that Apple has created rather than one that's imposed on it.

I feel you're arguing there are circumstantial or logical reasons why the pipeline gets stuffed in Q4. My point is there's never a logical chain of reasoning to support complacency (i.e. hardware has to wait for Mavericks, which has to wait for iOS 7). Tim Cook has been on the job for 2 years now, the honeymoon's been over.

Sorry for hijacking this thread.

 

[gar655]

Hopefully by October then? I just thought that it would be ready the same time as iOS7 since some features in iOS7 seem to require Mavericks to use with a desktop/laptop.