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What do YOU think will happen with the debt ceiling?

ProfJohn

ProfJohn

Lifer
Take your best guess on how this crisis comes to an end.


I think we see something similar to what we saw last December with the Bush tax cuts + unemployment debate.

1. Perhaps some cuts that everyone already agrees with.
2. Maybe we close a few tax loopholes or end some subsidies
3. We get a debt ceiling increase that takes us through till 2013 and let the next President and congress fight it out.

1 & 3 most certainly happen, not sure about 2.

In the end everyone will get something. Obama gets the limit raised and Republicans get some cuts.
 
One side will cave (likely Republicans), debt ceiling will be raised with no meaningful spending cuts or tax increases and we will continue to spend our way into oblivion while keeping taxes near current levels (maybe a few closed loopholes / reduced subsidies).
 
The ranking republicans have said not raising the ceiling is unacceptable and will be disastrous. If all Obama is getting is raising the ceiling, he's getting nothing at all.

I honestly don't know how this plays out. I think a deal is more likely to be struck than not, but I don't think I can guess at the particulars of it with a higher degree of probable accuracy than chance.
 
Depends on how much pain Obama wants to put Republicans through. Since he's a responsible guy, probably not as much as he should after the sh!t they pulled. He'll probably let them save face somehow. In the end we'll get:
Backloaded cuts to stimulus that would happen anyways if economy recovers.
Backloaded tax hikes that would happen anyways when Bush tax cuts expire.
Which is fine by me.
 
Repubs cave.

They'lll find enough votes to let those new House members that got elected with TEA Party support register a "NO" vote.

Then they'll claim that this is very reason people need to vote them into 'real' power. Only with real majorities can they stop the fiscal/economic train wreck.

It's much fun to think of what I WISH they would do.

- Hit the uber rich fund managers with ordinary tax on their (carried interest) profits.

- Cut the stupid and/or unnecessary spending. Stop subsidies to Plan Parenthood, quit buying cocaine for monkeys, cut foreign aid etc.

I want the deal to expire next Summer before the elections; that would assure much more fun & games.

Fern
 
What will happen?

Republicans in D.C. will act like children.
Democrats in D.C. will act like children.
Fox News will discuss how childish Democrats in D.C. are.
MSNBC will discuss how childish Republicans in D.C. are.
AT P&N will create countless threads and posts to insult each other.

The debt ceiling will be raised.
Spending will not decrease.
Taxes will not be raised.
Republicans will declare victory over Democrats.
Democrats will declare victory over Republicans.
Government is as government does.
 
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Oh, and debt ceiling will get raised, tax increases of some sort will be passed, and spending will be cut between $2T and $4T.
 
I heard an interesting argument that, according to the 14th amendment, section 4, the President has the power to continue to spend money. But I imagine that he wouldn't be allowed to borrow it from others. So this will amount to printing money, and will lead to inflation, stagflation, and a double-dip recession. 🙁

In fact, this could be what Republicans wanted all along. 😱
 
If control of the House hadn't changed hands last November we wouldn't even be discussing this. The status quo would have continued. The only reason our government is even talking about addressing our severe and chronic problems is because of a change in power.

Think about that, analyze it and draw conclusions.

You guys saying the Repubs want to crash the economy really crack me up.
 
There will be a limited, in both scope and duration, compromise and the can will get kicked down the road one more time. Such is the history of Washington, D.C. politicians....Democrats and Republican alike.
 
Increase to satisfy not defaulting, whenever that happens to be, and for now at the very most some pretty mild spending cuts or tax increase(either one won't be substantial and I guess toward spending cut). It will be another kicking can, ultimately.
 
Engineer said:
Don't know but with some GOP now demanding a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution...things don't look good for a solution.
Click to expand...

I'd say there's a 40% chance we will default at this point. And yes, that means not meeting all obligations.

S&P apparently believes there's a better than 1 in 2 chance we're going to get downgraded in the next 90 days. What they really mean is that they believe there's a better than 50% chance we default.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/14/news/economy/debt_ceiling_credit_warning/index.htm?iid=Lead
 
BigDH01 said:
I'd say there's a 40% chance we will default at this point. And yes, that means not meeting all obligations.

S&P apparently believes there's a better than 1 in 2 chance we're going to get downgraded in the next 90 days. What they really mean is that they believe there's a better than 50% chance we default.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/14/news/economy/debt_ceiling_credit_warning/index.htm?iid=Lead
Click to expand...

If they do default and the s&P drops like a rock, i'd be a buyer since the debt ceiling will be raised eventually.
 
This is nothing but a total scare tactic. The United States will not default. We would only be in default if we didn't have the money to pay our interest payments or to refinance those bonds that come due. We, as a nation, have revenues of about $200 billion a month. That's more than enough.

So even if there is no deal, we will be fine. Yes the EPA and the Energy Department might have to shut down, but who cares?

There is enough cash to pay our interest payments, SS, Medicare, Medicaid and Veteran's benefits. I say if any group doesn't get paid, I say let's not pay the military. As a retired Marine Corps officer, I would love to see that happen.
 
In this game of chicken, maybe it would be worth the cost to finally see who is right.
Do nothing, then wait and see.
Bachmann said nothing needs to be done. All will be fine. Nothing will change. So lets just see.
The tea party says don't raise it. Ok... If their SS checks stop coming, see how they feel then.
Obama says someone will stop getting their check. Either mom & dad on SS, or the FBI, or the military. Someone. So let that happen and see how the republicans deal with the heat they get from the public.
Give Bachmann her wake-up call. Show everyone just how clueless she is. This i love you hag that wants to be presedent.
I say, lets play chicken.
 
I would be all for the Repubs playing hardball and even seeing what happens if they Don't pass an extension almost always, except right now when I'm about 45 days away from locking in the int rate on about a 120k mortgage.
 
The debt cieling will be raised by 1 - 1.5 trillion.


I hear in the news a lot about government's plan for a deficit reduction over the next 10 years... but i'm unsure if this intended as a deficit reduction from our current 14.2xxx trillion dollar debt. Does anyone know exactly what they are using to claim x amount of a deficit reduction?

If they show us in a 20 trillion dollar debt by 2020 at current spending levels, are they getting away with 18 trillion dollars of national debt at that time being a 2 trillion dollar deficit reduction?

Since government fancies the 10 year approach, is the deficit reduction plan based on cuts from current insane spending levels or from spending levels averaged out over the last 10 years and adjusted for inflation year over year?

Does government get to reduce deficit by simply slowing it's rate of increase slightly?


How soon before we all forget 14.3 and are soon fooled into a plan based around 16.7, 19.3, 24.8, 30? All of which having a deficit reduction plan tied around the fundamental need for their increase? Get it? How soon before we realize it is not the deficit reduction that is the focus of the government, but the debt limit cieling that is being justified to the American people in the same vein an addict justifies one more hit?

14.3 is not a number that matters at this time. Direction matters. Are we ever going to get true deficit reduction and are we hearing anything from the government at this time that is reflective of a goal towards true deficit reduction? It's not hard to cut spending from record highs, it's hard to bring down the national debt. It's seems immediatly clear that cutting the national debt does not work if one gets to cut spending and incease debt and claim a victory to the american poeple.
 
a777pilot said:
This is nothing but a total scare tactic. The United States will not default. We would only be in default if we didn't have the money to pay our interest payments or to refinance those bonds that come due. We, as a nation, have revenues of about $200 billion a month. That's more than enough.
Click to expand...

Do you just make things up as you go?

We borrow more money annually than we use to pay the interest on our debt. That means we don't have money to pay the interest on our debt.
 
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