• We’re currently investigating an issue related to the forum theme and styling that is impacting page layout and visual formatting. The problem has been identified, and we are actively working on a resolution. There is no impact to user data or functionality, this is strictly a front-end display issue. We’ll post an update once the fix has been deployed. Thanks for your patience while we get this sorted.

What do you think? Is Intel really in trouble?

Hulk

Hulk

Diamond Member
Sometimes I think the balance of power in the CPU market is about to shift fully to AMD.

PIII's shortages
Bad Coppermine yields
PIII 1.13Ghz fiasco
High prices compared to AMD
820 motherboard failure

Is spite of all this Intel's earnings were very good when they reported last week. What will it take for AMD to take them down? Or are they aready on their way down?

I think Intel will live or die (long term) on the P4. Right now from what I've read around the net I don't believe P4 will keep up with PIII/Athlon clock for clock on mainstream apps and games. They are trying to sell on clockspeed alone. Who knows it may work.

I don't like the fact that P4 will require a new case from ATX either. But for OEM's I guess that doesn't matter and I believe that's where Intel is making most of it's money.

So what do you think? Will the P4 put Intel back on top? Actually that's a two part question:

1. Will the average consumer buy P4 based on clockspeed alone even it if turns out that a 1.2Ghz Athlon is as fast as a 1.7GHz P4?

2. Will P4 be a chip that people on the forum will want to trade up to from the fastest current PIII's and Athlon's.

 
1) Yes.
I got to school with a guy that just bought a P3-733, 128MB of RAM, and a TNT m64. This guy is taking his computer science degree and he doesn't notice anything wrong with that system.
I can't imagine what an average consumer would think....

2) I doubt it.
I think that if you've had people bitching and moaning over power requirements on the Athlon, well the P4 is going to be disturbing. Requiring Rambus and new cases, and the fact that it won't beat a P3/K7 by much....I don't think it will be that great in enthusiast circles.
(However that double speed ALU would be nice for RC5 cracking 😛)
When the DDR chipsets for the P4 show up it will be better, but I still think over all the cost of new cases/PSUs and the power requirements and the high cost of the chip itself will make it an unlikely choice for most.


For the overall question: No.
Intel doesn't give half a sh!t about what the tech junkies think. It matters that dell gets to put 1.5Ghz or 2.0Ghz on their machines and lots of dumb consumers will buy it because it has a big number.

Why has ATi always had the most money of any Gfx company even though their cards suck? (before the Radeon)
It's because they have all the OEM deals, and that's where intel will makes it money is with OEM deals.

Us tech guys that realize well a 1Ghz P3/Athy may be near as fast as a 1.5Ghz P3 and a 1.2Ghz Athy may be faster are a very small minority.
 
Everybody thought the big three US auto makers were too big to fail but they have been taking turns falling on their butt. Intel is a big outfit with a huge headstart but inertia won't keep them going forever. It takes years to change the direction a company like Intel is headed, just like maneuvering a super tanker, so they better get busy. Realistically, they have taken a couple of solid hits but I don't see anything that looks like a torpedo below the waterline.
 
1)People like us that read reviews and are educated on the subject, will not fall for the MHz trick. However, the mojority of the average-joe computer buyers, generally only know that 1.5GHz is faster than 1.2GHz, and therefore they would buy a P4 based on the higher clock speed. Not to mention the large amount of consumers that would buy Intel, just because of the name. It's hard to believe, and it's illogical, but unfortunately it's true. Intel has earned the trust of many people.

2)I doubt it. Everyone on this board will likely be informed enough give a P4 it's proper value assesment.

If the P4 actually turns out to be slower clock-for-clock than an equivelent Thunderbird, then all we can do is spread the work and try and educate as many people as possible.

Of course, we don't have any way of knowing how fast the P4 is yet.
 
On the processor end Intel is getting its ass handed back to it on a plate but processors are only a portion of Intel's business. They also make flash memory, embedded chips (RAID, communications), networking equipment, and software.
 
Last I read AMD had 13% of the worldwide PC CPU market and growing. Guess who has the most of the rest?

The x86 consumer desktop market is the only area where AMD is really making headway into Intel territory. Intel still completely dominates in the mobile processor, server, and corporate computing arenas, which account for much more than the consumer desktop market. The Celeron killed AMDs K6 headway into the mobile and sub-$1,000 market, and it'll be a while before Duron, even though it's generally regarded as a technically better processor, can fill that void, let alone start to gain ground. AMD currently has no Xenon equivalent, so until Athlon servers have a proven track record, Xenon is pretty much unchallenged in the x86 server market. And the Wintel consortium has a deathgrip on x86 corporate markets.

As pointed out above, we've got technical tunnel vision when it comes to evaluating CPUs. AMD is making great products and making steady market and technical progress, but they've still got a long way to go before they really put a serious dent in Intel's armor, in my opinion.

Somebody please correct me if I'm off on these statistics.
 
No. Now that Intel has dropped the RAMBUS shackles and is concentrating on DDR motherboards, it will bounce back.

The only thing I am worried about is RAMBUS and its sue em' all mentality.
 
Looking at Intel from an investor viewpoint, they know
that PC growth is slowing and so they are de-emphasizing
the desktop processor.Over the last 18 months, Intel has
begun diversifing into Internet hardware and communications
chips.In the years ahead processors will be less of a source of
cash for Intel.So what does this mean? Can Intel grow earnings
at a 30% rate like they have over the past ten years or are the analysts
right in saying you can expect 20% growth over the next decade? Me,
I think Intel has the right vision and products and with the stock
trading at levels seldom ever seen now is the time to load up and let
this company with 7.3 billion in net income last year let you retire
early.
 
Intel might be contractually locked in bed with Rambust but it doesn't stop VIA, ALi, or Micron from developing chipsets. If I was Intel I would take one in the family jewels and let other develop chipsets that support DDR without interference. In fact if I was intel I would make sure there were "supply problems" with the i850. Sure its bad faith and technically a breech of contract but what's Rambust gonna do? Sue Intel? Intel could get more cash by having just their employees empty their wallets into a big bin let alone in the bank.

Windogg
 
This is it, I'm sick of Intel honestly, I have been an Intel deadhead for years and years, and lately I'm going to be man enough to take my head out of my ass and realize that the people of Intel are heartless, they ploy the customer like puppets and they believe themselves to be the puppet master ( I do heed this advice to you weary intel followers also ) Intel constantly throws one half ass project after another and another, RAMBUS, PIII 1.3ghz Fiasco, 820 Chipset failure, Pentium 4 being absolute cow dung, and now they are trying to make the customer spend more money on something that is misinterperting. Well guys we all are educated on computers but hey you ever been shopping for a car? or some other item that you were not educated on? I mean how do you feel not knowing ANYTHING about the item, and trying to make a good honest decision that you can look back and proud on? Its very stressful, imagine that with computers, I work as a salesman and I can see how customers feel (thank god not on commision I am) its very threatning to some, and its companies like Intel that customers know exist, Companies like intel who are out there trying to rub them blind, however the customer doesnt even realize that the person trying to rip them off IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF THERE FACE (Not me! INTEL!) And I'm not going to praise AMD either, I know they will get big headed and also steer in the same direction Intel was....All we can do is pray that AMD keeps there ways for good, and that Intel will also change, if not it will be a slow painful death for the giants.
 
Very good points, Windogg. But, I think the main issue is that Intel is GREEDY and wants their sticky fingers in everything. That is how they got into this Rambus mess in the first place. Now it's biting them in the ass.

It's gonna be interesting. It already is, considering AMD is already putting out a better product.
 
Intel gets record profits last quarter ($8 Billion) with lots of mistakes...imagine how much $ they'll get without the screwups. :Q
 


<< company with 7.3 billion in net income last year let you retire >>


Negree, INTC market cap is 288.0 billion, I am afraid you will
retire before they make that much in profit.
BTW have you ever heard about bear markets?
 
We all know AMD has great products, but they're still suffering from the stigma of their past, namely the K6 legacy. They're main market is consumer systems, and Joe NonAnand still thinks AMD = Less-Than-Intel quality/performance. That's changing, but probably not fast enough to prevent Intel from extricating itself from whatever perceived mess it's in, which again the general public doesn't necessarily know or care about. They're buying names and MHz. We ALL remember the Pentium !!!/Intel inside TV commercials, but I sure can't think of an AMD equivalent.

Only geeks like us and market analysts really realize what AMD's all about. Personally, I think they're both good companies and hope they BOTH continue to prosper.
 
Few are predicting record-setting PC sales this Christmas, at least form what I've read. If that happens and if the economy continues to teeter in general, Intel may be in trouble, at least in the short term. But if it still has those vast cash reserves I keep hearing about (they gotta be down a bit thanks to AMD) they'll weather that storm easily enough.

But what we really need for the mid-term are some software innovators to come up with some new CPU-intensive applications to actually make use of new cpus from Intel and amd. Creating a &quot;faster, richer internet experience&quot; is all well and good but nobody's gonna keep buying new machines every 2-3 years if something doesn't truly require that power.
 
Unfortunately, I agree with the majority of these posts. Intel has the public fooled into thinking their's is the best product. Secondly, MHz sells. Period. Therefore, the PIV should be a seller, even though it won't be significantly better than PIII's or Athlons under current benchmarks. Having said that, the new Athlon 1.2 Ghz should be a winner for AMD and more importantly make wall street and the buying public aware that there's a new speed king in town.

The biggest stumbling block for AMD is Dell. If Dell accepts AMD chips, then Wall St. will too. It took many years for Honda to develop the reputation it has; AMD will have to wait as well. Until then, buy AMD and go LOOONNGGG.

IMHO.
 
Ultimately, even if Intel really fell over, which I doubt, AMD cannot supply the market because they have a cap on their manufacturing capacity.

Intel's manufacturing might is still so many times bigger than AMD; if AMD were to manufacture at full tilt, they wouldn't be able to satisfy demand in the market.....that is made up my Intel.
 
Every tech-head with common sense knew that Intel was in deep trouble one year ago. What surprises me is that so many professional &quot;market gurus&quot; just woke up to this fact. WTF. Over? Dumb and dumber: AMD stock value is dragged down with Chipzilla's. I may not be as smart as I like to think, I don't have the dough to buy AMD common shares!

Any one with common sense that's &quot;blueprinting up&quot; a new PC to build for themselves is considering only two processors. Duron and T-Bird. Talk about value for your moolah!

You sure can't count Intel out of the picture. It's a gigantic company, and it only started making stoopid decisions roughly eighteen months ago. Soon enough the greedy idiots that are responsible for the VC and CC820, and the manifest death wish hand-holding with Rambus will no longer see their vulpine, short-sighted reflections in the boardroom table. Yet Intel's corporate mind-set may not change.

 
That's an excellent point JB.

It's hard to sell a lot of fast machines just for bragging rights. The vast majority of users are surfers and occaisonal word processor/spread sheet users. These people don't need anything more than about a P!! 450 right now. The hardcore gaming community and power app users, like multimedia developers, make-up a very small market segment. I think as digital image and music editing grows the perceived need for more powerful PCs will follow.
 
Some interesting points:

Greed

I honestly don't believe Intel can be accused of being any more greedy than any other manufacturer. They are trying to produce profits. If the consumer sees this as greed then profits (and brand loyality) may suffer. No, not greed, Intel has simply underestimated it's competition and made some bad technological forecasts (RAMBUS, 820, original Celeron without cache). These decision have definitely slowed it's enormous momentum, whether it's at the apogee we'll have to wait and see. I still think much is riding on P4.

You could almost see this coming. As if the collective Intel conscious said &quot;let them slave on this Athlon or whatever it is, the mighty P6 core will crush it even if they do manage to get silicon working, at competitive speeds, with good yeilds, with good motherboard support, etc... When you think about it, Intel was really playing the odds when it bet against AMD's Athlon. Well sometimes the underdog wins and that's what happened this time.

I'm no expert in microprocessors but I do know that it takes quite a while to develop a next generation chip and get it to market in quantity. The P4 came about very suddenly and has a rushed air about it. Unless Intel can pull off some type of miracle I think P4 is going to have to survive on MHz alone. They better hope the yields are good.

Stock Price

Intel must be doing something right because their earnings were good last week. I thought that AMD's impact would be seen this financial quarter. History has shown that the best time to buy Intel stock is between processor cycles and we're about there right now. The only difference between this cycle and the previous ones is that 386, 486, Pentium, and PII were aguably the best chips available. This may not be so with P4 and may make buying stock now a more &quot;risky scheme.&quot;
 
I pointed out the marketing stratagem that Intel pulled-off with the P!!!/Intel Inside. Wait 'til you see what they do with the P4.

People will buy the chip not only because of MHz, but because it's a Pentium 4. I think this is a fatal flaw in AMD's current branding approach. They should have called the T-Bird the Athlon !! or something, like they did with the K6s. You invest Mega$ in brand recognition, and then instead of just being able to change a digit, you have to re-orient consumers to a new moniker with each chip? It would be like Ford calling next year's Mustang an &quot;Athtang&quot;, then calling it a &quot;Tangalon&quot; the next model year, etc.

As an unsavvy consumer, with Intel not only do I get more MHz, but I also get the latest version of a recognized brand (Pentium). With AMD, I don't know what the hell the difference is between an Athlon, Duron, Thunderbird, etc. Makes it pretty easy to just grab the 'ol reliable Pentium 4 sitting right next to them.
 
Until AMD captures the hearts of the huge OEM market, Intel hasn't much to worry about. Chipzillah has a huge international market there. On the other hand, I'm surprised the big OEMs are not flocking to AMD faster. Large corporations do not change direction very fast. I notice the shift in loyalty around here among the hobbyists and it's happened fast. 🙂
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top