What do you guys think of AMD stock right now?

RgrPark

Golden Member
Mar 11, 2000
1,086
0
0
At around $15.50 it's the lowest its been in over a year.
I haven't been keeping up with technical developments but I think Intel's Core 2 duo just handed them their ass...?
So what do you guys think the outlook for AMD is? do you think they'll recover?
bottom line, good buy or not?
thanks
 

hans007

Lifer
Feb 1, 2000
20,212
18
81
in amd's history it has had a horrible reputation with the financial community.

ati was losing money when they bought them, and that well hasnt turned around. and amd's ASPs are falling for the forseeable future. probably could be worth looking at in the 12 to 13 range. core 2 and the intel price was is handing them their ass. that and i think there is a lot of sentiment that buying ATI + trying to build more fabs, and trying to hold off intel while being in debt was a bit more than they could chew.


i owned it back in 2004 btw, rode it from 12 to 25. amazingly i sold it, and bought a car. a week later it fell to like 14 (in 2005 january).

its a very volatile stock, and its lost about 60% of its value ( i think it was 42 last year or so).

but it doesnt look very good, though people might just be piling on and shorting now. it could probably fall more, when it finally bottoms out and has a week of being flat or up, maybe that would be a good buy point. could be anyday.
 
Jun 14, 2003
10,442
0
0
well AMD's native quad core is on the way (and they have some bold claims about performance since its not just a 4 core K8) so we'll see how that compares to Core2 duo and core 2 quad.

also

R600 GPU is here in march, and the rumours suggest its even faster than nvidia's G80 chip. its specs look really might though, 1gig of GDDR4, 512bit memory bus with 1024bit ring bus all squeezed on a 9inch PCB. its bound to be expensive, and possibly rare. but things are looking up for sure.

can some one point me to good stocks explanation?

what are stop and limit buys? what are the Nasdaq, NYSE, FTSE 100, Dow Jones etc? what the hell does volume mean (in stock terms), why wouldnt virtualtrader.co.uk let me buy 50,000 shares in corus? it only gave me 2042?
 

RgrPark

Golden Member
Mar 11, 2000
1,086
0
0
thank you both...the first reply answered what i wanted from a market point of view and the second reply the tech point of view.

otis, sorry i can't really help you too much...i'm not an expert either...i'd start with wiki and start typing things in.

thank you both.
 

hans007

Lifer
Feb 1, 2000
20,212
18
81
Originally posted by: otispunkmeyer
well AMD's native quad core is on the way (and they have some bold claims about performance since its not just a 4 core K8) so we'll see how that compares to Core2 duo and core 2 quad.

also

R600 GPU is here in march, and the rumours suggest its even faster than nvidia's G80 chip. its specs look really might though, 1gig of GDDR4, 512bit memory bus with 1024bit ring bus all squeezed on a 9inch PCB. its bound to be expensive, and possibly rare. but things are looking up for sure.

can some one point me to good stocks explanation?

what are stop and limit buys? what are the Nasdaq, NYSE, FTSE 100, Dow Jones etc? what the hell does volume mean (in stock terms), why wouldnt virtualtrader.co.uk let me buy 50,000 shares in corus? it only gave me 2042?



limit buy is when you buy only at a certain lower price

limit sell is when you sell only at a certain higher price

stop sell is when you sell only if it drops to a certain price (i think its generally called stop loss)

i dont think you have "stop buys" per se at least i've never heard that term used though i guess the principle is for if you are short. so a stop buy would cover a short position . so if you are short at $25 you could put an order in to cover it if it say went over $25.50 so you would stop.

basically stops , stop you from losing more , and limits generally are for starting a position or ending one with a gain.

at least thats my understanding of it.


dow jones is a company that forms indexes of stocks. standard and poors too (i.e. s&p 500) . nyse is new york stock exchange, nasdaq is another exchange, the ftse it hink is an index of 100 shares representing the frankfurt exchange.



lastly , i guess my general opinion on amd vs. intc as far as stocks is this. intel generally wins. they have tons of money and they are always ahead with process technology. it always seemed to me like, the yankees outspending some small market team . sure a team like tampa bay could proably beat the yankees, but i think if you wanted to play it safe, you'd probably say that the yankees would have to royally screw up to lose consistantly over time.

the only time amd really ever wins is if intel screws up or they come up with something really brilliant. the athlon 64 and the utter failure of prescott / smithfield etc, just happend to be like all the planets aligning for them thats why their stock had been doing great until about 9 months ago (around when core 2 stuff started leaking out etc).


now, who knows, ati fusion could be awesome. barcelona for all the rumors probably won't blow intels pants off, itll maybe be competitive. and since ati fusion wont be out for quite a while and is still an unknown then who knows. amd probably treads water for a while, maybe falls. plus you dontk now what intel has up its sleeve. that integrated cpu that has been talked about recently by intel could be better than ati fusion, or CSI based chips could be just around the corner, or AMD could miraculously win their lawsuit .

overall though amd probably isnt that safe a bet right now. if you wanna buy something and play it at least slightly safe, get intel.
 

rsd

Platinum Member
Dec 30, 2003
2,293
0
76
Why do people here think there is a correlation between a company's technology/products and its success on the stock market? I'm not financial guru, but I know enough to know that there is a lot more to valuating a company's stock than looking at what new chip they have coming out.
 

AMCRambler

Diamond Member
Jan 23, 2001
7,717
31
91
AMD is gonna drop more. Don't buy it yet. I've been watching it too and with the ATI acquisition they're gonna have to do a bunch of reorganzing I would think. Supposedly they're coming out with a quad core around the summer, so I'm thinking I'll watch it for another month or two and see what it does. I think it's going lower than $15. I'm looking at jumping in on it around $13-$14.
I was kicking myself for not buying it a year or two ago when it was $7-8 a share. I was afraid they were going under at that point though.
 

hans007

Lifer
Feb 1, 2000
20,212
18
81
Originally posted by: rsd
Why do people here think there is a correlation between a company's technology/products and its success on the stock market? I'm not financial guru, but I know enough to know that there is a lot more to valuating a company's stock than looking at what new chip they have coming out.

well... there is obviously some correlation.

if the new chip thats coming out, is so good / cheaper to make, company makes more money, gains market share, sells more chips , p/e ratio drops, dividends increase stock price goes up because profit estimates beaten? how is that not a correlation?

i mean sure ... the company making said chip could also have way too large a workforce, a million lawsuits going against them etc, but the product does matter. its obviously not a 1 to 1 correlatoin.
 

BigJ

Lifer
Nov 18, 2001
21,330
1
81
Originally posted by: rsd
Why do people here think there is a correlation between a company's technology/products and its success on the stock market? I'm not financial guru, but I know enough to know that there is a lot more to valuating a company's stock than looking at what new chip they have coming out.

Sure there's a lot other stuff, but when companies pump billions into R&D for new products, especially those they're relying on for at least some future success in the market, it's something to take into consideration
 

hans007

Lifer
Feb 1, 2000
20,212
18
81
Originally posted by: AMCRambler
AMD is gonna drop more. Don't buy it yet. I've been watching it too and with the ATI acquisition they're gonna have to do a bunch of reorganzing I would think. Supposedly they're coming out with a quad core around the summer, so I'm thinking I'll watch it for another month or two and see what it does. I think it's going lower than $15. I'm looking at jumping in on it around $13-$14.
I was kicking myself for not buying it a year or two ago when it was $7-8 a share. I was afraid they were going under at that point though.

this is also not exactly rampant cpu buying part of the year. intel and amd are pretty cyclical. tech stocks , well a lot of them anyway fall in the summer, rise before back to school, rise into xmas. etc.
 

Pocatello

Diamond Member
Oct 11, 1999
9,754
2
76
Originally posted by: rsd
Why do people here think there is a correlation between a company's technology/products and its success on the stock market? I'm not financial guru, but I know enough to know that there is a lot more to valuating a company's stock than looking at what new chip they have coming out.

I think this time there is correlation. Things started going downhill for AMD ever since intel released core 2, IMO.
 

LS20

Banned
Jan 22, 2002
5,858
0
0
Originally posted by: hans007
well... there is obviously some correlation.

if the new chip thats coming out, is so good / cheaper to make, company makes more money, gains market share, sells more chips , p/e ratio drops, dividends increase stock price goes up because profit estimates beaten? how is that not a correlation?

i mean sure ... the company making said chip could also have way too large a workforce, a million lawsuits going against them etc, but the product does matter. its obviously not a 1 to 1 correlatoin.

because their products' performance and market performance are far removed. i dont like to quote chavez but our market economy is too speculative
 

UDT89

Diamond Member
Jul 31, 2001
4,529
0
76
i shoulda bought it when i graduated college back in december 2002. i used AMD all through college. it was $3 back then
 

AndrewR

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
11,157
0
0
I've been watching for awhile and jumped in a little. I have some more money if it keeps dropping, but the pressure lately was from their recent loss posting and from the superior performance of Intel's dual core. The kicker is their upcoming quad core processors which should increase their market share and profitability from sales in the server market. I could see it dipping a bit more, but when the quad core comes out, I would expect it to rise a fair amount. Also, lately pressure has been on the entire tech market, not just AMD. Today the Dow just barely rose while AMD went up over 1%. Intel, by contrast, actually fell today in after hours trading.

I've only lost $50 or so since I bought it, and I'm hopeful for the long run. I have two AMD processors right now so I've helped myself out as a shareholder. :D
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: LS20
Originally posted by: hans007
well... there is obviously some correlation.

if the new chip thats coming out, is so good / cheaper to make, company makes more money, gains market share, sells more chips , p/e ratio drops, dividends increase stock price goes up because profit estimates beaten? how is that not a correlation?

i mean sure ... the company making said chip could also have way too large a workforce, a million lawsuits going against them etc, but the product does matter. its obviously not a 1 to 1 correlatoin.

because their products' performance and market performance are far removed. i dont like to quote chavez but our market economy is too speculative


I would agree that sometimes the market goes to far sometimes in it's movements towards (or away from) risky assets. This is greatly influenced by irrational exuberance by people who think that a kick-arse product is going to yield tons of revenue. The ramp-up of AMD to it's 30+ level was simply stupid and was only there because computer geeks thought the price should go up because the latest chips.

Product performance and market performance are linked in some ways. However, I think the danger comes when ordinary people, who know little about overhead, R&D costs, and volume production with economies of scale and scope, get all giddy over a product. If you look at a new product rationally you can link them.

What this comes down to is thorough analysis, not just about one product.
 
Jun 14, 2003
10,442
0
0
arent stock prices kinda based on how people percieve the company?

like all the bad press apple got over some dodgey accounting practice and stocks went down, jobs opens his trap about dropping DRM and now theyre going back up?
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Shares will rise when Barcelona soft/hard launches this summer. Barcelona won't give AMD the outright lead, but it will make them competitive again (a little ahead in some areas, behind in others) and that is something that the stock market will perceive as a positive move. AMD also owns the high-end server market (anything 8-cores/4-sockets and up) with Intel unable to challenge until late 2007/early 2008; again something the market will notice, correlating to a rise in stock price later this year.

Someone mentioned cyclical, and that's right on the money. When Intel launches Penryn/Tigerton near 2008, AMD's stock will probably drop again. With Intel being so far ahead with their 45nm process, AMD will be playing catch-up for the near future. I don't think it will sink the company though; they have been in this situation before, in a fistfight with the 800 lb gorilla.

People have short memories. Core 2 Duo was an amazing design from Intel, but AMD did the same thing a couple years earlier with K8. K8 and X2 held the performance crown for a good amount of time. Either company is capable of breakthroughs; both have the best engineers in the world working for them.

The market can definitely sustain two big CPU manufacturers. We don't want Intel to be the next monopoly ala Microsoft. If AMD goes the way of the Dodo, Intel will have no pressure to innovate, to slash prices, to compete for our business.
 

AndrewR

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
11,157
0
0
People mention the cost of new fabs and the lag in manufacturing process of AMD, but they have ALWAYS been building new fabs and have always been behind Intel in the most advanced manufacturing process. One key ingredient that's being ignored is that Dell just started selling AMD, and AMD managed a coup with tagging onto Microsoft's Vista promotions (saw one last night on TV -- had an AMD logo with "The Smarter Choice" or something like that underneath). Their sales should rise based on those facts.
 

Susquehannock

Member
Nov 18, 2004
114
0
0
Well, I have been trading AMD stock options for a few years now. Rode the calls from 18 to 35. Then turned
the tables with some puts from 38 to 20. Made a killing :D

If this tells you anything, I have a couple strikes set around $12, and a few more in the $9 range.