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What do the "traditional" HDD makers have planned?

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I don't see SSD's as be-all, end-all solutions like some of you are saying. The biggest problem here is that while they are touted for performance, the performance variations act more "digital" than "analog". At one moment, the SSD performs brilliantly, in another it drops like a rock. No platter HDDs filled to full/near full drops like SSD does, no matter how good the SSD is.

It's very stupid as it makes the advertised capacity irrelevant as the practical capacity is really 70-80%, unlike platter HDDs which doesn't degrade that much when full/near full.

Plus, the cost/GB is ridiculously high. Sure, flash is subject to Moore's law or w/e. Look at magnetic HDD presentations. They scale faster than Moore's law does.

1 Terabyte is at almost the bottom of the barrel pricing.

The thing I want is a well-implemented hybrid solution with very high throughput low-capacity flash(say 8GB with 500MB/s transfer) and a regular drive. Ideally, you'll get the best of both worlds.
 
regular HDD also lose performance when near full.. and while the RELATIVE drop is greater, a full intel SSD still spanks a full spindle disk.
There is no reason for hybrid solutions, or anyone to MAKE them.. space is rapidly increasing and price is rapidly going down. It will take at least two years to build such a solution, and in two years it will already be obsolete. The colossus and the new TLC chips will soon take care of space. While cost is constantly going down as economics of scale and new techniques are developed.
 
Originally posted by: IntelUser2000
I don't see SSD's as be-all, end-all solutions like some of you are saying. The biggest problem here is that while they are touted for performance, the performance variations act more "digital" than "analog". At one moment, the SSD performs brilliantly, in another it drops like a rock. No platter HDDs filled to full/near full drops like SSD does, no matter how good the SSD is.

It's very stupid as it makes the advertised capacity irrelevant as the practical capacity is really 70-80%, unlike platter HDDs which doesn't degrade that much when full/near full.

Plus, the cost/GB is ridiculously high. Sure, flash is subject to Moore's law or w/e. Look at magnetic HDD presentations. They scale faster than Moore's law does.

1 Terabyte is at almost the bottom of the barrel pricing.

The thing I want is a well-implemented hybrid solution with very high throughput low-capacity flash(say 8GB with 500MB/s transfer) and a regular drive. Ideally, you'll get the best of both worlds.

I can't tell if your post is restricted to representing your opinion of a static snapshot of the SSD evolution at this very moment in time, or if you are attempting to castigate the entire future lineage of SSD's in fell swoop.

Hard drive manufacturers have run into a problem, and it was no more evident to me than a month ago when I went to buy hard-drives. The problem is their drive capacity trend has outstripped the consumer needs of the vast vast majority of the market.

I don't care whether $75 gets me 500GB, 1TB, or 10TBs...for $65 I can buy all the hard-drive space I need to house my photos and emails for the next 10yrs. It was a little different a decade a go when even the top-range capacity model was barely enough for my datafiles and the top-end model cost $800...but now the price tiers have collapsed so badly that the highest capacity tier (2TB) is a mere $200 SKU but it hardly matters because I can get 1TB drives for $75 and 1TB is about 5x more than my current storage capacity needs.

Sure there are those video-file HTPC examples where 10TB is not enough, and enterprise is enterprise, but the consumer market has pretty much saturated the need for higher capacity drives regardless how cheap they are.

This happened in the digital camera memory market too (and ipod/zune music capacity)...I just bought a 4GB memory stick for $10 just for the hell of it because it was so damn cheap to replace my already more than sufficient 1GB memory stick. I never once in 2yrs came close to filling my 1GB memory stick and I take a lot of pics and videos with my camera, now for $10 I have 4x that capacity. Completely unnecessary. What are they going to sell in 2yrs time? 16GB for 2$? Maybe 1% of the digital camera market would actually need such a product, and the cost to sell it will reflect that.

So that's my view on where spindle-drives are headed. They've exceeded the bounds of the consumer market's needs when it comes to capacity, sans the videophiles, and prices have collapsed ridiculously so.

I don't care to have a 1TB SSD, at any price, all that is relevant to me (and any non-techie I interact with, like family and friends) is that the absolute price of an SSD of the capacity that tends to address the market's needs (say ~200GB to 400GB) falls to a pricepoint that makes the purchase decision one of "who cares?". At 65$ for 1TB drives I definitely did not care to try and save another $5 by buying a 750GB model, also more capacity than I need, the pricepoint is below what I spend taking my family of four out for Friday night dinner at Red Robin. SSD's of the necessary capacity are only with 2-3yrs of reaching this pricepoint.
 
Originally posted by: frostedflakes
Yup, I'd imagine it will be a while before SSDs can catch up to traditional disks in $/GB. They're worth the price premium as an OS/apps drive, but for storing movies/music/whatever, they're totally unnecessary; traditional disks rotating at 5400RPM offer more than adequate performance.
While I agree with you, laptops have now outsold desktops, and few laptops have bays for two drives. Space does matter (although Id rather see one SSD and one magenetic than an SSD and an optical, for just that reason).

The raptor's claim to fame WAS the wave of the future, less space, better seek times. Its just that SSDs have improved on both of those by a HUGE amount, with less power usage, smaller space, and zero noise added as kickers.
 
Originally posted by: taltamir
regular HDD also lose performance when near full.. and while the RELATIVE drop is greater, a full intel SSD still spanks a full spindle disk.
There is no reason for hybrid solutions, or anyone to MAKE them.. space is rapidly increasing and price is rapidly going down. It will take at least two years to build such a solution, and in two years it will already be obsolete. The colossus and the new TLC chips will soon take care of space. While cost is constantly going down as economics of scale and new techniques are developed.

The X25-M G1(firmware 8870, it used to be worse) starts freezing at 60-70% capacity or so. It's definitely the SSD because even my 3600RPM system doesn't respond like that. It freezes, but its somewhat predictable, unlike regular real freezing. Like I would sometimes open up firefox and load up two tabs, but one would not show up for 15-20 secs or so. So I would close the tab(and sometimes the window), and it would often happen 2nd and 3rd times.

See, its like gaming. If games ran at 60 fps consistent, no one would need more than that. Unfortunately, unlike video, the 60 fps is average of the fluctuation, which makes it not as playable for some people.

So I bought a 80GB drive. The usable capacity is really 60-70% of that. I probably would have torn my hair out if I owned any first gen SSDs. Next purchase, will be a dual RAID spindle drive. I enjoy it, but its bittersweet you know, spending $750 early-adaopter fee.
 
that is very interesting... i think something might be wrong with your drive... you should run some more tests, maybe contact intel for an RMA.
Intel X25-M G1 should never take 15 SECONDS to get you the data, ever.
 
Originally posted by: taltamir
there is no raptor that fits into a laptop

Actually there is, in certain circumstances. You can take the VelociRaptor out of the heatsink and void the warranty, or purchase the more expensive version that comes without the heatsink. Then, you would have a 2.5" drive, albeit one that is a bit too thick to fit in most notebooks. There are a few, however, that can fit thicker drives. Note that WD is coming out with a 1TB 2.5" drive that is thicker than the now "standard" 9.5mm, so it isn't a unique problem.
 
Originally posted by: Zap
Originally posted by: taltamir
there is no raptor that fits into a laptop

Actually there is, in certain circumstances. You can take the VelociRaptor out of the heatsink and void the warranty, or purchase the more expensive version that comes without the heatsink. Then, you would have a 2.5" drive, albeit one that is a bit too thick to fit in most notebooks. There are a few, however, that can fit thicker drives. Note that WD is coming out with a 1TB 2.5" drive that is thicker than the now "standard" 9.5mm, so it isn't a unique problem.

the velociraptor does NOT fit into the vast majority of laptops... sure there ARE some that can fit it... heck, you might even be able to shove a 3.5 inch drive into SOME laptops with some case mods... but the vast majority expect it toconform to the entire 2.5 inch spec, meaning in hight as well.
 
Originally posted by: Idontcare
Originally posted by: taltamir
Recently intel and jmicron announced 3 bit cells (MLC is 2 bit cells, SLC is 1 bit cells), which means 50% increase in space for same production cost (at a yet unkown performance cost).

Sandisk and Toshiba had announced earlier this year to, Jan timeframe. Unfortunately its not a clean 50% increase for same cost as the actual bit-cell itself increases in size by about 20% in order to accommodate the necessary electrical attributes for handling the additional charge levels.

This might be improved upon in time, at the expense of cell lifetime though, so don't count on this being the panacea of low-cost flash chips in the coming years. If this falls out as a net 20% cost reducer I'd be impressed.

We at SanDisk have been SHIPPING 3LC for at least 6 months already.
 
What happened to Seagate? It seems most of the company's problems seems to have stemmed from Bill Watkins, the straight-talk, all hip former CEO. The "Bush" of Seagate.

Seagate's problem isn't really because of Maxtor's digestion. I was at Maxtor when the merger happens and the whole policy was to use Seagate for everything, because at the time Maxtor was not as advanced in technologies due to the lack of internal head design and an older ASIC architecture (still assembly firmware).

The problem is after WD purchased readrite and got a much more advanced head than Seagate, so in the end Seagate try to squeeze the density too much and got into reliability problem.

BTW, it is a matter of time before a HD company get into serious reliability problem, it happens to every company once in a while.

 
Actually, there are a lot of things that HD companies are doing to combat the SSD market.

Seagate for example, have a skunkwork team with Micron working on integrating the analog read channel a HD uses to amplify its signal into the NAND. Samsung already has a FAB, so there is nothing for them to worry about. Not sure about WD, but since they have close relationship with Marvell and Marvell is working on SSD ASIC, I wouldn't be surprised that eventually one of the HD companies will merge with a NAND FAB company.

The problem is, most of the money in SSD is made in selling more NAND flash, and it is very difficult to design and build NAND flash effectively all by yourself. HD is still holding on to the absolute price and relative reliability advantage over SSD, that unless in the future the smallest HD to be profitable would be 500GB and people only need 64GB, and the smallest SSD will cost less than the smallest HD, will HD becomes obsolete in desktop or laptop.

Server will still have HD in the future for large volume low usage data, in combination with SSD.
 
Originally posted by: PandaBear
What happened to Seagate? It seems most of the company's problems seems to have stemmed from Bill Watkins, the straight-talk, all hip former CEO. The "Bush" of Seagate.

Seagate's problem isn't really because of Maxtor's digestion. I was at Maxtor when the merger happens and the whole policy was to use Seagate for everything, because at the time Maxtor was not as advanced in technologies due to the lack of internal head design and an older ASIC architecture (still assembly firmware).

The problem is after WD purchased readrite and got a much more advanced head than Seagate, so in the end Seagate try to squeeze the density too much and got into reliability problem.

BTW, it is a matter of time before a HD company get into serious reliability problem, it happens to every company once in a while.

so they paid all this money for a company that gave them nothing? ending up using their own existing products under the old company's name?
 
Originally posted by: taltamir
Originally posted by: PandaBear
What happened to Seagate? It seems most of the company's problems seems to have stemmed from Bill Watkins, the straight-talk, all hip former CEO. The "Bush" of Seagate.

Seagate's problem isn't really because of Maxtor's digestion. I was at Maxtor when the merger happens and the whole policy was to use Seagate for everything, because at the time Maxtor was not as advanced in technologies due to the lack of internal head design and an older ASIC architecture (still assembly firmware).

The problem is after WD purchased readrite and got a much more advanced head than Seagate, so in the end Seagate try to squeeze the density too much and got into reliability problem.

BTW, it is a matter of time before a HD company get into serious reliability problem, it happens to every company once in a while.

so they paid all this money for a company that gave them nothing? ending up using their own existing products under the old company's name?

I think there would be a cross licensing or some sort of R&D deal between them. Sort of like how SanDisk and Toshiba works together, one on NAND design and the other on fabrication process, and share the FAB output at cost.

No one is paying everything for nothing.
 
Originally posted by: Idontcare
Originally posted by: PandaBear
We at SanDisk have been SHIPPING 3LC for at least 6 months already.

What is it shipping in? Thumbdrives?

Memory Stick and some SD, however this really depends on the yield and process of the memory so it is subject to change. For example, 43nm 3LC and 32nm MLC are about the same size/cost, so when your 32nm process mature, you stop making 43nm 3LC and start using 32nm MLC, and when 32nm 3LC is mature, you switch to 32nm 3LC and then when 24nm MLC is mature, you switch to that.

It is all about timing, yield, cost, and maturity of the latest technologies.
 
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