What did I miss? Obama just jumped 1.5 points on RCP

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Did I miss some breaking news or something? I'm watching RCP like a hawk (they block 583 at work, due to it being a blog site) and Obama jumped from 5.4 to 6.9
What did I miss??
This is great news!

 

[yowolabi]

I'd go crazy if I watched the polls that closely. My guess is that the jump isn't statistically significant.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Polls shift around a lot. I wouldn't read too much into it... they will shift around a lot more in the next two weeks.

As for 538, so far McCain has posted small but meaningful gains there. Their statistical model went from giving him a 4.2% chance to win at its lowest point a week or so ago to having a 7.5% chance today. Not big numbers, but a significant increase.

Part of the low polling for McCain last week was likely because of West Virginia. Several polls showed it as being a toss-up, but since then a few more have come out showing the state to be not nearly that close.

 

[Farang]

Looks like the Pew outlier helped that.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Originally posted by: Farang
Looks like the Pew outlier helped that.

Yeah, that's crazy. No way Obama is leading 53-39 in the popular vote.

 

[techs]

Either the country is impressed he suspended his campaign to visit his sick grandmother, or else they were just happy not to hear from him for awhile

 

[AstroManLuca]

Originally posted by: techs
Either the country is impressed he suspended his campaign to visit his sick grandmother, or else they were just happy not to hear from him for awhile

Nah, we won't see a "grandmother bounce" for at least another day.

 

[yowolabi]

Originally posted by: AstroManLuca

Originally posted by: techs
Either the country is impressed he suspended his campaign to visit his sick grandmother, or else they were just happy not to hear from him for awhile

Nah, we won't see a "grandmother bounce" for at least another day.

I don't know why i find "grandmother bouce" so funny.

 

[Pepsei]

let's not get too cocky... it's not over until nov 5th.

we all have to do our part , 2 weeks is a long time.

 

[StageLeft]

Well, let's see it takes about 60-90 minutes for the poison to fully kick in and reports are coming in that several hours ago the koolaid was passed around by the cult leader, so this sounds about right.

 

[retrospooty]

They just updated with more polls, thats all... Also, the Pew outlier at + 14% is off, but so it the GWU battleground at +1% so it evens out.

 

[nageov3t]

IT'S A WAVE!

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

ok, so nothing major happened.

 

[fskimospy]

You'll make yourself insane if you watch the polls that closely. It's the same as investing in the stock market.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
You'll make yourself insane if you watch the polls that closely. It's the same as investing in the stock market.

You're under the assumption I'm not already, 8 years of dumbya has me gripping the bars in a padded cell. I am scared to death that something may happen, like in 2000, to get McCain into the white house, and even scarier, Caribou Barbie as second in command.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti

Originally posted by: eskimospy
You'll make yourself insane if you watch the polls that closely. It's the same as investing in the stock market.

You're under the assumption I'm not already, 8 years of dumbya has me gripping the bars in a padded cell. I am scared to death that something may happen, like in 2000, to get McCain into the white house, and even scarier, Caribou Barbie as second in command.

BINGO.

The polls have been going back and forth. Obama took an 8.4% "average" just over a week ago. It fell to 4.7% during the last few days and has risen back up slowly over the last day + to it's current level. Not sure whether it's noise or if something (Powell?) moved it along. Time will tell if it's noise or a trend.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti

Originally posted by: eskimospy
You'll make yourself insane if you watch the polls that closely. It's the same as investing in the stock market.

You're under the assumption I'm not already, 8 years of dumbya has me gripping the bars in a padded cell. I am scared to death that something may happen, like in 2000, to get McCain into the white house, and even scarier, Caribou Barbie as second in command.

Yeah, I feel you. I know Obama's up by somewhere around 5-8 points, which the political scientist in me says is pretty damn good considering the polarization of America. The rest of me is scared because he's not up by 20.

 

[Stoneburner]

Well look at gallup.

Registered plus 11 for obama
Likely Voters (2004) - Plus 7 for obama
LIkely Voters II shows plus 11 for obama.

So even the poll that projo was cherry picking a few days ago shows obama up 7? Based on a model that by all accounts understates dems actual turnout?

 

[yllus]

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti

Originally posted by: eskimospy
You'll make yourself insane if you watch the polls that closely. It's the same as investing in the stock market.

You're under the assumption I'm not already, 8 years of dumbya has me gripping the bars in a padded cell. I am scared to death that something may happen, like in 2000, to get McCain into the white house, and even scarier, Caribou Barbie as second in command.

You know, I really hate when people make light of female politicians by alluding to things like their looks, but "Caribou Barbie" is straight up awesome.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti

Originally posted by: eskimospy
You'll make yourself insane if you watch the polls that closely. It's the same as investing in the stock market.

You're under the assumption I'm not already, 8 years of dumbya has me gripping the bars in a padded cell. I am scared to death that something may happen, like in 2000, to get McCain into the white house, and even scarier, Caribou Barbie as second in command.

Yeah, I feel you. I know Obama's up by somewhere around 5-8 points, which the political scientist in me says is pretty damn good considering the polarization of America. The rest of me is scared because he's not up by 20.

That's exactly my point, Obama needs to win by alot. The more votes he wins by, the bigger his political capital.

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

Originally posted by: yllus

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti

Originally posted by: eskimospy
You'll make yourself insane if you watch the polls that closely. It's the same as investing in the stock market.

You're under the assumption I'm not already, 8 years of dumbya has me gripping the bars in a padded cell. I am scared to death that something may happen, like in 2000, to get McCain into the white house, and even scarier, Caribou Barbie as second in command.

You know, I really hate when people make light of female politicians by alluding to things like their looks, but "Caribou Barbie" is straight up awesome.

Totally, 100% stolen, I wish I could take credit, but no. And yes, I agree, but you're right Caribou Barbie is the best in a very long time.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: Sheik Yerbouti

Originally posted by: eskimospy
You'll make yourself insane if you watch the polls that closely. It's the same as investing in the stock market.

You're under the assumption I'm not already, 8 years of dumbya has me gripping the bars in a padded cell. I am scared to death that something may happen, like in 2000, to get McCain into the white house, and even scarier, Caribou Barbie as second in command.

Yeah, I feel you. I know Obama's up by somewhere around 5-8 points, which the political scientist in me says is pretty damn good considering the polarization of America. The rest of me is scared because he's not up by 20.

That's exactly my point, Obama needs to win by alot. The more votes he wins by, the bigger his political capital.

He won't win by a lot. (well, I guess it depends on what your definition of 'a lot' is) America is extremely polarized at the moment, and the two parties have totally lost the overlap they used to share until it began eroding 40 years ago. 5% really is about the most I can envision any presidential candidate winning by for quite awhile.