<< I've been running Zonealarm since I've had cable, and it's constantly logging attempted port scans etc. My friend has had cable for a month or so and hasn't been running any type of firewall, what kind of trouble could he be in for? I know a lot of the alerts are innocent, but still... >>
Generally speaking, you will get plenty of port scans on a cable/dsl connection. I am running a Netgear router and reject most port scans, so its not a big deal to me since they can't get in.
Typically, if someone scans your box, they are looking for the most common ports to get files from your system. Ports 21 (FTP) and 139 (Windows networking) are the favorites to look for since most people run a MS operating system and when you find these open, you can start to probe it for file sharing, etc. If you have sharing on your Windows 98 box enabled, someone could potentially get onto your box's file system and delete, modify and even put some infected trojan files onto your system with you knowing it.
With ZoneAlarm on and customized correctly, you are generally protected from these types of things from happening. If your friend isn't running anything, he should be *somewhat* concerned about security, but if he turns his PC off when he's not using it, then there less risk of anything happening at all.
Its better to be safe than sorry, so I would run at _least_ ZoneAlarm for protection. In my case, I have a hardware filter (my Netgear router) that denies most incoming request from the internet to my own network.
If you want to check out the vulnerabilities of your network and your friends, go to grc.com and vulnerabilities.org for security scans that give out basic information about what is/isn't available on the box. The scans are pretty quick and accurate enough for most needs. I have my filters up so I always receive a "stealth" rating from those sites.
vash