Short term gains are taxed at the ordinary income tax rate. Long term capital gains are basically savings and investments. If you want to greatly reduce the incentives to invest for the long term and only care about short term, go ahead and try to raise it. Millionaires and billionaires can survive a crash. Can you?
If we change the law, we just change taxation on investments, IRAs, and 401ks. Short-term transactions within IRAs are already exempt from short-term gains taxes, and we should extend that to 401ks as well.
- All capital gains not in IRAs or 401ks are just added to your income and taxed normally. Doesn't matter if they're short-term or long-term. Just add them, and be done with it.
- Illegalize the Roth backdoor.
- Eliminate the 25% income inclusion for solo K. Reduce employer contribution limits to 2x poverty line.
- Set withdrawal tax cap to 15% for IRA and 401k.
Most Americans can't afford to fully-fund these tax-advantaged accounts anyway. Those that can will still be protected even more than now by lowering the top withdrawal tax rate.
In the case of the IRA accounts, at $500/month x 30 years x 10% annual growth (avg for S&P 500) = $1 million, minus 15% tax on withdrawals. You can withdraw $7,974 a month, minus 15% tax = $6,777 a month after taxes. Indefinitely. Now, tell me, how many of these Americans you have in your mind who would be hurt by such a long-term capital gains tax actually contributes more than $6,000 a year to retirement?
The Roth IRA offers a means for people to, after 30 years of contributions, at average 10% gain per year, pre-tax, to get $100,000 a year in retirement funds in perpetuity, on average. That's more than enough for most Americans (yes, accounting for inflation, which leaves you at a 2020-equivalent of about $58,800 a year --- $4,100 a month after tax... which is still above the national average income).
If you have money beyond this in retirement, congratulations! You're one of the richest Americans! The average American has less than $200,000 in their retirement account.