What are the chances of survival? Scenario inside

[DaTT]

Here's the scenario;

You are armed with a .22 pistol and the threatening person is 15 yards away. You only have time to point and shoot, you can't sit there and aim the gun properly. Let's say you have half a second. Also, you only have 1 round in the gun. You are not a trained marksman, but you know how to use your gun.

Do you hit him?
Is it a kill shot?

I am just curious as for some reason I was thinking about this today at work. What are your thoughts?

 

[HamburgerBoy]

I know how to use a gun but not how to aim properly? And you're asking what the chances are of hitting somebody with one shot without being able to aim? I'll go with low.

EDIT: And you didn't even state what this "threatening person" was going to do to me.

 

[amdhunter]

Does he have Skittles and Iced Tea? Or a diploma from an Ivy League college?

 

[LTC8K6]

Is he armed?

Can I wait a bit and put my one round in his head?

 

[DaTT]

I know how to use a gun but not how to aim properly? And you're asking what the chances are of hitting somebody with one shot without being able to aim? I'll go with low.

EDIT: And you didn't even state what this "threatening person" was going to do to me.

Just a point and shoot, not really looking down the sights as you would at the range.

 

[DaTT]

Is he armed?

Can I wait a bit and put my one round in his head?

You have one shot and around half a second to pull it off, is he dead, down, or did you miss?

 

[HamburgerBoy]

You have one shot and around half a second to pull it off, is he dead, down, or did you miss?

What if he shrugs it off and kills you anyways?

 

[IAteYourMother]

I would probably just run away

 

[Baked]

Aim for the body, when he's stunt, run up to him and smash him in the face with the butt of the gun.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

Hard to miss at that range, but in a snap shot in the hands of an untrained person odds off a hit are 50/50 at best. Odds of a fatal hit with a .22 are VERY slim. Odds of stopping the attacker are maybe 50/50 on a hit, so 1/4 total.

 

[DesiPower]

Is he a lawyer? then before you shoot you make damn sure that you can kill him with your bare hands if necessary. Pointing a gun at him and letting him go alive would be a big mistake...

 

[xanis]

Aim for the body, when he's stunt, run up to him and smash him in the face with the butt of the gun.

This. You're most likely not going to kill him, but I think you'd be able to stun him enough to make a run for it.

 

[Merad]

If he is 15 yards away and stationary then you have probably less than 2 seconds to react before he is on you. All you can really do is snap a shot off at center mass. The .22 probably will only stop him if you get lucky and damage his spine, brain, or maybe shatter a hip. Even if you hit him in the heart I'd imagine it would take 30+ seconds before he loses consciousness from blood loss.

This is all assuming that the guy will attack you no matter what, that is the sight of the gun won't stop him and he'll keep attacking unless he's physically incapable of continuing.

IRL though he'll probably turn and run when he sees the gun, assuming he's an average mugger/thug.

 

[Paladin3]

As long as it's a decent sized pistol with a decent trigger pull, I would be fairly confident that I could hit a person sized target at 15 yards. The problem is that the .22 doesn't have much stopping power, so a one-shot stop would be very questionable.

 

[Merad]

Hard to miss at that range, but in a snap shot in the hands of an untrained person odds off a hit are 50/50 at best. Odds of a fatal hit with a .22 are VERY slim. Odds of stopping the attacker are maybe 50/50 on a hit, so 1/4 total.

Odds of a fatal hit with any handgun are pretty damn low. IIRC if you make it to the hospital with a pulse there's a 95% survival rate for gunshot wounds.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Is it zombies? Is there someone else nearby?

Shoot the other person in the leg.

"I don't need to run faster than the wolves, I just need to run faster than you."

 

[Fayd]

if my experience with EVE online tells me anything, you're best off shooting now. if you wait for him to get to close, his angular velocity will be too high and you'll have no chance of hitting him.

 

[SViper]

A few things would factor into that situation:

1. If you pull out your gun to shoot with intent to stop the threat, you are going to have a major adrenaline dump into your bloodstream, making taking your time to aim almost impossible. Even if you train at a range every single day, it's not going to prepare you for a life or death situation such as this.

2. A single .22 round isn't going to have much stopping power or cause a lot of damage. As Merad said, unless you hit something like the spinal cord, brain, or hip (the odds of which are extremely low), the assailant is still going to be coming after you. It isn't like the movies where someone gets shot and instantly falls to the ground. Hell, with a .22, unless you even hit an artery or major vein, they aren't even going to bleed out anytime soon. They probably won't even register they got hit.

3. Drawing your gun from concealment, aiming, and firing is going to take longer than half a second. If you take a look at a few concealed carry forums, the goal is to train to the point where you can draw, aim, and shoot from concealment in less than 2 seconds. This also excludes the time it takes for you to view and acknowledge the threat. Does the assailant have a melee weapon where they have to come up to you to hurt you? If they already have a gun out and aimed at you, there is no way you can draw, aim, and shoot faster than they can pull the trigger. Odds are you won't get hit, and if you do get hit, it won't be immediately life threatening (as getting shot goes anyway). Do you think you can shoot well under that kind of pressure?

So to answer your questions, the odds of you hitting your target are slim, and the odds of the shot being fatal are even slimmer.

Most often in the real world, when you make a move such as reaching for your weapon, the average mugger will find somewhere else he has to be in a hurry. Your body posture will show that you aren't an easy target and that they have the threat of death if they pursue you. You are no longer "easy pickings," and it isn't worth it to continue to come after you.

 

[SandEagle]

a .22? lol. go for the eye.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

Why waste a perfectly good round? Just hit him with the gun (keep your finger off the trigger).

 

[jlee]

A better question is who is carrying a damn single shot .22?

 

[SlitheryDee]

I'd say my chances of survival are pretty high. If I hit him anywhere at all I'm likely to wound him sufficiently to win the subsequent hand to hand fight. Of course if he is equally armed and I draw faster than him, any wound is likely to throw his aim off somewhat. Since the scenario doesn't specifically say that the assailant has a gun, I'll assume that he doesnt have one.

 

[BladeVenom]

Two different sources put a round of CCI Stinger .22LR at 34% and 38% one shot stops.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Why waste a perfectly good round? Just hit him with the gun (keep your finger off the trigger).

One round from a .22 does bring to mind the derringer scene in the Simpsons Huck Finn / Tom Sawyer parody.

 

[Jaepheth]

.22 LR?

or .22 magnum?