What a trade war with Asia would look like if Trump wins.

[Mai72]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.wsj....a-1459270919?client=ms-android-hms-tmobile-us

Interesting article.

If Trump wins and goes thru with his threat to impose a 45% across the board tariff on imports, he could throw the markets right into chaos.

 

[theeedude]

https://www.google.com/amp/www.wsj....a-1459270919?client=ms-android-hms-tmobile-us

Interesting article.

If Trump wins and goes thru with his threat to impose a 45% across the board tariff on imports, he could throw the markets right into chaos.

The stocks would probably take a direct hit.

Basically Great Depression 2.0.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act
If you look at how much stocks drop vs odds of Trump winning increasing, the market is pricing a 15% hit from Trump presidency before he even does anything, just from the "suspense" from turning the US government into a freak reality show. Who wants to invest in a country that elects people like Trump? It's like investing in a Trump casino.

 

[flexy]

I don't support Trump, but massive tariffs on imports I would actually support, DESPITE knowing it would cause chaos or even an economic collapse. Except that I don't believe at all that Trump would do this. If he'd really do it (and this not just being one of his empty talks), he'd actually win a bonus point from me.

 

[sportage]

And kick me for saying this.....
But if Trump should win, I do so want to see all of my Trump family suffer to extremes.
They think Trump is the best thing since sliced bread, and amazingly they are all middle class, all employed with homes and nice cars. But all of that for them could easily EASILY disappear under Donald Trump presidency.
They have early voted for Trump.
And if Trump wins, I want THEM to suffer the consequences of their foolish poor judgment.

And I do know one thing...
What attracted them to Trump was his bigotry.
The wall. Rounding up Hispanics and shipping them off. Hating Muslims and especially when they see a woman in any store wearing one of those head scarfs, that just drives them nuts.

So, it was the Trump bigotry that drew my Trump supporting family to Donald Trump in the first place.
Naturally, they will never admit that, but I know how they are.
I've heard them rant on and on about all of those blankety blank Mexicans shopping at Walmart, or those Muslim women shopping at Target.

So if my Trump family is willing to bet the farm and lose everything, and most importantly gamble their very job over advancing the bigotry, well then Donald Trump is the guy.

Just imagine if Trump were elected and all hell broke lose, Trump himself would blame Obama, or blacks, or martians.
And all those that voted and elected Trump would go right along with the Trump denial, completely ignoring the fact that Donald Trump has no clue what the hell he is doing.

 

[Mai72]

And kick me for saying this.....
But if Trump should win, I do so want to see all of my Trump family suffer to extremes.
They think Trump is the best thing since sliced bread, and amazingly they are all middle class, all employed with homes and nice cars. But all of that for them could easily EASILY disappear under Donald Trump presidency.
They have early voted for Trump.
And if Trump wins, I want THEM to suffer the consequences of their foolish poor judgment.

And I do know one thing...
What attracted them to Trump was his bigotry.
The wall. Rounding up Hispanics and shipping them off. Hating Muslims and especially when they see a woman in any store wearing one of those head scarfs, that just drives them nuts.

So, it was the Trump bigotry that drew my Trump supporting family to Donald Trump in the first place.
Naturally, they will never admit that, but I know how they are.
I've heard them rant on and on about all of those blankety blank Mexicans shopping at Walmart, or those Muslim women shopping at Target.

So if my Trump family is willing to bet the farm and lose everything, and most importantly gamble their very job over advancing the bigotry, well then Donald Trump is the guy.

Just imagine if Trump were elected and all hell broke lose, Trump himself would blame Obama, or blacks, or martians.
And all those that voted and elected Trump would go right along with the denial that Donald Trump has no clue what he is doing.

The reason so many people like Trump is because he has no political past to examine and criticize. Nothing! He's shooting off at the mouth all of these grand things that he's going to do. In reality, we know that it's going to be a disaster. It's a frekin train wreck in the making.

All of this reminds me of Obama when he was going for POTUS back in 2008. He was a young candidate who wanted to do grand things. We all know how that turned out. Luckily for us Obama is a decent person. He's not narcissistic like Trump. His campaign is nothing but fear mongering. Hitler did exactly the same and we had WW2.

Back to Asia and Europe. We could see larger ties between China and the European markets. Maybe America will be isolated. That would be devastating to our economy, but maybe it's something we need. We've been the top dog for a long time now. Being at the top doesn't last forever.

 

[MongGrel]

Basically Great Depression 2.0.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act
If you look at how much stocks drop vs odds of Trump winning increasing, the market is pricing a 15% hit from Trump presidency before he even does anything, just from the "suspense" from turning the US government into a freak reality show. Who wants to invest in a country that elects people like Trump? It's like investing in a Trump casino.

Wall Street has already been vacillating over fears of Trump.

Trump relies on money from foreign investors and trade deals to prop up his business's, and dodges taxes.

Why anyone thinks he is suddenly going to become an Isonalationalist and magically build walls and bring manufacturing jobs while continuing to operate the way he has in the past back is beyond me.

 

[MongGrel]

All of this reminds me of Obama when he was going for POTUS back in 2008. He was a young candidate who wanted to do grand things. We all know how that turned out. Luckily for us Obama is a decent person. He's not narcissistic like Trump. His campaign is nothing but fear mongering. Hitler did exactly the same and we had WW2.

I still think of Obama as a young guy myself, but I guess we are the same age

I'm surprised he has accomplished as much as he has with the current obstructionist Congress.

 

[Balt]

If you think our pivot to Asia looks bad now, just wait until we start slapping huge tariffs on all of their goods. China's influence in the region is just going to get even stronger.

 

[Jaskalas]

How it could play out:
If it looks like the President is tanking the economy, such a mortal threat to America would necessitate impeachment.

 

[turtile]

We all know Trump won't do what he says if he does get elected. A tariff that high would destroy the US economy for good. There's no way we could instantly produce everything here so people would be flipping out at paying 35%+ for phones, household chemicals etc. And who would buy our expensive products?

 

[sdifox]

Wait what do you mean my iphone is now 35% more expensive? Boys grab your guns we are going to Whitehouse.

 

[alcoholbob]

Well tariffs were replaced by the income tax. So if we simply take this in reverse, a decrease in the income tax (and say an increase in EITC) should cover the cost increase of imports, and then people can keep buying them imports. Plus higher prices means more American companies will jump in the fray to produce competing products.

Also I don't think you need a 45% tariff. Just a 15% tariff would be enough to get serious semiconductor manufacturing started again in the U.S.

 

[Bitek]

If Trump were to somehow win, I would hope the Ds would force a "Keep Trump to his promises" bill and push them to pass it.

Everything. The Wall™, the tax cuts (all of them), the tariffs, the trade agreement cancellations. Repeal minimum wages.

Fuck it. Even the Obamacare repeal. Let those idiots lose their healthcare, be burdened with pre-existing exclusions and medical bankruptcies. Pray Trump's magic pixie dust saves your dumbass.


I'm tired of trying to be the voice of reason, science and facts.

The country didn't learn it's lesson from Bush, so apparently the lesson needs to be more painful. Rs get to say all this stupid shit because they never actually deliver on it. Just sloganeering for the meatheads.

Let's let dumb baby burn it's hand on the stove and maybe it will listen next time.

Blow up the deficit. Completely fuck up the economy. Crash the stock market. Apparently we've forgotten Bush doing it, we're sick of peace and prosperity and want "change."


What you don't get though it's the SCOTUS appointment. You stole that. It was Obama's, and you don't get to have it. Ever.

So we sit on that and pass all the voodoo econ bullshit and let it play out once and for all (again) and wait it out for the next D to come in and clean it all up (again.)

 

[Darwin333]

How it could play out:
If it looks like the President is tanking the economy, such a mortal threat to America would necessitate impeachment.

Well since the economy has, not looked like, seriously tanked quite a few times before and not a single president has been impeached for it I am not going to bank on that happening.

 

[lopri]

WSJ of course has certain groups' interests in mind. Trade imbalance exists, and there is no president who does not try to get the best deal for his/her country. That is why a smart trade policy matters and that is why Trump is not qualified because he has proven that he is not a shrewd businessman or a politician (but an entertainer). It is a different argument although the bottom line is the same with WSJ's.