Because of the mandate, insurers are going to be seeing a huge influx of funds from low-risk customers with which to offset the costs of insuring higher-risk customers. That's the whole point of the mandate - to reverse the death-spiral trend of ever-increasing premiums as the young and healthy bail out of the market. The CBO's own analysis of Obamacare's predicted effect on premiums was as follows:
In other words, the CBO estimated that group-insurance premiums (which is what the OP is referring to) should DECREASE under Obamacare. I haven't seen any other impartial analysis the contradicts the CBO's. So I'm inclined to think that any significant increases in premiums (or reductions in coverage) being seen now have very little to do with Obamacare and an awful lot to do with companies reacting to the still-horrible state of the health-insurance status-quo in the United States.
Well, working as a regulator I would have to delve into the CBO's analysis more to get a solid frame of reference, but from a quick-glance analysis I would say there are some potential deficiencies in their thinking:
1) While the mandate will "bring back" a quantity of young, healthy insureds to subsidize the older insureds it will also "bring back" a quantity of otherwise uninsurable people with known, and often exorbitantly large, medical costs. It could take 10, 20, 50, or 100 healthy insureds to offset the costs associated with just one insured who was previously uninsurable. If the statistical projections are wrong (I don't know if they are) increased costs from the mandate could outstrip increased risk pooling.
2) Compounding #1 is the fact that insurers will be legally prohibited from charging a price commensurate with risk for those with existing conditions (since technically the price = cost of treatment as the probability of the condition existing in that person is 100%). I don't remember what the cap is, let's just say it's 400%. That means that Healthy Person A on Plan Z would pay $200 per month and Unhealthy Person B on Plan Z would pay no more than $800 per month (not including federal subsidies). There are definitely scenarios in which those prices might not be sustainable, so the premium for Plan Z would be set to $300 for Person A and $1200 for Person B. In other words, capping the disparity between healthy and unhealthy premiums has the deleterious effect of
dragging healthy premiums up.
3) Compounding #1 and 2, the federal government will be subsidizing the cost of Plan Z for Person B. Where does that subsidy come from? From the insurers. Through 2019, the health insurance industry will pay ~$100 billion dollars in
new money taxes. Those taxes will get passed right along to their captive buyers, the American people.
4) I don't know what sort of "efficiencies" they expect to see reflected in premiums resulting from the exchanges, but all of the companies I've talked to so far have said they're looking to file increased rates to recoup the costs associated with all the additional exchange requirements.
5) The CBO's last contention, that premiums will go down for large group markets, is specious analysis. The drop is due to decreased coverages available. The decreased coverages are because the federal gov't is planning on taxing certain benefits until the industry's collective butt bleeds. What they've basically done with that is say "Insurance costs are too high, so we're going to tax the shit out of certain benefits until they're no longer offered. When they cease to be offered, premiums will go down and we'll take credit for lowering premiums". What's not said is that you're paying less and getting less, which is not the same thing as paying less for the same coverage.