Well the DOWs off again

[Hayabusa Rider]

It's not scientific. It's a guessing game. So what isn't right now with the economy?

Play along!

 

[Anubis]

negative numbers!

 

[Blayze]

I hope I'm wrong. I picked 4,500. Not sure it will go that low, but I think we will see 5,000 or slightly lower as the bottom.

 

[mb]

bout tree fiddy

 

[jjzelinski]

I predict 8000ish

 

[techs]

6-8 months ago I predicted the low as either 6 or 7 thousand.

I based my guess on the 10,013 it was when Bush took office. I then assumed that the last 8 years the US economy was completely dependent on the huge deficits it was running. I added in the incredible amount of our manufacturing and other services that left the country over the last 8 years. I figured we actually lost about a third of our economic base.

When you get past the economic tricks the government pulled by borrowing and the short term profit increases of companies that lowered costs by outsourcing (and the inveitible negative long term consequences of that to the US). It turns out my guess of about a third decrease in the the Dow was right on the money.

Imagine where it would be if we had not bailed out large US corps and banks to the tune of a trillion and a half dollars (with more to come).

 

[CptCrunch]

I'm going with 5500, why you ask? Cause I wish it was 55 degrees outside, and its not OVER 9000!

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: CptCrunch
I'm going with 5500, why you ask? Cause I wish it was 55 degrees outside, and its not OVER 9000!

It's a good enough reason.

Since the bailout is still going on, and the economic indicators won't improve much for a while no matter what anyone does, I'm thinking late summer for the bottom and between 4 and 4.5K

 

[jediphx]

You forgot to add the choice of "When Obama leaves office finally" Thats my bet

 

[ponyo]

I don't know about the ultimate bottom, but I'm going all in for a trade when and if S&P 500 hits the ~600 level. Where the DOW is when that happens I don't know. I'm much more interested in the S&P500 than the DOW.

 

[jjzelinski]

Originally posted by: jediphx
You forgot to add the choice of "When Obama leaves office finally" Thats my bet

You know what I think you're spot on; this is all Obama's fault.

You're a dumb shit.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: jjzelinski

Originally posted by: jediphx
You forgot to add the choice of "When Obama leaves office finally" Thats my bet

You know what I think you're spot on; this is all Obama's fault.

You're a dumb shit.

:laugh:

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: jjzelinski

Originally posted by: jediphx
You forgot to add the choice of "When Obama leaves office finally" Thats my bet

You know what I think you're spot on; this is all Obama's fault.

You're a dumb shit.

:laugh:

Note my purposeful omission of "when" in the poll

 

[Pliablemoose]

We're not even close to a bottom, those credit default swaps, Alt A's, commercial real estate, etc are gonna kick our asses

I see another 3 years of pain...

 

[nace186]

The bottom is always zero.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
We're not even close to a bottom, those credit default swaps, Alt A's, commercial real estate, etc are gonna kick our asses

I see another 3 years of pain...

Sell short and often.

 

[JohnCU]

i voted 5500, i feel bad for the people trying to retire

 

[adairusmc]

Originally posted by: mb
bout tree fiddy

God damn loch ness monster.

 

[SunnyD]

42

 

[SacrosanctFiend]

5900(±100 )

 

[Squisher]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
We're not even close to a bottom, those credit default swaps, Alt A's, commercial real estate, etc are gonna kick our asses

I see another 3 years of pain...

I see a lot of hiding of bad debt starting to show up.

5000, especially if GM or even maybe Chrysler has to liquidate.

 

[Mark R]

Don't forget pension liabilities. There are a huge amount of "defined benefit" pensions (i.e. fixed-payment pensions) where the pension fund has been invested in stocks.

If the S&P hits 500 - then the pension shortfalls alone will make 10% of companies insolvent (unless the law can be changed to allow them to default on their pension contracts). From then on, it's a downward spiral. The spiral will only stop at S&P = 200, at which point 20% of the S&P companies will have gone bust.

 

[Rudee]

Compare the list of the Fortune 500 companies in 2007 to today's rankings and you will just how significant of a mess the situation is. You will find some are not even on the list at all today.

 

[TallBill]

Originally posted by: JohnCU
i voted 5500, i feel bad for the people trying to retire

I don't, they shouldn't be that deeply invested in the stock market. Greed will bite you in the ass.

 

[DeadByDawn]

Originally posted by: Mark R
Don't forget pension liabilities. There are a huge amount of "defined benefit" pensions (i.e. fixed-payment pensions) where the pension fund has been invested in stocks.

If the S&P hits 500 - then the pension shortfalls alone will make 10% of companies insolvent (unless the law can be changed to allow them to default on their pension contracts). From then on, it's a downward spiral. The spiral will only stop at S&P = 200, at which point 20% of the S&P companies will have gone bust.

My company just suspended our pension, not putting anymore into it. They said it had sustained losses. What I don't get is that they only pay 2% per year interest on it. A freaking CD at a bank pays that, I'm curios what they are actually invested in.