We could see Russia default soon

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GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
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Remember when Russia defaulted back in 1998? Remember what kind of shock that sent in the financial sector.


From AFP newswire just now, no link.

Russia denies reported debt rescheduling
by Stuart Williams
ATTENTION - ADDS quotes from official ///

MOSCOW, Feb 10, 2009 (AFP) - Russia on Tuesday denied it was
seeking a rescheduling of 400 billion dollars in corporate debt from
foreign banks after a press report unleashed a new flurry of concern
about its economy.
The head of the Association of Russian Banks, Anatoly Aksakov,
was quoted in Japan's Nikkei daily as saying Russian banks and firms
had asked the government to allow a restructuring of 400 billion
dollars (308 billion euros) in debt.
The report, which raised fears of Russian default, sent shivers
through financial markets and weighed on the value of the euro as
European banks are the institutions most exposed to Russian
corporate debt.
"The information published in Nikkei is not correct. The
statement that Russia is negotiating a restructuring of corporate
debt does not correspond to reality," said Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov, according to the RIA Novosti news
agency.
Aksakov also said that he had been misquoted by the Japanese
financial daily.
"Individual borrowers can have negotiations about restructuring
debts on their own but I know nothing about a large-scale,
centralised initiative," Russian news agencies quoted him as
saying.
But he confirmed that he had written a letter to Deputy Prime
Minister Igor Shuvalov, the government's pointman on the economy,
asking the government to act as mediator with foreign banks on the
issue of corporate debts.
"If a Russian company needs a restructuring of its external
debts due in 2009... the Russian government must be the moderator of
that process along with Russian and foreign creditors," Aksakov
said.
"There can be no talk of a default," he added.
"The majority of Russian companies and banks have built up
considerable currency reserves which allow them to fufill their debt
obligtions even ahead of time."
While Peskov and other officials including President Dmitry
Medvedev's top economic advisor Arkady Dvorkovich issued denials to
defuse the situation, the confusion highlighted concerns about the
Russian economy.
The country has been hard hit by the financial crisis and the
government said last week it would inject 40 billion dollars (31
billion euros) in new capital in Russian banks to help them through
the crisis.
Renaissance Capital analysts said in a research note titled
"Much ado about nothing" that 128 billion dollars of debt -- not 400
billion dollars -- are due to be repaid by Russian banks and firms
in 2009.
"It looks like one of those 'lost in translation' stories that
is already being backtracked on," added UralSib chief strategist
Chris Weafer.
The report had weighed heavily on the euro as European banks are
considered by analysts to be heavily exposed to Russia, dealers
said.
In late morning trade, the European single currency fell to
1.2924 dollars from 1.3002 dollars in New York late on Monday.
In 1998 Russia was brought to the brink of economic meltdown
when the government defaulted on its sovereign debt.
Russia's leaders have vowed that while the current economic
crisis will be tough there will be no repeat of the catastrophic
situation of 1998.

Bonus article:
http://www.reuters.com/article...ws/idUST35061020090210

If this happens in the next few weeks / we may officially enter a depression before 2009 year is out, a 10% contraction. Oh, and Asia, the principal debtor to Russia (good thing Putin hates us and limited his purchasing of T bills) is going to experience events like nothing before.

 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,095
513
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Hold on, didnt some Russian professor claim the United States was going to fail and Russia would lead the world recovery?
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
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Originally posted by: JS80
lol last year i predicted russia would default.

Remember when LTCM went down? I can only imagine how much 'couter party risk' is out there today. Down 6000 here we come?
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
lol last year i predicted russia would default.

Remember when LTCM went down? I can only imagine how much 'couter party risk' is out there today. Down 6000 here we come?

Yea, I'm waiting for S&P 500 to be at 450.
 

gevorg

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2004
5,075
1
0
Do you guys actually read the article? It was lost in translation by Nikkei.

Also, $400bln would not make Russia default, they have more than that in their reserves and won't have to go international to get loans. Of course, if Russian gov't would choose not to finance/bailout some Russian corp it would go bankrupt.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Remember when Russia defaulted back in 1998? Remember what kind of shock that sent in the financial sector.
Nope, my biggest concern back then was probably what CPU to overclock next. Now things hit closer to home.
Yea, I'm waiting for S&P 500 to be at 450.
Sweet, I can't wait. Cramer on mad money said last week's Friday rally probably had teeth, though, so he's calling you a liar!
Do you guys actually read the article?
Not me, formatting FTL.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
lol last year i predicted russia would default.

Remember when LTCM went down? I can only imagine how much 'couter party risk' is out there today. Down 6000 here we come?

Yea, I'm waiting for S&P 500 to be at 450.

SDS FTW? Its crazy, I never imagine having my retirement investments etc. in CASH. My advice, unless you are actively trading and know what you are doing, sit out 2009, come back in 2010.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
lol last year i predicted russia would default.

Remember when LTCM went down? I can only imagine how much 'couter party risk' is out there today. Down 6000 here we come?

Yea, I'm waiting for S&P 500 to be at 450.

SDS FTW? Its crazy, I never imagine having my retirement investments etc. in CASH. My advice, unless you are actively trading and know what you are doing, sit out 2009, come back in 2010.

FAZ FTW. No really, I hate being short in this environment. Can't really risk my capital right now. I would have totally though back in my heyday...

Besides, govt can pull a rabbit trick and screw your short at any time.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Yea, I'm waiting for S&P 500 to be at 450.
Sweet, I can't wait. Cramer on mad money said last week's Friday rally probably had teeth, though, so he's calling you a liar!

:confused: what are you rambling about? It's just my prediction, just like he has his.
 

GTKeeper

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2005
1,118
0
0
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
lol last year i predicted russia would default.

Remember when LTCM went down? I can only imagine how much 'couter party risk' is out there today. Down 6000 here we come?

Yea, I'm waiting for S&P 500 to be at 450.

SDS FTW? Its crazy, I never imagine having my retirement investments etc. in CASH. My advice, unless you are actively trading and know what you are doing, sit out 2009, come back in 2010.

FAZ FTW. No really, I hate being short in this environment. Can't really risk my capital right now. I would have totally though back in my heyday...

Besides, govt can pull a rabbit trick and screw your short at any time.

True, wait for the bailout to pass, watch the sucker rally, load up on FAZ or SDS (it really won't matter) watch the implosion Q2-Q4 of this year.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Russia has a lot of gas/oil, I'm not yet worried about them.

Otherwise, we run a big trade imbalance with Russia, they don't buy from us. I'm not seeing a big problem for us (their purchases from other countries may go down, their exportds to us might become cheaper).

Did you guys notice this?

Renaissance Capital analysts said in a research note titled
"Much ado about nothing"
that 128 billion dollars of debt -- not 400
billion dollars
-- are due to be repaid by Russian banks and firms
in 2009.

"It looks like one of those 'lost in translation' stories that
is already being backtracked on,"
added UralSib chief strategist
Chris Weafer.

Otherwise, this is a story about potential problems for European banks, I'm not entirely convinced that I'm sympathetic to US banks' problems. So, I've got no sympathy for Euro banks ATM.

Fern
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Originally posted by: JS80
lol last year i predicted russia would default.

Remember when LTCM went down? I can only imagine how much 'couter party risk' is out there today. Down 6000 here we come?

Yea, I'm waiting for S&P 500 to be at 450.

SDS FTW? Its crazy, I never imagine having my retirement investments etc. in CASH. My advice, unless you are actively trading and know what you are doing, sit out 2009, come back in 2010.

FAZ FTW. No really, I hate being short in this environment. Can't really risk my capital right now. I would have totally though back in my heyday...

Besides, govt can pull a rabbit trick and screw your short at any time.

True, wait for the bailout to pass, watch the sucker rally, load up on FAZ or SDS (it really won't matter) watch the implosion Q2-Q4 of this year.

I was actually predicting a suckers rally to 9500+ after the bailout, but I no longer hold that view after the retard Geithner unveiled his plan.
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
WTF??? The Russians are overflowing with energy and mineral resources, and not in debt.

AND have lowest tax rates in the world!

This forum attracts some serious retards.

Cramer!!! LOL yeah keep listening to him if you want to remain broke since the man's advice returns negatives every year/
 
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