[wccftech] Rumor: Lisa Su Considers A Role Beyond AMD And Prepares A Successor

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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Wasn't there like a 40% IPC gap with Intel when Bulldozer was AMD's top dog? Intel has stated that Sunny Cove's IPC gain is ~18% over Coffee Lake but when you add in the frequency degradation moving to 10nm, there is likely to be a rather small overall improvement in ST performance.

So how are you thinking the tables will turn so drastically in 1.5yrs?

These are things that need to be revised to reflect the reality of what we now know--those IPC gains are false and exist only at designed security compromises. If Intel chips during the AMD bulldozer era weren't designed at the intentional cost of massive security exploitations, the real difference is what, 15-20%?

as to the bolded: the answer is "no"
 
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Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
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I think 2020 next year is a good time for her to jump ship,by 2021 Intel will be taking back the 10% market share gained by AMD the past 4 years and spanking them hard with 10nm+ and 7nm.

2021? Is that when AMD are going on to Zen4 on 5nm?


The change in the dynamics of the foundry market are startling. Intel is now in the position AMD was in the mid-2000s; trailing their competitor with little prospect of catching up, never mind overtaking them.

Intel don't have a Conroe in reserve any more, however when Intel step away from the monolith design, that will be the equivalent of their Nehalem when the memory controller went on-die - can they make it count to catch up?
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,027
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@Atari2600

Intel does have Willow Cove (which, if not already complete in the labs, should be near completion) and Golden Cove. For all we know, those could be amazing in simulations. They just don't have the foundry tech necessary to bring those to life. AMD has a reliable path from 7nm to 7nm+ to 5nm (at least), and an ascendant TSMC guiding them on their way.
 

Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
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@Atari2600

Intel does have Willow Cove (which, if not already complete in the labs, should be near completion) and Golden Cove. For all we know, those could be amazing in simulations. They just don't have the foundry tech necessary to bring those to life. AMD has a reliable path from 7nm to 7nm+ to 5nm (at least), and an ascendant TSMC guiding them on their way.

True, true.

I did also see a PR piece from Intel a while back about decoupling their design teams from process. Which sounds great to a Wall Street idiot, but anyone with half a notion is laughing.

At the highest level, how does a design team design a CPU if they don't have a transistor and power budget?


So, Intel's teams might be designing for 10nm (and even 7nm), with process specs that are shifting (or worse, they might actually be trying to follow some fluffy PR world of unicorns). Willow Cove might have been the best CPU we've ever seen - as designed for the 10nm Intel promised itself 5 years ago - but with the 10nm Intel are poised to actually deliver in 2020 it could be fairly mediocre in terms of yield and/or clock and/or power.


Meanwhile AMD's design teams have hard data on 7nm from Zen2, have likely taped out Zen3 on 7nm+ and have been given the spec from TSMC for 5nm with a high confidence TSMC will deliver what they have promised to deliver.
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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Intel has neither 10nm nor 7nm -SP or -S chips (or even Xeon W chips) on any roadmap for 2020 or 2021 until Sapphire Rapids, at least not in significant volume (lookin at you, Icelake-SP). Seriously, I'm not making this up. 7nm will only appear in one product in 2021, and that's Intel Xe. Intel won't have a competitive desktop/HEDT processor untill 2022. Until then it appears to be Comet Lake (14nm), Rocket Lake (14nm CPU + 10nm iGPU), and we don't exactly know what yet in 2021 on desktop. In server, it's Cooper Lake and low-volume Icelake-SP until Intel can pull together 10nm Sapphire Rapids in 2021 (at what volume, we don't know), and even that isn't going to be 7nm! AND that assumes that Sapphire Rapids actually works out as well as Intel likes. They're depending heavily on EMIB/Foveros to make that product click, as well as 10nm being mature enough at that point to provide them with the dice they need to build that . . . thing.

And you think Lisa Su is the one in danger? By 2022, AMD will be selling Zen 5.
You replied? I really thought that was a comedic post. Damn, I have to take ridiculous postings more seriously now.
 

happy medium

Lifer
Jun 8, 2003
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Intel has neither 10nm nor 7nm -SP or -S chips (or even Xeon W chips) on any roadmap for 2020 or 2021 until Sapphire Rapids, at least not in significant volume (lookin at you, Icelake-SP). Seriously, I'm not making this up. 7nm will only appear in one product in 2021, and that's Intel Xe. Intel won't have a competitive desktop/HEDT processor untill 2022. Until then it appears to be Comet Lake (14nm), Rocket Lake (14nm CPU + 10nm iGPU), and we don't exactly know what yet in 2021 on desktop. In server, it's Cooper Lake and low-volume Icelake-SP until Intel can pull together 10nm Sapphire Rapids in 2021 (at what volume, we don't know), and even that isn't going to be 7nm! AND that assumes that Sapphire Rapids actually works out as well as Intel likes. They're depending heavily on EMIB/Foveros to make that product click, as well as 10nm being mature enough at that point to provide them with the dice they need to build that . . . thing.

And you think Lisa Su is the one in danger? By 2022, AMD will be selling Zen 5.
Roadmaps change,and I think Intel will be moving to 10nm+ faster than you think.
I love what a big deal people make of a node change.
Like somehow one 7nm node is = to another 7nm node.
 

happy medium

Lifer
Jun 8, 2003
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2021? Is that when AMD are going on to Zen4 on 5nm?


The change in the dynamics of the foundry market are startling. Intel is now in the position AMD was in the mid-2000s; trailing their competitor with little prospect of catching up, never mind overtaking them.

Intel don't have a Conroe in reserve any more, however when Intel step away from the monolith design, that will be the equivalent of their Nehalem when the memory controller went on-die - can they make it count to catch up?
Intel is no where near the position AMD was. They have over 80% market share. AMD will grab another 10% and intel will still own the market. After that intel will grab that market share right back even faster than they lost it.
 

happy medium

Lifer
Jun 8, 2003
14,387
480
126
You replied? I really thought that was a comedic post. Damn, I have to take ridiculous postings more seriously now.
Comedic but somehow most of what I say comes true. It's called reality.
It funny how people on here act like Intel is in big trouble and AMD is just blowing Intel away and Intel is losing 25% market share a year.
It's all a big smoke screen.
Reality tells me in 2 years large IPC gains with Ryzen will be history ,the sleeping giant will have awaken and Lisa su and AMD will be on the roller coast ride down hill.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,136
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Roadmaps change,and I think Intel will be moving to 10nm+ faster than you think.
I love what a big deal people make of a node change.
Like somehow one 7nm node is = to another 7nm node.

...which is exactly what you are doing with 10nm and phantom 10nm+, the former of which Intel is already 4 years behind on, and has no plans to release any substantial product on it in less than 1 year from now.

You also aren't really addressing the fact that beyond pure performance and efficiency, AMD further wins here on scaling because of the chiplet design, on top of 7nm. They are effectively now winning on manufacturing process as well, and will be at a scale that Intel probably won't be able to match. These are also real products now and will be real products for the next 4 years and more, and will be in the position to match and respond against Intel whenever Intel lays another floppy fish down on the table.

Intel has yet to prove any of that. Yes, the roles are now flipped and unexpected from a few years ago. Either keep pretending that this isn't the observable truth, or just make more silly posts about phantom dreams.
 
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Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
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Comedic but somehow most of what I say comes true. It's called reality.
It funny how people on here act like Intel is in big trouble and AMD is just blowing Intel away and Intel is losing 25% market share a year.
It's all a big smoke screen.
Reality tells me in 2 years large IPC gains with Ryzen will be history ,the sleeping giant will have awaken and Lisa su and AMD will be on the roller coast ride down hill.
So even though Intel said they would try not to loose more than 20% market share, you know better ?
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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Reality tells me in 2 years large IPC gains with Ryzen will be history ,the sleeping giant will have awaken and Lisa su and AMD will be on the roller coast ride down hill.

I like this part, because large IPC gains with Intel have been history for 10 years now, and it only took AMD the last 2 to catch up and then pass them. And yeah, without serious security compromises on order with all current processes, what does Intel actually have, in terms of real product, to support your....thesis?
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
5,802
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Comedic but somehow most of what I say comes true. It's called reality.
It funny how people on here act like Intel is in big trouble and AMD is just blowing Intel away and Intel is losing 25% market share a year.
It's all a big smoke screen.
Reality tells me in 2 years large IPC gains with Ryzen will be history ,the sleeping giant will have awaken and Lisa su and AMD will be on the roller coast ride down hill.
In 2 years, AMD will have Zen 4 pushing out. What this means? Next year we are looking at Zen 3. With much larger IPC gain than Zen 2 is for Zen+.

Everybody here is suddenly believing that AMD is going to sleep for another 5 years, and that will allow Intel to catch up. Wake up guys. Its Intel who has to catch up to AMD. Regardless of what you think, and what you believe.

Intel's 10 nm process is really Intel's Bulldozer.
 
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A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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These are things that need to be revised to reflect the reality of what we now know--those IPC gains are false and exist only at designed security compromises. If Intel chips during the AMD bulldozer era weren't designed at the intentional cost of massive security exploitations, the real difference is what, 15-20%?

as to the bolded: the answer is "no"

Especially when Intel's IPC gain claim is based on spec2017 and faster RAM. Though the latter effects geek bench scores more. At least with Intel I feel they're "cheating" when they release gb scores because Intel is claiming, per a r/intel post, that increasing the ram frequency violates the warranty on the cpu because the integrated memory controller's function and frequency is being changed, which affects everything else. Or Intel is hoping to get more people to buy their oc warranty, which I don't recall being as new as people claim it to be. I remember Intel advertising somethign similar when I bought my processor 8 years ago ish.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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In 2 years, AMD will have Zen 4 pushing out. What this means? Next year we are looking at Zen 3. With much larger IPC gain than Zen 2 is for Zen+.

Everybody here is suddenly believing that AMD is going to sleep for another 5 years, and that will allow Intel to catch up. Wake up guys. Its Intel who has to catch up to AMD. Regardless of what you think, and what you believe.

Intel's 10 nm process is really Intel's Bulldozer.
I was under the idea that zen 3 was refining the 7 nm tsmc process using extreme ultraviolet at a 7 nm + node allowing reduced power usage while increasing frequencies?

@happy medium do you own a Skyline?
 
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A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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2021? Is that when AMD are going on to Zen4 on 5nm?


The change in the dynamics of the foundry market are startling. Intel is now in the position AMD was in the mid-2000s; trailing their competitor with little prospect of catching up, never mind overtaking them.

Intel don't have a Conroe in reserve any more, however when Intel step away from the monolith design, that will be the equivalent of their Nehalem when the memory controller went on-die - can they make it count to catch up?

Foveros combined with chiplets? There's some cool discussion on twitter about Intel having to manage heat translation from the bottom layers through the top and effectively removing the heat so they're not limited on future frequency since there's a heat limit on transisters and stuff within, like 130C or something.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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I was under the idea that zen 3 was refining the 7 nm tsmc process using extreme ultraviolet at a 7 nm + node allowing reduced power usage while increasing frequencies?

@happy medium do you own a Skyline?
I would not hope for higher frequencies. AMD may have a point in going for architecture releases each year, because new process nodes may "never" bring us frequency increases, again. But that remains to be seen.

Basically what you said is true, but Zen 3 is much more, than just N7 EUV. If Zen 2 already has better IPC than Skylake, Zen 3 might have higher IPC than Ice Lake, while maintaining the same clock levels as Zen 2.
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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Comedic but somehow most of what I say comes true. It's called reality.
It funny how people on here act like Intel is in big trouble and AMD is just blowing Intel away and Intel is losing 25% market share a year.
It's all a big smoke screen.
Reality tells me in 2 years large IPC gains with Ryzen will be history ,the sleeping giant will have awaken and Lisa su and AMD will be on the roller coast ride down hill.
I have to ask for actual results confirming your previous predictions. All of them, not any cherry picked ones.

Wasn't the recent history meme claiming that IPC gains were practically over?

In 2 years everything that exists now will be history. Simply a fact of life.

The computer field is littered with companies that the common thinking never saw being surpassed, or relegated to at best a scrambling competitor, or at worse fading away completely. Whether it happens this time or not is presently unknown, unless you're secretly a time traveler.

If you are, please send a PM, we have a few things to discuss.

This new AMD is working better than most large companies do. No wasteful excursions into unrealistic paths, thinking of Intel here, invest where you see the best returns, even if it means allowing certain sections to temporarily languish, GPUs here, waiting until the correct time to invest resources. What we fail to realize is that there is never resources enough to achieve all we want at once and AMD appears to be following this philosophy correctly.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,027
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I doubt it happens, but its a shame it wouldn't and didn't happen before now, where AMD could've bypassed the slow reacting OEMs and been pushing their EPYC servers with the clout of IBM support behind them.

IBM kills everything they touch. Everything.

You replied? I really thought that was a comedic post. Damn, I have to take ridiculous postings more seriously now.

Welllll he certainly took his own post seriously. Which is kinda comedic in and of itself. Eventually someone has to just deadpan respond and say, "sorry, but no".

Roadmaps change,and I think Intel will be moving to 10nm+ faster than you think.

Why? Intel is overstating their successes in every sector wherever possible. Roadmaps are only going to get worse, not better. They haven't delivered on a node successfully and on-time since 22nm. Ponder that for a moment. After Haswell Refresh/Devil's Canyon, Kabylake, Coffeelake, Whiskey Lake, Comet Lake, Cascade Lake, and Cooper Lake, it should be obvious that Intel is slinging very little but band-aids onto the market. They have done nothing to inspire confidence other than cruise on momentum.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,231
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AMD with Zen is a far different Company/situation than AMD with Athlon. Back in the Athlon days AMD was an Engineering/Manufacturer, just like Intel was and still is. A couple years after acquiring ATI, AMD transitioned itself into an Engineering Company, just like ATI had become and Nvidia is. This lack of Manufacturing concern is a substantial advantage AMD has over Intel this time around and due to Intels Manufacturing woes is contributing to Zen's success. I really suspect 2 things: 1) AMD is much more likely to not fade away like they did at the end of Athlon; 2) I don't think Intel will be in the Fab Business in 10 years. The Manufacturing part has completely failed and is holding back the Engineering part, like a Sprinter with a broken leg sitting on the bench, Intel is stuck while AMD is filling podiums;
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
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I was under the idea that zen 3 was refining the 7 nm tsmc process using extreme ultraviolet at a 7 nm + node allowing reduced power usage while increasing frequencies?
Zen 3 as well as 7nm+ are far bigger changes than Zen+ and 12nm. The refined 7nm TSMC process is actually 6nm. 7nm+ is a bigger change which will be the first major step toward full EUV on 5nm. Zen 3's changes may be smaller than Zen 2's (at least Papermaster indicated so before) but that may well be the case due to many changes planned for Zen 3 to be essentially backported to Zen 2 (the Zen core apparently was originally planned to have much fewer changes).

Increasing frequencies will be an interesting topic. As said 7nm+ is no process refinement at all, and new process nodes usually make it harder to hold the same frequencies, nevermind increase them (hello Intel 10nm).