War Games: China attacks Taiwan in 2026 and US defends- China's navy in shambles but 2 US aircraft carriers sunk

[Ajay]

Im sure we would like to but since we squandered our even high tech manufacturing base over the course of the last 40 years, other governments have rightfully acknowledged that such capabilities are critical for national security and since we ceded any advantage we ever had, they wont make the same mistake. Our shortsightedness is their gain and they wont relinquish that willingly.

Absolutely 100%. US capitalism at its finest. I stop here before I go on a two page rant 😐

 

[ivwshane]

Why would China change their current strategy when it’s appear working. They continue gaining market share and IP from US companies while maintaining the remote possibility of war against the US or US allies in hopes that we continue pouring ungodly sums of money into our war machine while criminally underfunding the needs of Americans and American infrastructure.

 

[rommelrommel]

I’m working on reading the actual report, it’s interesting.

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ

One thing that appears obvious is that the B21 can’t come into service in volume fast enough.

Also long range and preferably hard to intercept missiles are incredibly valuable but you need a LOT of them to have effectiveness against a near peer.

 

[Zorba]

One of the items that really POed me in the Chips act was the lack of money dedicated to packaging and additional elements of the chip manufacturing supply chain. We really need to improve our on shore assets in this critical aspect of our industrial base.

Won't some of that just naturally follow the chip manufacturing?

 

[Ajay]

Won't some of that just naturally follow the chip manufacturing?

To some extent. Other countries want to retain their economically strategic assets as much as possible. Building out that sort of infrastructure isn’t easy and requires talent, $$$$s and cross licensing. Still, we could have put money into getting the process off the ground. We could have put provisions in the bill requiring some commitment from Intel, et al, to give preference to US based suppliers in order to open up the door to private investment.

 

[JTsyo]

Does the US really need to risk it's carriers near China? Aren't the bases in Japan enough to support operations?
I don't see China invading Taiwan unless things get dicey at home and they need something to rally national pride. Invading Taiwan would be costly and most likely to fail if the US is involved. If the US ends up with leadership that pulls back on commitments in the Pacific, that my entice China to act while they have a window.

 

[rommelrommel]

Does the US really need to risk it's carriers near China? Aren't the bases in Japan enough to support operations?
I don't see China invading Taiwan unless things get dicey at home and they need something to rally national pride. Invading Taiwan would be costly and most likely to fail if the US is involved. If the US ends up with leadership that pulls back on commitments in the Pacific, that my entice China to act while they have a window.

In the report they identify a problem with this... deploying carrier groups forward is a mainstay of US deterrence. Not doing so could be interpreted as a lack of US interest/resolve. But, if the fighting breaks out those carriers are dead. They have a quote,
Thomas Schelling, the great strategist, observed, “A fine deterrent can make a superb target.”

It would be ideal to have the carriers much further back and use them more cautiously, but how the war starts has a lot of impact on where the carriers probably are.

 

[kage69]

I'd like to see carriers farther back too, and surface combatants allowed to use towed arrays during Innocent Passage runs through territorial seas. China has shown again and again they don't believe in Innocent Passage anyway, so let our guys have an extra layer of protection and warning from here on out. Beijing can eat a bag, protest all they want.

Taiwan has some competent weapons of their own, just not enough of them probably. We should be selling/gifting them GLSDB and LRASM now. I read somewhere Taiwan has about 10 days worth of fuel in the event of being cut off. Maybe some mini reactors might be in order?

I'm glad we have a strong ally like Japan involved, one who has doubled down on both it's commitment to be a US partner and it's desire to defend Taiwan. They've got two new Taigei class subs almost done and another three in the beginning phase, which when done will equal 27 (mixed class) attack subs. Surface fleet also no joke, and expanding.

 

[sdifox]

There is no reason for the carriers to be in the Taiwan straight. Stay on the far aide, Taiwan is only 90mi wide at the widest point. That's a few min of flight. The strait is 100mi wide at the narrowest point.

 

[JEDI]

I'd like to see carriers farther back too, and surface combatants allowed to use towed arrays during Innocent Passage runs through territorial seas. China has shown again and again they don't believe in Innocent Passage anyway, so let our guys have an extra layer of protection and warning from here on out. Beijing can eat a bag, protest all they want.

Towed arrays:

Towed Array Sonar: Uses and Design Challenges | AMETEK SCP

The towed array technology have come a long way in terms of design and application. Continue reading about this technology, Sonar uses and design challenges

www.ametekscp.com

.

and why isnt the US using them during these runs?

 

[WelshBloke]

why would china be against US ships having this during their runs through China 'claimed' seas?

Because its an easy way to spy and locate Chinese subs? I mean why would China not be against this?

 

[JEDI]

Because its an easy way to spy and locate Chinese subs? I mean why would China not be against this?

yeah, i understand now.
edited my post

 

[kage69]

Towed arrays:

Towed Array Sonar: Uses and Design Challenges | AMETEK SCP

The towed array technology have come a long way in terms of design and application. Continue reading about this technology, Sonar uses and design challenges

www.ametekscp.com

.

and why isnt the US using them during these runs?

Innocent passage standards. Like a sub having to do it on the surface, or a carrier having to do it with all of it's aircraft aboard. Used of towed array is seen as information collecting, and when done by a military vessel, well... Not a standard I care much about these days though. Chinese vessels have been ramming, harrassing and intimidating others for years in the SCS, not to mention using a "civilian" militia fleet to fulfill military and diplomatic agendas. It's time tactics and ROE adapt to meet the changing times.

 

[rommelrommel]

I'd like to see carriers farther back too, and surface combatants allowed to use towed arrays during Innocent Passage runs through territorial seas. China has shown again and again they don't believe in Innocent Passage anyway, so let our guys have an extra layer of protection and warning from here on out. Beijing can eat a bag, protest all they want.

Taiwan has some competent weapons of their own, just not enough of them probably. We should be selling/gifting them GLSDB and LRASM now. I read somewhere Taiwan has about 10 days worth of fuel in the event of being cut off. Maybe some mini reactors might be in order?

I'm glad we have a strong ally like Japan involved, one who has doubled down on both it's commitment to be a US partner and it's desire to defend Taiwan. They've got two new Taigei class subs almost done and another three in the beginning phase, which when done will equal 27 (mixed class) attack subs. Surface fleet also no joke, and expanding.

No point in LRASM, they would struggle to get enough sorties up.

Harpoon and similar is a big part of what they need. Stuff like HIMARS could be survivable, but really the easiest place to hit is on the water. Sink one landing craft and everything on it is gone, and it can’t bring anything else ever again.

Less money into fighters and major surface combatants, lots of money into coastal defence and making sure whatever gets ashore is hammered. MANPAD, ATGM, mobile artillery, mortars, deep ammo stocks, mines, etc.

What exactly is prepositioned at the possible landing spots is very unclear, but rumoured to be substantial. I think the report significantly underestimated Taiwanese ability to resist and overestimated PRC capabilities when it comes to the battle on the beaches. Either way, more can’t hurt. Ideally Taiwan would have so much short range defence that the PRC would have to engage in a long and awful bombardment of Taiwan to even consider attacking. They want to do it on the cheap, not at the expense of their entire navy, much of their air force, best troops, and a majority of their missiles.

 

[JEDI]

No point in LRASM, they would struggle to get enough sorties up.

Harpoon and similar is a big part of what they need. Stuff like HIMARS could be survivable, but really the easiest place to hit is on the water. Sink one landing craft and everything on it is gone, and it can’t bring anything else ever again.

Lrasm: 3x range of harpoon (so 200miles), twice the cost but has stealth capabilities, and fired from a plane. plane can carry 2

harpoon asm: fired from anywhere (ie: ship or beach), cheaper, and more importantly, smaller so you can have more if space limited (ie: ship)

 

[Pens1566]

If I'm PACFLT, no way am I ever putting my carrier groups (or any surface ships really) between mainland and Taiwan. Not even as a show during "peacetime". They can sit at the edges of their effective range project force like they're supposed to.

 

[K1052]

Harpoon and similar is a big part of what they need. Stuff like HIMARS could be survivable, but really the easiest place to hit is on the water. Sink one landing craft and everything on it is gone, and it can’t bring anything else ever again.

This is why the administration pushed Taiwan to buy HCDS, of which they ordered 100 trucks and 400 missiles for them.

 

[kage69]

No point in LRASM, they would struggle to get enough sorties up.

That's it, going to bed at a decent time tonight. For whatever reason, I somehow switched NSM and LRASM in my head yesterday, was thinking of the swanky NSM truck launcher Marines have. Doh. Nevermind. LRASM and Rapid Dragon will be used to great effect by the US Navy and USAF should the Chinese start their war. Of that I am confidant.

I also see Taiwan's Hsiung Feng IIE making the Chinese quite upset. I hope they have several hundred to go along with those Harpoons we're selling them.

 

[rommelrommel]

Lrasm: 3x range of harpoon (so 200miles), twice the cost but has stealth capabilities, and fired from a plane. plane can carry 2

harpoon asm: fired from anywhere (ie: ship or beach), cheaper, and more importantly, smaller so you can have more if space limited (ie: ship)

Exactly, harpoon range is good enough to contest the whole strait in the north and most of it in the south, plus no requirement to get 20+ planes in the air at the same time to fire a meaningful volley.

I’d like to see them have more like 4000 ASM’s with adequate launchers.

It’s hard to know how many indigenous ASM they have, but they’re trying to build their stockpiles up.

Missile production to more than double with completion of new facilities - Focus Taiwan

Taipei, Aug. 14 (CNA) The National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology has completed several new facilities that are expected to more than double Taiwan's annual missile output to 500, according to a recent Ministry of National Defense (MND) report.

focustaiwan.tw

 

[rommelrommel]

If I'm PACFLT, no way am I ever putting my carrier groups (or any surface ships really) between mainland and Taiwan. Not even as a show during "peacetime". They can sit at the edges of their effective range project force like they're supposed to.

I would bet that they didn’t start between, just too close. Ideally I would guess you’d be far enough out that any Chinese attempt to deliver air launched ASM would be vulnerable to air intercept without the Chinese planes having any ground/naval SAM support. That would also outrange most of the ground launched ASM, leaving far less work for the carrier air defence to do.

I’ve watched some gaming out of the attempts to interdict the bombers that would be carrying the really big ASM salvos and it’s really hard to penetrate the fighter screen and get the bombers before they launch.

 

[Pens1566]

I would bet that they didn’t start between, just too close. Ideally I would guess you’d be far enough out that any Chinese attempt to deliver air launched ASM would be vulnerable to air intercept without the Chinese planes having any ground/naval SAM support. That would also outrange most of the ground launched ASM, leaving far less work for the carrier air defence to do.

I’ve watched some gaming out of the attempts to interdict the bombers that would be carrying the really big ASM salvos and it’s really hard to penetrate the fighter screen and get the bombers before they launch.

I don't trust estimates on effective range of the chinese weapons either. I think they're exaggerated and the models/sims are using the "worst case" (as in longer than they actually work) as well.

 

[Leeea]

I’ve watched some gaming out of the attempts to interdict the bombers that would be carrying the really big ASM salvos and it’s really hard to penetrate the fighter screen and get the bombers before they launch.

The ocean is a big place and need to know where to send all those bombers to.

Otherwise it is meaningless.

 

[hal2kilo]

Does the US really need to risk it's carriers near China? Aren't the bases in Japan enough to support operations?
I don't see China invading Taiwan unless things get dicey at home and they need something to rally national pride. Invading Taiwan would be costly and most likely to fail if the US is involved. If the US ends up with leadership that pulls back on commitments in the Pacific, that my entice China to act while they have a window.

You can bet that China is following the civilized west commitments to supporting Ukraine. That's another reason for not pulling the plug. You want some of this?

 

[Leeea]

You can bet that China is following the civilized west commitments to supporting Ukraine. That's another reason for not pulling the plug. You want some of this?

I believe China is in absolute shock over what is happening in Ukraine on every level.

The ability of Ukraine to resist, the sanctions package imposed on Russia, and the decision to prop up Ukraine's finances and military from the outside.


I believe Taiwan is also in shock. They suddenly realize they will have to fight in order to receive western support. They need to demonstrate they want freedom and then the train piles in.

 

[Mai72]

I think that China is playing the loooong game. They know that they would lose to America, and our allies.

But, if they can wait. Maybe 20 years? Maybe when we harm ourselves because we won't have the men neceessary to fight a war. Especially when obestity among our youth in the West is just horrible. There have been multiple studies that were conducted by the US military just recently on the obesity epidemic, and how this is going to diminsh our military. Then again, maybe wars in the near future will be fought by robots.

How does obesity threaten the US military’s mission readiness?

Obesity has a grave impact on the US military’s mission readiness, limiting the number of available recruits

www.openaccessgovernment.org