War Games: China attacks Taiwan in 2026 and US defends- China's navy in shambles but 2 US aircraft carriers sunk

[Zorba]

one child policy was supposed to increase gdp per capita.
and it did till that workforce is now reaching retirement age. (avg age is 50s)

surprised the leadership in the 1970s when one-child started to be enforced did not have a plan for when that workforce retires and the one child generation cannot support the old retirees who need govt assistance. (medical, nursing homes)

think upside down triangle with one child generation workers on the bottom trying to support all the old on top

Why do you think they invented COVID?






/S (I promise this was a joke, calm down)

 

[Mai72]

The future is now; it was just reported that chinas population officially declined last uear for the first time since like the 60s? One-child policy and no doubt under-reported covid impact will devastate their demographics (and likely economy) for years to come. Wonder if it will increase the worker's share of income/wealth.

On the plus side, there will be less competition in the work force?

Also, less people striving for resources.

 

[igor_kavinski]

On the plus side, there will be less competition in the work force?

Also, less people striving for resources.

Less suicides.

 

[uclaLabrat]

On the plus side, there will be less competition in the work force?

Also, less people striving for resources.

That's what i anticipate; a labor shortage will drastically increase the value of labor much akin to post-WWII US, and hopefully that leads to increased share of wealth for workers.

That said the elites will still control substantial resources and the levers of power, as well as being resentful of having to share their gains from the last 40 years.

That sort of power struggle is ripe for disruption in entrenched power structures. Be interesting to watch (and hopefully not exciting).

 

[Leeea]

Might not even be Taiwan, how many western countries are going to come to Russia's aid if China calls their nuclear bluff and invades?

Gets the popcorn out.

What would “game over” mean for China?

The USA could get their navy and probably a lot of their air force, they could run a blockade indefinitely, but the mainland is really uninvadeable unless the country collapses internally.

China is an energy importer. LNG, oil, coal.

Spoiler: on the subject of coal

China claims to have vast reserves of coal, but people who poke around the mines say all the good easy coal is gone.

Quantity over quality - China faces power supply risk despite coal output surge

The world's top coal consumer relies on coal for 60% of its electricity.

www.reuters.com

When China banned Australian coal it dropped the ban a mere two years later. It found it was unable to replace the Australian supply with a combination of domestic production and imports from Russia, Indonesia, and Mongolia.

A large portion of China's remaining coal stock is a mix of coal and other stuff. Difficult to burn, nasty to burn, nasty emissions, and high maintenance on the power plants.

The entirety of China's steel production is dependent on imported coal due to the high quality of coal needed for coking.

China has already ordered a complete ban on fertilizer and phosphate exports. It simply does not have enough. If it was unable to import fertilizer it would be looking at food shortages in about six months or so.


In short, blocking the Chinese ports is enough.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

What would “game over” mean for China?

The USA could get their navy and probably a lot of their air force, they could run a blockade indefinitely, but the mainland is really uninvadeable unless the country collapses internally.

- Cripple China militarily, economically, and politically to a point where China is essentially forced to negotiate a peace (and perhaps even deep structural reforms to their system) under the gun.

 

[Mai72]

What would “game over” mean for China?

The USA could get their navy and probably a lot of their air force, they could run a blockade indefinitely, but the mainland is really uninvadeable unless the country collapses internally.

We have our issues in America as well. Its predicted that in 10 years, 50% of Americans will be obese. IMO, this could take us down a very tragic path, and could eventually harm America's health.

This article was written 2-3 years ago. The clock is ticking...

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/18/health/american-obesity-trends-wellness/index.html

 

[Pens1566]

- Cripple China militarily, economically, and politically to a point where China is essentially forced to negotiate a peace (and perhaps even deep structural reforms to their system) under the gun.

Have to be careful with that. How did it work out when we tried it with Japan?

 

[uclaLabrat]

Have to be careful with that. How did it work out when we tried it with Japan?

Pretty fucking well but it took a war to execute. Our submarine blockade of the islands in WWII devastated their war machine.

I know we threatened embargoes from dutch east indies and that largely precipitated pearl harbor but i dont recall how extensive those embargoes were prior to attack, if they were even implemented. Our force projection in 1940 vs 1944 was light years apart.

 

[Pens1566]

Pretty fucking well but it took a war to execute. Our submarine blockade of the islands in WWII devastated their war machine.

I know we threatened embargoes from dutch east indies and that largely precipitated pearl harbor but i dont recall how extensive those embargoes were prior to attack, if they were even implemented. Our force projection in 1940 vs 1944 was light years apart.

Yeah, was referring to the whole WAR part ...

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Yeah, was referring to the whole WAR part ...

- This whole thread is based on the presumption of what would happen if we're already at war with China.

They attack Taiwan, we defend, they sink even one of our ships and the gloves come off.

 

[Pens1566]

- This whole thread is based on the presumption of what would happen if we're already at war with China.

They attack Taiwan, we defend, they sink even one of our ships and the gloves come off.

Right. My point was, things like that can make a precarious situation even more dangerous. Now, Japan didn't have nukes at the time, but China does. A mild shooting war with a nuclear power is one thing, but forcing them almost into the stone age doesn't necessarily push them to the settlement table. It could push them to the other place. And, given the nature of who we're talking about, I think that's the more likely outcome. Hence my statement.