This is my best understanding of the situation. If you don't like it or are looking for concrete absolute confirmation, its not here, as no one I talked or messaged with can publicly confirm anything, and Wal-Mart probably won't say anything until these things are in stores. Some things are in progress and will have adjustments as time goes on.
This is based on information from several trusted sources. The mods have information on some of them. No one will go on the record, but the information is consistent from many sources.
If you think I am full of it, this won't change your mind. If you generally trust me as providing the best information I can to AVS, then realize I'm putting some credibility on the line here. Its possible I am being feed innacurate information, but unlikely as several unrelated people all basically agree. That being said, obviously situations can change in the future.
Ok, disclaimers being done, here's how I understand it from people who know about it.
-------------------------------------------------------------
The Fuh Yuan base deal is done. They will be producing HD DVD players for Wal-Mart.
No one says the deal hasn't been done yet or that the initial order will not be completed. The posting on their web site is a bit confusing, and may be an attempt to stop people form contacting them directly.
I don't know about the significance of the recent post on their site, but it does not affect the base deal. That is in progress and sub-contracts have been made and finalized.
They are looking for the best price and availability they can give to Wal-mart for deliveries above the base amount.
Initial confirmed order quantities are over 1 Million units, its probable the 2 Million units initially mentioned in the first Fuh Yuan press release is the base number. Fuh Yuan has been asked to give quotes and estimates on how quickly numbers above the base quantity can be delivered next year.
Early estimates of full scale mass production in August were evaluated and found to be somewhat aggressive and possibly over optimistic. Physical assembly or staffing or the physical facility is not the issue, a short delay is SoC software related. Plant will be producing at that time but full scale production may slip until October, with initial batch quantities of 5-10 thousand units required to be available in the first week or so of October.
Recent meetings between Fuh Yuan and Broadcom engineers revised the schedule and engineering considerations have lead to the late August to early October production schedule slippage.
Fuh Yuan is making the chassis and loader and doing assembly.
Decoder chip and other silicon being supplied by Broadcom, probably the reference design announced at CES, or a derivative.
The optical unit is based on a Toshiba HD DVD unit design and is being manufactured by the TDK hardware unit under contract.
Wal-Mart has certified the China Great Wall manufacturing facility for Wal-Mart (probably for compliance with stuff like personnel management and environmental considerations) .
Probable limited production runs available in mid-late Oct in some selected Wal-Mart stores. Wal-Mart under control obviously of when they first start to sell the players, but some limited production available to them in October.
I have conflicting information on when the initial 2 million orders is scheduled to be delivered by. One source says all by end of 2007. Several others say, some in October, a lot (around 1 million or so ) by EOY 2007, with the rest in early 2008. The quantity produced by the end of the year may be dependent on the production throughput of the plant which is not known yet.
Its possible that under 50% of the initial 2 M units may be available by the end of the year. Big volume is expected in 2008 and as of now more than 50% of the 2M order is expected after the EOY.
Last Friday Fuh Yuan had a major meeting with Broadcom, perhaps feedback from Broadcom was the reason for the August to October full scale production delay. Broadcom may have to spin the chip or may have a delay in the completion of the embedded software or perhaps Broadcom wanted a bit of room in the overall software schedule.
Several other SoC player deals for HD DVD are now in the works. This isn't the only deal being worked on, though it is one of the largest and obviously significant because it involves Wal-Mart.
All major SoC guys like Broadcom and Sigma are working now on HD DVD solutions. Sigma's Blu-ray SoC solution is available but any units using it will not be in production before this Fuh Yuan device hits the shelves.
My sources for this include several prominent hardware guys in the industry that have been known as being creditable before and are both involved and non-involved in some aspect of the deal. The mods here know some names, but I cannot reveal the sources.
Facebook
Twitter