Maybe it would make sense if polling locations were more or less randomly distributed, but since they are trying to allocate locations to balance the volume it's just not going to work when the voting block is a lot more uniform.
Maybe it would make sense if polling locations were more or less randomly distributed, but since they are trying to allocate locations to balance the volume it's just not going to work when the voting block is a lot more uniform.
hal2kilo
Lifer
- Feb 24, 2009
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hal2kilo
Lifer
- Feb 24, 2009
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Sunburn74
Diamond Member
- Oct 5, 2009
- 5,027
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I mean trump won 2016 by the narrowest of margins with swirling allegations of Russia. Interference or hacking and no one really made a stink about it. What's happening right now is shameful and the entire republican party can rot in hell for what they're doing to our democracy.
Per study from Univeristy of Oregon and Caltech in 2011, Benford's law is useless for voter fraud.
Measuring percentages with Benford's law doesn't make sense because you are limited to numbers between 0-100.
Measuring raw vote counts also doesn't make sense unless you are trying to say that the machines were hacked for tally purposes, not that there were a mix of actual and fraudulent ballots.
As other's have said, there is no actual story here.
Measuring percentages with Benford's law doesn't make sense because you are limited to numbers between 0-100.
Measuring raw vote counts also doesn't make sense unless you are trying to say that the machines were hacked for tally purposes, not that there were a mix of actual and fraudulent ballots.
As other's have said, there is no actual story here.
Interesting site.
www.eipartnership.net
Election Integrity Partnership
The Election Integrity Partnership was formed 100 days before the 2020 presidential election as a coalition of research entities who would focus on supporting real-time information exchange between the research community, election officials, government agencies, civil society organizations, and soci
www.eipartnership.net
hal2kilo
Lifer
- Feb 24, 2009
- 23,442
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Well it's obvious, that they know the endgame. This is the delegitimization of Biden's presidency.Interesting site.
Election Integrity Partnership
The Election Integrity Partnership was formed 100 days before the 2020 presidential election as a coalition of research entities who would focus on supporting real-time information exchange between the research community, election officials, government agencies, civil society organizations, and soci
Viper1j
Diamond Member
- Jul 31, 2018
- 4,169
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Speaking of voter fraud...
What say you Donny?
Trump supporter arrested after requesting absentee ballot for dead mother
Robert R. Lynn has been charged with felony counts of forgery and interference with an election
A Pennsylvania man has been arrested after allegedly forging the signature of his dead mother on an application for an absentee ballot.
Robert R. Lynn, 67, of Luzerne County has been charged with felony counts of forgery and interference with an election, The Huffington Post reports.
Lynn, a Republican and Trump supporter, is accused of requesting an absentee ballot for his mother Marie P. Hannigan, who died in 2015. The application noted Hannigan’s reason for the request as “visiting great-grandkids Oct. 24-Nov. 10,” the complaint states, according to the report
The application was also flagged because the signature reportedly did not match the one on file for Hannigan in the database of voter information. Election officials notified county detectives of the suspicious application.
When questioned by investigators, Lynn initially tried to blame a relative before later confessing to his misdeeds.
This is the first case of alleged voter fraud in the county in three decades.
“There’s always going to be people out there who are trying to take advantage of the system or cheat the system, but most importantly, there’s people on the other side making sure that doesn’t happen,” Luzerne County Manager David Pedri said.
“I hope that this case really proves as an example to any individual who’s thinking that they can do anything with regards to this election. People are watching these things,” Pedri added.
Lynn has been released on $10,000 unsecured bail. If found guilty, he could face up to 10 years in prison.
Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly criticized mail-in voting, claiming it’s a “scam” and a “fraud.”
“They’re sending out tens of millions of ballots to everybody, people that didn’t expect them. People are getting inundated with ballots, they’ll be showered with ballots,” Trump said during a press conference last month.
“Everybody in this room knows it’s a scam,” the president continued, referring to the White House reporters. “They are never going to be able to count them.”
What say you Donny?
Trump supporter arrested after requesting absentee ballot for dead mother
Robert R. Lynn has been charged with felony counts of forgery and interference with an election
A Pennsylvania man has been arrested after allegedly forging the signature of his dead mother on an application for an absentee ballot.
Robert R. Lynn, 67, of Luzerne County has been charged with felony counts of forgery and interference with an election, The Huffington Post reports.
Lynn, a Republican and Trump supporter, is accused of requesting an absentee ballot for his mother Marie P. Hannigan, who died in 2015. The application noted Hannigan’s reason for the request as “visiting great-grandkids Oct. 24-Nov. 10,” the complaint states, according to the report
The application was also flagged because the signature reportedly did not match the one on file for Hannigan in the database of voter information. Election officials notified county detectives of the suspicious application.
When questioned by investigators, Lynn initially tried to blame a relative before later confessing to his misdeeds.
This is the first case of alleged voter fraud in the county in three decades.
“There’s always going to be people out there who are trying to take advantage of the system or cheat the system, but most importantly, there’s people on the other side making sure that doesn’t happen,” Luzerne County Manager David Pedri said.
“I hope that this case really proves as an example to any individual who’s thinking that they can do anything with regards to this election. People are watching these things,” Pedri added.
Lynn has been released on $10,000 unsecured bail. If found guilty, he could face up to 10 years in prison.
Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly criticized mail-in voting, claiming it’s a “scam” and a “fraud.”
“They’re sending out tens of millions of ballots to everybody, people that didn’t expect them. People are getting inundated with ballots, they’ll be showered with ballots,” Trump said during a press conference last month.
“Everybody in this room knows it’s a scam,” the president continued, referring to the White House reporters. “They are never going to be able to count them.”
Because of the Google algorithm this video was suggested to me. Thought people may find it interesting.
Basically it breaks down why Benford's Law doesn't work here and how another forensic tool does, and when doing so. It demonstrates randomness.
Basically it breaks down why Benford's Law doesn't work here and how another forensic tool does, and when doing so. It demonstrates randomness.
woolfe9998
Lifer
- Apr 8, 2013
- 16,188
- 14,092
- 136
An article about wealthy people who donated to various "stop the steal" organizations these past few months. How they kept promising evidence which never materialized. And how the money often went to Trump affiliated contractors.
Big surprise. I suspect more and more will come out over time about how all this money was spent.
Big surprise. I suspect more and more will come out over time about how all this money was spent.
Surprisingly (given that it's an encyclopedia not a journal), wikipedia has already caught up with this story.
en.wikipedia.org
Wiki's references
www.reuters.com
From a cursory scan-reading of it, it seems that (a) Benford's law is not proven to be a reliable indicator of electoral fraud in general, and (b) in this case, given the size of the electoral precincts, the range of numbers being looked at is too narrow for it to be applicable anyway.
Benford's law - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Wiki's references
Benford’s law and the 2020 US presidential election: nothing out of the ordinary – Physics World
Data scientists queue up to explain why claims of irregular vote tallies don't hold water
physicsworld.com
Fact check: Deviation from Benford’s Law does not prove election fraud
Social media users have been sharing posts that say a mathematical rule called Benford’s Law provides clear proof of fraud in the U.S. presidential election. However, research papers and academics consulted by Reuters consistently say that deviation from Benford’s Law does...
www.reuters.com
From a cursory scan-reading of it, it seems that (a) Benford's law is not proven to be a reliable indicator of electoral fraud in general, and (b) in this case, given the size of the electoral precincts, the range of numbers being looked at is too narrow for it to be applicable anyway.
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The main objection appears to be this
Also, the thought that I had, is if there is some statistical property that you find common to all collections of numbers, from random domains (e.g. heights of the buildings in a city), why would it not just as well apply to the results of a fraudulent election as to a legitimate one? Because election fraud usually isn't just one guy making up a single list of numbers (like a crooked scientist inventing the results of his experiment), it's a complex process involving lots of imperfectly-co-ordinated inputsby many different people, so any statistical law that applies to real votes would likely apply equally well to fraudulent ones. So how could such a statistical test distinguish between the two cases?
Also, the thought that I had, is if there is some statistical property that you find common to all collections of numbers, from random domains (e.g. heights of the buildings in a city), why would it not just as well apply to the results of a fraudulent election as to a legitimate one? Because election fraud usually isn't just one guy making up a single list of numbers (like a crooked scientist inventing the results of his experiment), it's a complex process involving lots of imperfectly-co-ordinated inputsby many different people, so any statistical law that applies to real votes would likely apply equally well to fraudulent ones. So how could such a statistical test distinguish between the two cases?
I'm just relieved to realise it was a postal vote fraud and not an in-person one involving some disturbing Norman Bates shennanigans.
It's an exercise in simulated rationality. First, declare the election to be stolen on the basis of no evidence whatsoever, then apply pseudo-science to justify that position after the fact. Might as well believe Roger Stone's theory about bogus N Korean ballots smuggled in thru Maine.
Lanyap
Elite Member
- Dec 23, 2000
- 8,106
- 2,157
- 136
Is it me or does it seem like trump supporters are either grifters or victims of these grifters.
www.independent.co.uk
Republican donor who gave $2.5m to investigate Trump’s bogus ‘voter fraud’ claims wants his money back
True the Vote claimed to be undertaking an investigation into the claims of voter fraud and had filed lawsuits across four states, which it subsequently withdrew
www.independent.co.uk
hal2kilo
Lifer
- Feb 24, 2009
- 23,442
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