Virginia solid blue?

[Farang]

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-551.html

Two big polls out today.. I usually hate poll threads but this is pretty big news and it is based off of two new polls that agree in their surprising assessment of things. Combine this with the Columbia Dispatch's 2000+ voter poll giving Obama a 7 point lead in Ohio, and I think Obama has been catching up more in battleground states than even his national poll numbers would indicate.

 

[nageov3t]

only thing that worries me is the percentage of undecideds... if there's a secret racist voting block, that's probably where they're hiding.

 

[mshan]

I don't know about Ohio.

Chuck Todd on First Read today said Obama hasn't been visiting Ohio much - inference: his internal polling says he's either in strong command there (kind of doubt that), or it still is home field for McLame.

Virginia looks like it might hinge on Hampton Roads, and Florida might hinge on Tampa Bay area (as Chuck Todd previously said, just watch where the candidates and their surrogates keep returning).

Almost looks like with choice of Palin and Biden, Ohio and Florida swapped positions as more likely Obama win.

 

[Vette73]

Originally posted by: loki8481
only thing that worries me is the percentage of undecideds... if there's a secret racist voting block, that's probably where they're hiding.

Well I whonder that as well as I have said before I know people who usually vote republican but will not, as they say, make thet mistake again. But in the same breath they would also never vote for a black person. So what they do inside the voting booth could decide some states.

 

[Stoneburner]

I think Obama's people see more pushable and new voters in Florida, thus the $39 million. I think they may rely on ground game in Ohio.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: mshan
I don't know about Ohio.

Chuck Todd on First Read today said Obama hasn't been visiting Ohio much - inference: his internal polling says he's either in strong command there (kind of doubt that), or it still is home field for McLame.

Virginia looks like it might hinge on Hampton Roads, and Florida might hinge on Tampa Bay area (as Chuck Todd previously said, just watch where the candidates and their surrogates keep returning).

Almost looks like with choice of Palin and Biden, Ohio and Florida swapped positions as more likely Obama win.

If these polls are any indication I think Chuck Todd's Sunday analysis may be outdated and VA gets taken out of the toss-up category. I do find it odd that Obama seems to be ignoring Ohio, my guess is he only has so much time and it is only necessary for him to lock down one or two more states while playing defense in PA that he might just be picking out FL and VA to win the race.

 

[quest55720]

This election is over Obama will win by a landslide. If the RNC is smart they will pull all McCain ads and put that money into close senate races. The only hope for this country is the republicans keeping 41 seats in the senate to block all the shit Obama/Pelosi want.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: quest55720
This election is over Obama will win by a landslide. If the RNC is smart they will pull all McCain ads and put that money into close senate races. The only hope for this country is the republicans keeping 41 seats in the senate to block all the shit Obama/Pelosi want.

THE RNC is not smart and they are probably going to gamble on the presidency. Your idea may be the more reasonable course though, considering that Liddy Dole, Chambliss, Norm Coleman, and even MItch McConnel are in the danger zone.

 

[CellarDoor]

I think Virginia looks pretty good for Obama, especially because it's one of the states where Obama outperformed the polls during the primary.

 

[Genx87]

McCain lost this race 3 weeks ago by going negative and stretching the truth. While they did this Obama picked it apart and twisted the sword. To make things worse this bailout is a boon to democrats. They are seen as better on domestic economic policy. Baring some miracle Obama is going to win. The only thing that has to be settled is how much of a majority will he have to work within congress.

 

[quest55720]

Originally posted by: Genx87
McCain lost this race 3 weeks ago by going negative and stretching the truth. While they did this Obama picked it apart and twisted the sword. To make things worse this bailout is a boon to democrats. They are seen as better on domestic economic policy. Baring some miracle Obama is going to win. The only thing that has to be settled is how much of a majority will he have to work within congress.

No he lost it the second all the economic issues became the story. The MSM has put every single problem on McCain. It is the RNCs fault they had plenty of tape to make ads showing it was the democrats who ignored warnings about freddie and fannie. They ignored it now the presidental race is over.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: quest55720

Originally posted by: Genx87
McCain lost this race 3 weeks ago by going negative and stretching the truth. While they did this Obama picked it apart and twisted the sword. To make things worse this bailout is a boon to democrats. They are seen as better on domestic economic policy. Baring some miracle Obama is going to win. The only thing that has to be settled is how much of a majority will he have to work within congress.

No he lost it the second all the economic issues became the story. The MSM has put every single problem on McCain. It is the RNCs fault they had plenty of tape to make ads showing it was the democrats who ignored warnings about freddie and fannie. They ignored it now the presidental race is over.

The problem is that this crisis is largely a regulatory one. McCain has made his career as an anti-regulator. Even though that's not so much the case with this particular crisis, the Republicans and McCain are still seen as deregulators dealing with a problem that the public believes to be caused by too little regulation. That's a hard tide to fight against.

Then McCain made a catastrophic error in suspending his campaign to go attach himself to the highly unpopular bailout bill... that failed to pass. So not only did he tie himself to something nobody liked, but a lot of people viewed it as a political stunt... and then he failed. His actions in the week following the start of the banking crisis sank his candidacy. (most likely)

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: quest55720

Originally posted by: Genx87
McCain lost this race 3 weeks ago by going negative and stretching the truth. While they did this Obama picked it apart and twisted the sword. To make things worse this bailout is a boon to democrats. They are seen as better on domestic economic policy. Baring some miracle Obama is going to win. The only thing that has to be settled is how much of a majority will he have to work within congress.

No he lost it the second all the economic issues became the story. The MSM has put every single problem on McCain. It is the RNCs fault they had plenty of tape to make ads showing it was the democrats who ignored warnings about freddie and fannie. They ignored it now the presidental race is over.

stop trying to blame this on democrats blocking some bill in 2006, by then the damage was done. Action needed to be taken in 2003-2004, if not earlier.

 

[miketheidiot]

and yes, at this point VA is probably out of play.

 

[Ferocious]

Originally posted by: quest55720

Originally posted by: Genx87
McCain lost this race 3 weeks ago by going negative and stretching the truth. While they did this Obama picked it apart and twisted the sword. To make things worse this bailout is a boon to democrats. They are seen as better on domestic economic policy. Baring some miracle Obama is going to win. The only thing that has to be settled is how much of a majority will he have to work within congress.

No he lost it the second all the economic issues became the story. The MSM has put every single problem on McCain. It is the RNCs fault they had plenty of tape to make ads showing it was the democrats who ignored warnings about freddie and fannie. They ignored it now the presidental race is over.

:thumbsdown:

People are starting to (finally) get tired of this crap the RNC spews.


It's Jimmy Carter's fault, don't ya know??

 

[Dari]

I haven't seen lupi too much so things aren't going well in Virginia.

 

[Stoneburner]

Quest - the polls started turning before the Lehman collapse. It was combination of the media backlash against the McCain "not 100 percent truth" ads and the Palin embarrassment with Charlie Gibson. The wallstreet stuff has exacerbated a problem mccain already had.

He should not have gone negative so soon. It would have been bad enough considering HE would be called a hypocrite for being negative, but as soon as even conservatives started questioning his negativity, Obama's team responded in kind and they were in a morally superior position. Now, as obama shifts to Keating and mccain's past troubles, his team will once again invoke the fact "McCain started it" so they will look like they are just defending themselves.

 

[magomago]

with all these predictions for Obama...i'm wondering if it will turn out like previous elections where McCain just surges through.

 

[techs]

It anin't over til its over. Obama got a bump from the Palin fallout and the economic news.
I expect that he will see some drop off of that support as time passes. I really don't see Obama as up anything more than 2-3 points nationally after the re-adjustments. It is still way too close a race to call.

 

[chess9]

Virginia and North Carolina have become much more cosmopolitan over the last 10 years. Meaning, more Yankees are retiring down there. The change started in the '60's and has accelerated. Go to Asheville and you have more Yankees than Tar Heels.

The moderation of their politics was inevitable.

If Obama takes North Carolina, I will be surprised. I won't be surprised if he wins Virginia as they've been trending Dem for awhile.

-Robert

 

[brencat]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
The problem is that this crisis is largely a regulatory one. McCain has made his career as an anti-regulator. Even though that's not so much the case with this particular crisis, the Republicans and McCain are still seen as deregulators dealing with a problem that the public believes to be caused by too little regulation. That's a hard tide to fight against.

That's what the impression is...that it is a lack of regulation that caused the problem. Funny, but no one gave a damn about regulation when their houses were appreciating at 15+% annually. When they were using their homes as ATMs to buy fancy cars, new kitchens, and European vacations, not to mention keeping up with the Jones'.

No, I believe the real problem is lack of individual discipline in running up all this personal debt via housing. All the other stuff is ancillary. I've argued many times of Greenspan's culpability in keeping rates too low for too long, but at the end of the day, people should take responsibility for their actions -- including saying 'no' to a $700k house if you only have 5% to put down and $50k of income.

Look at it this way, people have been taken advantage of for generations by smooth talking car salesmen, but typically expect it and know to watch out for it. Why should people suddenly let their guard down when making one of the single biggest purchases of their lives? Of course there are unscrupulous lenders and dirtbag brokers. The world is a nasty place. Time to wake up people. Just wish we were all a little smarter so it wouldn't have to take a financial meltdown to teach people to be savvy.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: brencat

Originally posted by: eskimospy
The problem is that this crisis is largely a regulatory one. McCain has made his career as an anti-regulator. Even though that's not so much the case with this particular crisis, the Republicans and McCain are still seen as deregulators dealing with a problem that the public believes to be caused by too little regulation. That's a hard tide to fight against.

That's what the impression is...that it is a lack of regulation that caused the problem. Funny, but no one gave a damn about regulation when their houses were appreciating at 15+% annually. When they were using their homes as ATMs to buy fancy cars, new kitchens, and European vacations, not to mention keeping up with the Jones'.
No, I believe the real problem is lack of individual discipline in running up all this personal debt via housing. All the other stuff is ancillary. I've argued many times of Greenspan's culpability in keeping rates too low for too long, but at the end of the day, people should take responsibility for their actions -- including saying 'no' to a $700k house if you only have 5% to put down and $50k of income.

Look at it this way, people have been taken advantage of for generations by smooth talking car salesmen, but typically expect it and know to watch out for it. Why should people suddenly let their guard down when making one of the single biggest purchases of their lives? Of course there are unscrupulous lenders and dirtbag brokers. The world is a nasty place. Time to wake up people. Just wish we were all a little smarter so it wouldn't have to take a financial meltdown to teach people to be savvy.

I did. Then again, I always second-guess everything but I remember all the (muted) warnings from economists and even the Feds. Of course, for many of them it was sort of a hedge but the warnings were always there and if you looked at the fundamentals at the time you knew this shit wasn't sustainable.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: brencat

Originally posted by: eskimospy
The problem is that this crisis is largely a regulatory one. McCain has made his career as an anti-regulator. Even though that's not so much the case with this particular crisis, the Republicans and McCain are still seen as deregulators dealing with a problem that the public believes to be caused by too little regulation. That's a hard tide to fight against.

That's what the impression is...that it is a lack of regulation that caused the problem. Funny, but no one gave a damn about regulation when their houses were appreciating at 15+% annually. When they were using their homes as ATMs to buy fancy cars, new kitchens, and European vacations, not to mention keeping up with the Jones'.
No, I believe the real problem is lack of individual discipline in running up all this personal debt via housing. All the other stuff is ancillary. I've argued many times of Greenspan's culpability in keeping rates too low for too long, but at the end of the day, people should take responsibility for their actions -- including saying 'no' to a $700k house if you only have 5% to put down and $50k of income.

Look at it this way, people have been taken advantage of for generations by smooth talking car salesmen, but typically expect it and know to watch out for it. Why should people suddenly let their guard down when making one of the single biggest purchases of their lives? Of course there are unscrupulous lenders and dirtbag brokers. The world is a nasty place. Time to wake up people. Just wish we were all a little smarter so it wouldn't have to take a financial meltdown to teach people to be savvy.

I did. Then again, I always second-guess everything but I remember all the (muted) warnings from economists and even the Feds. Of course, for many of them it was sort of a hedge but the warnings were always there and if you looked at the fundamentals at the time you knew this shit wasn't sustainable.

Heck, you could even read about here on this forum on a daily basis.
In case you're wondering:
I TOLD YOU SO

 

[Specop 007]

Frankly, I'm surpised McCain has done as well as he has to be honest. You know you've pissed off the public when a communist with terrorist ties is beating you!

 

[Kerouactivist]

Originally posted by: Specop 007
Frankly, I'm surpised McCain has done as well as he has to be honest. You know you've pissed off the public when a communist with terrorist ties is beating you!

Wow... just wow...