Vice Presidential Choice

[Fern]

I think we've had plenty of polls and predictions. I want to do something different here. I'd like to consider the overall strategy employed in choosing a VP.

I've always sort of considered it a choice between choosing someone to help shore up a candidates weakness (like Biden for Obama to help with foreign policy experience), or Kaine to help win an important swing state.

But I heard Dick Morris outline the strategy for McCain differently the other night, I thought he was dead on.

He said for McCain that there are basically two schools of thought now being arguing among the Repubs.

1. You choose a VP to shore up your base, or

2. You choose a VP to help attract independant voters and Dems who may not feel comfortable with Obama.

And that sounds exactly like what McCain is mulling over. One the one hand, we've seen trial ballons about Liebermann (moderate Dem) and another pro-choice possibility - Tom Ridge. We've also had talk of a woman (Palin).

OTOH, we've got pro-GOP talking heads like Hannity screaming about the party base and warning against those kind of choices.

I'm not sure which strategy would be the best. I've no idea how many independants or Dems there are to even try to attract. Nor do I know how the RR would act with those two pro-choice candidates. I do think this is not a strategy consideration (base vs independants) for Obama, I believe the Dem base is squarely behind him.

I suppose we'll see pretty soon which way McCain goes. On the other hand I wouldn't be too surprised if McCain throws strategy out the window and just uses his gut to pick someone he's comfortable with.

Fern

 

[fskimospy]

If McCain picks Lieberman, it's because he's convinced that he's already lost the election. It would be a 100% hail mary pass. Considering Lieberman is pretty damn liberal on most issues other than the war, he would be in effect surrendering to the idea that Republicans simply can't win on their own ideas this year. Not only that, but it would end up causing him profound difficulties if he actually did win.

I think he's also unlikely to pick a hard right guy. The Republican base is so small at this point that shoring it up just isn't worth it in my opinion. McCain can't win by going to the right.

I imagine he will pick a centrist GOP guy who has some youth to him. I could see Romney, I could see Ridge. (Ridge would be the most radical choice I can see McCain making unless he's totally desperate) Regardless it will be someone younger than him (ok, I guess that's a given.. haha), and it will be someone who can help him peel away disaffected Democrats.

 

[ProfJohn]

I think Ridge would be a good choice.

As would Romney.

I don't think he should really worry about the 'base' they are going to be there no matter what. Obama is supper liberal and that should be enough to get all the right wingers out to vote.

BTW Lieberman makes no sense at all, not sure why he would do that unless he thought he was going to lose FL and needed the Jewish voters Liberman might bring him.

 

[Fern]

Eskimospy & PL (they seem to agree here )

So you're going with Morris's prefernce (#2 above - attract some indies and Dems)?

I'm inclined to agree. And if so, it'll be fun to watch Hannity explode.

Fern

 

[seemingly random]

Lieberman used to be a democrat. It seems that he's been siding with the administration a lot the last five years. Not sure what his game is.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Senators McCain and Obama both need VP candidates who shores up their weaknesses, not an "electoral college" choice. While Obama needs a second with some gravitas and foreign policy or executive experience, McCain needs a VP who's obviously qualified for the First Chair. Given his age and medical history, Senator McCain needs to address the very real possibility he may not survive the stress of a full presidential term. If he picks a lightweight (by any measure), expect the Democrats to push the age & health issues even harder.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I think Ridge would be a good choice.

As would Romney.

I don't think he should really worry about the 'base' they are going to be there no matter what.

Obama is supper liberal and that should be enough to get all the right wingers out to vote.

BTW Lieberman makes no sense at all, not sure why he would do that unless he thought he was going to lose FL and needed the Jewish voters Liberman might bring him.

Signs of "the Base" coming out in force are starting to show.

People that aid they were going to vote for Obama I knew all along were only joking.

Dems lost any chance at the White House seat when they threw Hillary under the bus.

McCain is no danger of losing Florida.

Jewish or not they will not vote for Obama either the people or the Electoral folks.

 

[seemingly random]

We need to bring back dan quayle. :laugh:

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: seemingly random
We need to bring back dan quayle. :laugh:

Hey it worked for them then

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: CallMeJoe
Senators McCain and Obama both need VP candidates who shores up their weaknesses, not an "electoral college" choice. While Obama needs a second with some gravitas and foreign policy or executive experience, McCain needs a VP who's obviously qualified for the First Chair. Given his age and medical history, Senator McCain needs to address the very real possibility he may not survive the stress of a full presidential term. If he picks a lightweight (by any measure), expect the Democrats to push the age & health issues even harder.

The fear of McCain dying is WAY WAY WAY over stated.

1. His mom is 90+ and still going strong.

2. Bush 41 is 90+ and still going strong.

3. People made the same argument about Reagan when he ran for his second term in 1984 and he lived another 20 years.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: CallMeJoe
Senators McCain and Obama both need VP candidates who shores up their weaknesses, not an "electoral college" choice. While Obama needs a second with some gravitas and foreign policy or executive experience, McCain needs a VP who's obviously qualified for the First Chair. Given his age and medical history, Senator McCain needs to address the very real possibility he may not survive the stress of a full presidential term. If he picks a lightweight (by any measure), expect the Democrats to push the age & health issues even harder.

The fear of McCain dying is WAY WAY WAY over stated.

1. His mom is 90+ and still going strong.

2. Bush 41 is 90+ and still going strong.

3. People made the same argument about Reagan when he ran for his second term in 1984 and he lived another 20 years.

If I remember right I read somewhere that considering his age he has about a 35% chance of dying in office if he serves 2 terms. That's really really fucking high considering how big of a deal it is if the president dies.

Of course that's a very general term as it doesn't take into account the top notch medical care he has access to, but then again it also doesn't take into account his stress levels.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: CallMeJoe
Senators McCain and Obama both need VP candidates who shores up their weaknesses, not an "electoral college" choice. While Obama needs a second with some gravitas and foreign policy or executive experience, McCain needs a VP who's obviously qualified for the First Chair. Given his age and medical history, Senator McCain needs to address the very real possibility he may not survive the stress of a full presidential term. If he picks a lightweight (by any measure), expect the Democrats to push the age & health issues even harder.

The fear of McCain dying is WAY WAY WAY over stated.
1. His mom is 90+ and still going strong.
2. Bush 41 is 90+ and still going strong.
3. People made the same argument about Reagan when he ran for his second term in 1984 and he lived another 20 years.

The probability of his dying is exaggerated, but the fear of his dying is a potent campaign tool.

 

[seemingly random]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: CallMeJoe
Senators McCain and Obama both need VP candidates who shores up their weaknesses, not an "electoral college" choice. While Obama needs a second with some gravitas and foreign policy or executive experience, McCain needs a VP who's obviously qualified for the First Chair. Given his age and medical history, Senator McCain needs to address the very real possibility he may not survive the stress of a full presidential term. If he picks a lightweight (by any measure), expect the Democrats to push the age & health issues even harder.

The fear of McCain dying is WAY WAY WAY over stated.

1. His mom is 90+ and still going strong.

2. Bush 41 is 90+ and still going strong.

3. People made the same argument about Reagan when he ran for his second term in 1984 and he lived another 20 years.

There's a high likelihood that reagan's alzheimers had already begun before he left office. There were public appearances where it was plainly visible that his wife had to tell him what to say.

I wouldn't say that age alone qualifies or disqualifies anyone. There are people in their 60s that show marked decline. But I do recall a couple of occasions in the last few months that lieberman had to tell mccain what to say. It could be starting already.

The fact that someone is still going strong at 90 (read: can still get up and use the bathroom unaided) doesn't necessarily qualify them to be president - a physically (if not intellectually) demanding job.

 

[glenn1]

Originally posted by: Fern

He said for McCain that there are basically two schools of thought now being arguing among the Repubs.

1. You choose a VP to shore up your base, or

2. You choose a VP to help attract independant voters and Dems who may not feel comfortable with Obama.

I think McCain could also be said to have a 3rd option, select a rising star type person who represents the "next generation" of republican. For that, Sarah Palin would probably be a good choice for an heir apparent. This might attract some of the independent woman/Hillary voters as well, presuming Obama doesn't choose her as his VP (which I think is unlikely at this point. Bobby Jindal would probably also get a mention along with Palin, but would probably choose to wait a few years to run for the top of the ticket on his own.

 

[Thump553]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
If McCain picks Lieberman, it's because he's convinced that he's already lost the election. It would be a 100% hail mary pass. Considering Lieberman is pretty damn liberal on most issues other than the war, he would be in effect surrendering to the idea that Republicans simply can't win on their own ideas this year. Not only that, but it would end up causing him profound difficulties if he actually did win.

I think he's also unlikely to pick a hard right guy. The Republican base is so small at this point that shoring it up just isn't worth it in my opinion. McCain can't win by going to the right.

I imagine he will pick a centrist GOP guy who has some youth to him. I could see Romney, I could see Ridge. (Ridge would be the most radical choice I can see McCain making unless he's totally desperate) Regardless it will be someone younger than him (ok, I guess that's a given.. haha), and it will be someone who can help him peel away disaffected Democrats.

Liberman liberal? Not the joker from my state-maybe a dozen years ago, but these days he's a one trick pony-war, war, war.

Liberman might give McCain a good shot at moderates (fro areas that don't know the actual Liberman) but it would be an absolute gross insult to all GOP politicians-shutting them out of the future presidential slot. I just don't see that happening in the practical world of politics.

But really when you come down to it the VP selection is only important if (a) a diasterous pick (Tom Eagleton) is made or (b) you are a political junkie. If the VP selection actually influences more than 1-2% of real voters, I'd be surpised. Don't believe me? See hwo many recent losing VP candidates you can name-how example, who ran with Bob Dole 12 years ago?

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: glenn1
-snip-
I think McCain could also be said to have a 3rd option, select a rising star type person who represents the "next generation" of republican.

I hear ya.

Also, CallMeJoe suggests it has to be somebody seen as capable of taking over.

Yet I still think these 2 considerations can be fit into Morris's paradigm.

Is the somebody fit to takeover a choice who appeals to indies or the "base"?

Is the new rising star somebody who appeals to the base or indies? But that's a tough call. I think choosing someone who appeals to indies has a more immediate benefit to Repubs/McCain. But will such a person hold appeal for the Repubs in the future? IDK, and it would be almost like gambling on the Repub party being less reliant on the RR in the future.

OTOH, if you pick VP who is more likely to be popular in the future with Repubs (someone the RR likes), is McCain dooming himself and them? I'm guess Palin, Jindal or others may have to give up their current position to run on the ticket. But that's not sure, IIRC each state has it's own rules.

Fern

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: Fern

Originally posted by: glenn1
-snip-
I think McCain could also be said to have a 3rd option, select a rising star type person who represents the "next generation" of republican.

I hear ya.

Also, CallMeJoe suggests it has to be somebody seen as capable of taking over.

Yet I still think these 2 considerations can be fit into Morris's paradigm.

Is the somebody fit to takeover a choice who appeals to indies or the "base"?

Is the new rising star somebody who appeals to the base or indies? But that's a tough call. I think choosing someone who appeals to indies has a more immediate benefit to Repubs/McCain. But will such a person hold appeal for the Repubs in the future? IDK, and it would be almost like gambling on the Repub party being less reliant on the RR in the future.

OTOH, if you pick VP who is more likely to be popular in the future with Repubs (someone the RR likes), is McCain dooming himself and them? I'm guess Palin, Jindal or others may have to give up their current position to run on the ticket. But that's not sure, IIRC each state has it's own rules.

Fern

I think if they pick a moderate guy they might lose a future election, but if they pick a hard right guy they are certain to lose this one.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: Thump553
-snip-
But really when you come down to it the VP selection is only important if (a) a diasterous pick (Tom Eagleton) is made or (b) you are a political junkie. If the VP selection actually influences more than 1-2% of real voters, I'd be surpised. Don't believe me? See hwo many recent losing VP candidates you can name-how example, who ran with Bob Dole 12 years ago?

You may be right, and most seemed to feel that way until recently.

However, lately a lot of political analyists seem to be changing their minds and think this cycle it will carry an unusual amount of significance.

Something's got to move the pretty big group of undecided's to one camp or the other. Maybe it will be the debates, some "swiftboat" ads, the VP choice or even some upcoming unforseen event. IDK

Fern

 

[CallMeJoe]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
I think if they pick a moderate guy they might lose a future election, but if they pick a hard right guy they are certain to lose this one.

Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to blow a presidential election. W should have been done in 2004; we all know how that one turned out.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: CallMeJoe

Originally posted by: eskimospy
I think if they pick a moderate guy they might lose a future election, but if they pick a hard right guy they are certain to lose this one.

Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to blow a presidential election. W should have been done in 2004; we all know how that one turned out.

^ Hehe, now that you mention it.

I've been watching the Obama vs Clinton stuff regarding the convention.

Obama has agreed to fully count the FL & MI delegate vote.

Obama has now agreed to put Hillary on the roll call vote. Uh oh.

Obama has now agreed to let Hillary, Bill, Chelsea, and the Thompson-Bloodworth's (or whatever those Ark Clinton supporters name is?) on the stage at the convention.

If they lose control of the convention and it gets ugly, no telling what may happen.

Fern

 

[Double Trouble]

Originally posted by: eskimospy
If McCain picks Lieberman, it's because he's convinced that he's already lost the election. It would be a 100% hail mary pass. Considering Lieberman is pretty damn liberal on most issues other than the war, he would be in effect surrendering to the idea that Republicans simply can't win on their own ideas this year. Not only that, but it would end up causing him profound difficulties if he actually did win.

I think he's also unlikely to pick a hard right guy. The Republican base is so small at this point that shoring it up just isn't worth it in my opinion. McCain can't win by going to the right.

I imagine he will pick a centrist GOP guy who has some youth to him. I could see Romney, I could see Ridge. (Ridge would be the most radical choice I can see McCain making unless he's totally desperate) Regardless it will be someone younger than him (ok, I guess that's a given.. haha), and it will be someone who can help him peel away disaffected Democrats.

:thumbsup:

That sounds about right.

I'd go with option #2, pick someone who might be able to pick up dems and independents who are not comfortable with Obama. I'm convinced there are A LOT of those up for grabs, way more than ever before. The fact that McCain is within a few points in the polls despite everything - the economy, Bush as an anchor, his age, the war, the media's love for Obamessiah, lack of enthusiasm on the right etc etc tells me there are a huge amount of people who don't want another Bush term, but who also don't feel comfortable with BHO.

Palin sounds like a good choice to me though, she'd certainly be able to take some of the Hillary supporters who are not all that enamored with BHO.

 

[Thump553]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
The fear of McCain dying is WAY WAY WAY over stated.

1. His mom is 90+ and still going strong.

2. Bush 41 is 90+ and still going strong.

3. People made the same argument about Reagan when he ran for his second term in 1984 and he lived another 20 years.

PJ: if you were around during Reagan's presidency, then you know that he was a shadow of his original self by the time his second term ended. Frankly I think his Alzheimer's was already starting to kick in (and I don't mean that in an insulting way-my mother died of it).

Also, you are factually wrong re George H. W. Bush, whose birthdate is 6/12/1924-he's 84 this year. Anyone with elderly parents/relatives can tell you there is a huge difference between early/mid eighties and over ninety.

As a borderline older American, I think the real concern is not McCain dying in office but him deteriorating so badly that he really shouldn't be President. Ask anyone you know over the age of 60 if they think a generic 72 y.o. should be President-you'll get an overwhelming amount of no answers.

 

[IGBT]

..mabe the obama selects Mikhail Gorbachev as his VP. Like minds to say the least.

 

[ProfJohn]

IMO the idea age for a President is late 50s early 60s.

Enough experience but not 'old'

Sadly both candidates have age problems this year. Obama to young and inexperienced, McCain to old and risky.

McCain's age problem only becomes an issue if he has a health problem at some point. Obama's will be with him the first few years of his Presidency.

And let's be honest, NO ONE is going to vote based on age. To much difference between these two for people to decide it based on age.

 

[nageov3t]

would it change the age factor if McCain made a public promise to only serve a single term and not run for reelection?