VEGA10/VEGA11 prices

[guskline]

I know it's way early for this, especially since Polaris 10/11 have not launched yet but I thought it best to start a separate thread to get our "hunches" (cause that's really all it is at this time) on the 2017 launch prices of Vega.

As I understand it Vega 10 will be the highest end with Vega 11 being slightly slower (I can't figure that one out to save my life!😱)

Anyway, Vega 10 or the BIG Vega will be 14nm but at least 8G if not 16G of HBM2. My hunch? At least $799 if not slightly more. Here's why. Fury X released at @$659 MSRP. Why would AMD release a newer, faster gpu with significantly more ram for the same price?

Your thoughts.

 

[digitaldurandal]

I know it's way early for this, especially since Polaris 10/11 have not launched yet but I thought it best to start a separate thread to get our "hunches" (cause that's really all it is at this time) on the 2017 launch prices of Vega.

As I understand it Vega 10 will be the highest end with Vega 11 being slightly slower (I can't figure that one out to save my life!😱)

Anyway, Vega 10 or the BIG Vega will be 14nm but at least 8G if not 16G of HBM2. My hunch? At least $799 if not slightly more. Here's why. Fury X released at @$659 MSRP. Why would AMD release a newer, faster gpu with significantly more ram for the same price?

Your thoughts.

Their past GPU does not matter when determining the new GPU. The top tier GPU does not creep each cycle (necessarily.) What will matter is the performance and price of Pascal and the performance of Vega. AMD will have to compete with Nvidia who will be first to market.

There is no reasonable way to estimate the price of Vega 8+ months prior to release and without the release of any GPUs from this generation. Any information stated here is a near random guess unless you have some insider info.

 

[Head1985]

vega 11- 8GB HBM2 10-15% faster than GP104 and 550USD-tahiti like SKU(size and cost)
Vega 10- 8-16GB HBM2.Hawaii size SKU, but this will be new Fury so 650USD.

 

[Face2Face]

I'm guessing VEGA's prices are going to be similar to Fury's pricing. I also don't think water cooled GPUs will be reference anymore; however, I won't be surprised if most AIB's start jumping on that band wagon. I wonder if the node shrink will make these GPUs harder to cool, since we're talking about half the surface area (maybe?)

 

[guskline]

Perhaps Vega 10 with 8G HBM2 will be $659 and 16G will be $749?

 

[ShintaiDK]

Before speculation goes too far.

8GB=2048bit and 16GB=4096bit. Just as 256bit GDDR5X=8GB minimum, 384bit=12GB minimum etc.

8GB cards would get owned by GDDR5X.

 

[96Firebird]

Depends on the competition.

 

[maddie]

As far as I know the whole Vega 10 and 11 naming is guesswork.

Koduri said that Polaris 10 & 11 naming came about due to time when started design and if any new ones arrived, would continue with higher numbers.

Who knows if the bigger or smaller Vega designs started first. So, Vega 10 could be the small one for all we know.

 

[R0H1T]

Before speculation goes too far.

8GB=2048bit and 16GB=4096bit. Just as 256bit GDDR5X=8GB minimum, 384bit=12GB minimum etc.

8GB cards would get owned by GDDR5X.

You sure about that, they could just as easily get a lesser dense HBM2 cube & still go 4096bit :\

 

[maddie]

Before speculation goes too far.

8GB=2048bit and 16GB=4096bit. Just as 256bit GDDR5X=8GB minimum, 384bit=12GB minimum etc.

8GB cards would get owned by GDDR5X.

Do 4 stacks of 2GB HBM2 = 2048bit?

I understood it to be 1024bit / stack.


edit:
Yes R0H1T, too much FUD being passed as wisdom.

 

[Timmah!]

I know it's way early for this, especially since Polaris 10/11 have not launched yet but I thought it best to start a separate thread to get our "hunches" (cause that's really all it is at this time) on the 2017 launch prices of Vega.

As I understand it Vega 10 will be the highest end with Vega 11 being slightly slower (I can't figure that one out to save my life!😱)

Anyway, Vega 10 or the BIG Vega will be 14nm but at least 8G if not 16G of HBM2. My hunch? At least $799 if not slightly more. Here's why. Fury X released at @$659 MSRP. Why would AMD release a newer, faster gpu with significantly more ram for the same price?

Your thoughts.

Is this serious question? How about cause if they keep making it more expensive with every new product, cause its faster than previous one its meant to replace, we will eventually end at 5000 USD per GPU?

Its supposed to be newer and faster. Why would anyone want to buy it, if it was the same as FuryX?

 

[ShintaiDK]

You sure about that, they could just as easily get a lesser dense HBM2 cube & still go 4096bit :\

2 stack hi=Half bandwidth.

Do 4 stacks of 2GB HBM2 = 2048bit?

I understood it to be 1024bit / stack.


edit:
Yes R0H1T, too much FUD being passed as wisdom.

Never a serious moment with you.

 

[R0H1T]

2 stack hi=Half bandwidth.

Yes I saw that & hence the :\ cause I wasn't sure btw still doesn't make sense why they can't stack 2GB cubes x4, unless there's a technical limitation, also shouldn't 8GB x8 cubes then have 2Tbps bandwidth provided that I/O isn't restricted to a width of 4096bit :hmm:

 

[Hitman928]

Shintai, is there a source other than WCCFTECH for that table?

 

[ShintaiDK]

Yes I saw that & hence the :\ cause I wasn't sure btw still doesn't make sense why they can't stack 2GB cubes x4, unless there's a technical limitation, also shouldn't 8GB x8 cubes then have 2Tbps bandwidth provided that I/O isn't restricted to a width of 4096bit :hmm:

If the memory controller PNY on the stack had 2048bit instead of 1024bit bit and 16 channels instead of 8, yes 🙂

 

[MrTeal]

2 stack hi=Half bandwidth.

Never a serious moment with you.

That chart is for HBM1. Do you have one showing HBM2 is only 512-bit with a 2-Hi stack? It seems like you should still have a halving of BW for a 3mKGSD due to only having a 256-bit interface to each die, but skhynix lists it as being full bandwidth.

 

[maddie]

2 stack hi=Half bandwidth.

Never a serious moment with you.

Posting a Wccftech made table for HBM as proof. Your extreme bias continues to mislead you into imaginary territory.

What a joke.

Here is some better info so you can learn something. Please try to be better.


"JEDEC Solid State Technology Association, the global leader in the development of standards for the microelectronics industry, today announced the publication of an update to JESD235 High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) DRAM standard. HBM DRAM is used in Graphics, High Performance Computing, Server, Networking and Client applications where peak bandwidth, bandwidth per watt, and capacity per area are valued metrics to a solution’s success in the market. The standard was developed and updated with support from leading GPU and CPU developers to extend the system bandwidth growth curve beyond levels supported by traditional discrete packaged memory. JESD235A is available for free download from the JEDEC website.

JESD235A leverages Wide I/O and TSV technologies to support up to 8 GB per device at speeds up to 256 GB/s. This bandwidth is delivered across a 1024-bit wide device interface that is divided into 8 independent channels on each DRAM stack. The standard supports 2-high, 4-high and 8-high TSV stacks of DRAM at full bandwidth to allow systems flexibility on capacity requirements from 1 GB – 8 GB per stack.


Additional improvements in the recent update include a new pseudo channel architecture to improve effective bandwidth, and clarifications and enhancements to the test features. JESD235A also defines a new feature to alert controllers when DRAM temperatures have exceeded a level considered acceptable for reliable operation so that the controller can take appropriate steps to return the system to normal operation.


“GPUs and CPUs continue to drive demand for more memory bandwidth and capacity, amid increasing display resolutions and the growth in computing datasets. HBM provides a compelling solution to reduce the IO power and memory footprint for our most demanding applications,” said Barry Wagner, JEDEC HBM Task Group Chairman.

 

[moonbogg]

I don't think the $7-800 range is common for a GPU. I think it will either be around $650 or $1,000. $800 sort of floats around in no man's land. Its too close to the $650 priced cards and also too close to the $1k priced cards.
I think it would get slaughtered in terms of price/perf if it was $800. Most people would rather buy something in the $5-600 range or go crazy with the full $1k Titan.

Full Vega will cost $650.00. I know this. I know it because I'm Bogg.

 

[guskline]

I don't think the $7-800 range is common for a GPU. I think it will either be around $650 or $1,000. $800 sort of floats around in no man's land. Its too close to the $650 priced cards and also too close to the $1k priced cards.
I think it would get slaughtered in terms of price/perf if it was $800. Most people would rather buy something in the $5-600 range or go crazy with the full $1k Titan.

Full Vega will cost $650.00. I know this. I know it because I'm Bogg.

Finally, some sanity has come to this thread, ALL HAIL BOGG😀😀😀:thumbsup:

 

[antihelten]

I don't think the $7-800 range is common for a GPU. I think it will either be around $650 or $1,000. $800 sort of floats around in no man's land. Its too close to the $650 priced cards and also too close to the $1k priced cards.
I think it would get slaughtered in terms of price/perf if it was $800. Most people would rather buy something in the $5-600 range or go crazy with the full $1k Titan.

Full Vega will cost $650.00. I know this. I know it because I'm Bogg.

Whether full Vega 10 sells for $650 or $550 basically comes down to die size imho.

Personally I expect Polaris 10 to arrive at $250 and $350 for the two top SKUs. This would make sense since it's same same as what Pitcairn originally launched for and Polaris 10 appears to be a 14nm replacement for Pitcairn (232mm2 vs 221mm2).

If Vega 10 has a die size of 300-350mm2 then it would be a 14nm replacement for Tahiti and thus most likely $550. If the die size is 400-450mm2 then it would be a replacement for Hawaii and as such probably around $650. Hawaii launched for $550 of course, but it would have almost certainly launched at $650 or more if it had been launched at the same time as Tahiti.

 

[Kenmitch]

Well....I fed all the known data and facts into my super uber powerful future predicting guessermaster 3000 and after 26hrs it spit out the following price points.

$529.99
$599.99
$649.99
$699.99

I was kind of suprised it predicted 4 offerings.

Silly guessermaster 3000 doesn't factor in rebates and disclaimer states may or not include price after rebate....Ugh

Data on release date is still crunching currently. Looks to be estimated eta of 1 days 16hrs 17min left as I typed this.

Update: My chinglish is rusty it looks like. It seems to be sticking with 1/16/17 it looks like. Mixed up day/hrs/min with year/month/day....Next time I'm not getting a imported one.

 

[tential]

Well....I fed all the known data and facts into my super uber powerful future predicting guessermaster 3000 and after 26hrs it spit out the following price points.

$529.99
$599.99
$649.99
$699.99

I was kind of suprised it predicted 4 offerings.

Silly guessermaster 3000 doesn't factor in rebates and disclaimer states may or not include price after rebate....Ugh

Data on release date is still crunching currently. Looks to be estimated eta of 1 days 16hrs 17min left as I typed this.

Vega comes out after Big Pascal so any price over $650 without a significant performance improvement over Big Pascal will just not do. So I'm guessing either it's $650, or Vega is far faster than Pascal (So unlikely) and it costs a LOT.

AMD overprices when they have the performance crown.

 

[maddie]

Vega comes out after Big Pascal so any price over $650 without a significant performance improvement over Big Pascal will just not do. So I'm guessing either it's $650, or Vega is far faster than Pascal (So unlikely) and it costs a LOT.

AMD overprices when they have the performance crown.

Is this true?
I thought that professional customers would start to get ~ $5K GP100 early next yr, not gamers.

 

[MrTeal]

Vega comes out after Big Pascal so any price over $650 without a significant performance improvement over Big Pascal will just not do. So I'm guessing either it's $650, or Vega is far faster than Pascal (So unlikely) and it costs a LOT.

AMD overprices when they have the performance crown.

nVidia (AFAIK) never claimed that they would have a GPU based on GP100 available in January 2017, just that P100 systems from their partners would be shipping then. I think it's a little premature to say that Vega will be coming out after big Pascal considering we don't know when either of them will be available at this point.

 

[RussianSensation]

Why would AMD release a newer, faster gpu with significantly more ram for the same price?

Yes, because this happened every generation for ATI/AMD for the last 2 decades or so. By the time Vega 10 comes out, we should have Fury X level of performance at $399. By definition that means there will be cards priced at $549-$699 that are faster than Fury X. It's too early to estimate Vega 10's price but I'd guess at minimum $649 for the flagship card given where AMD priced Fury X and their desire to move away from the budget brand image. Normally though we had a 2nd tier AMD card deliver most of the performance of the flagship for a much cheaper price. This happened with HD5850 vs. 5870, 6950 vs. 6970, 7950 vs. 7970 and R9 290 vs. 290X. Fiji is the 1st generation where this isn't really true. Market prices of Fury and Fury X have continued to be only about $100 apart. The AIO CLC on the Fury X alone is worth $50 imo for those going CF with 2 flagship cards.

I'd love for AMD to release a 250-280W Vega 10 with an AIO CLC pushed to the max. If they do that, and the card is competitive with Big Pascal, $649-699 is justifiable. However, if Pascal and Vega 10 are similar in performance stock vs. stock, but Pascal has 20-25% extra overclocking headroom (980Ti vs. Fury X situation), I think AMD needs to be more aggressive with their price -- $549 in that case. Basically, without knowing where Vega 10's competition lands, it's impossible to say if $549-$699 is a reasonable price for it but I'd assume it will cost at least $549. I mean chances are GP104 1080 will cost $549 or more so I can't see Vega 10 priced lower than that.