The 970 loses out noticeably on efficiency to the full fat 980.
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/MSI/GTX_970_Gaming/28.html Color me unimpressed if all GCN 1.3 can do is match a less efficient and castrated GM204 GTX970 with their highly, highly touted HBM.
I know you are a smart guy so you surely understand that GPU vs. GPU perf/watt is completely different than System 1 (GTX980) vs. System 2 (390X) perf/watt in games.
i7 4770+ 970 = 256W (Bioshock infinite) / 279W (Metro LL) / 267W (TR) = avg.
267W
Let's just go nuts here and say an i7 4770 + 390X will use 400W. We get 50% higher power usage and possibly 45-50% more performance. Seems awesome to me. If we just compare perf/watt on a card to card basis, you'll expect a 300W card to be 2x faster than a 150W card, which is just wishful thinking as you know that's not how it works.
You guys need to stop exclusively using GPU 1 vs. GPU 2 perf/watt metrics as some ultimate benchmark of efficiency since that's primarily good for engineers, comparing efficiency of GPU
architectures and giving us a perspective of top performance in TDP constrained environments (laptops). As far as desktop gaming goes,
Perf/watt of the overall system in games is BY FAR the more important/relevant metric for a gamer since that's what we actually see in games. It's not like I can just game on a 980 all by itself, can I?
As far as your example of a 980 goes, MSI Gaming 980 peaks at
205W, Gigabyte G1 980 peaks at
204W. There are exceptions like the Asus Strix that peaks at
174W. But let's just go with it anyway and say a 390X will use 300W or 125W more than the Asus Strix 980. Guess what even if a 390X is only 20% faster and costs $650, already almost no one brand agnostic will even look twice at a $550 980. That's because the flagship market has always been about performance first. What are the chances that someone who is legitimately looking to get flagship GM200/390X cards for $600+ doesn't have a $50 550W PSU? Almost 0.
Even if 970/980 beat 390/390X on a GPU perf/watt basis, it makes no difference for flagship gaming except for NV's marketing department, NV faithful and the uninformed average consumers who skip AMD anyway. As long as 390/390X are at least 15% faster than a 980 and aren't priced at some ludicrous amount, a $550 980 will be irrelevant in the eyes of brand agnostic PC gamers. NV will need to drop 980's price even if 390 uses 125W more power if 390 series' performance is actually good. I mean warrantied AIO CLC alone is easily $50 in the marketplace. Even if 390X was just 10% faster than a 980 at $599 with AIO CLC it would already make brand agnostic gamers pick the 390X. As you can see I basically put the 980 in the best light possible in my comparison but chances are 390X will be > 10% faster. Why? 980's performance advantage over the 290X keeps getting smaller and smaller:
10% more at 1440P
8% at 4K
It's pretty much a 99.9% done deal that 390X will mop the floor with a $550 980. If I were a 980 owner I would be dumping it for sure June 2015 at the latest. This is going to be a repeat of $650 780 --> $399 R9 290. Obviously NV will release GM200 so I am not even remotely worried about them but we are less than 6 months away until 980 is officially mid-range.