US Stock Market - I locked in 30% for the year. Im out for now and in 5% rate cash.

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FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,045
2,436
126
Bought VWUSX for $16.82 on 07/06/06, sold for $17.11 on 09/01/06 and transferred funds back to VEXMX @ $35.80.


2003 Return: 27.397
2004 Return: 17.588
2005 Return: 19.583

As of 11/27/06: +29.575% :)


Good luck everybody!


2006 History:


Owned VEXMX as of 12/31/05. Value per share = $34.26

4/24/2006 I sold VEXMX 37.83 on 04/24/06. VEXMX is MIDCAP BLEND, based on the Wilshire 4500 completion index, similar to S&P 400 midcap. I didnt call the top (no one really can). But I saved my bacon!!

05/15/06 Prediction: I think we hit a 10% selloff before its over. *REACHED 06/13/06*

07/06/06 Buying the dip, back in the market, contrary to usual October entry. Bought VWUSX for $16.82 on 07/06/06.

09/01/06 Sold VWUSX for $17.11 and bought VEXMX @ $35.80.

11/27/06 Sold VEXMX for $38.42
 
sao123

sao123

Lifer
May 27, 2002
12,653
205
106
Originally posted by: Accipiter22
what are you guys talking about?? I have 500 dollars what can i do to make it into 1,000??
Click to expand...

I to you from Pennsyltucky.
I must sekure $500 US Dolars to releese my concubine from prison. If you kould make unto me a loan, I would gladly repay you double in due time.
Please help before my childs should die to death from starvation.
The Original Nigerian Scammer




 
A

arcas

Platinum Member
Apr 10, 2001
2,155
2
0
This burst was largely fueled by shortsighted investors and those in denial. Investors are spooging themselves because of hints that the Fed might be temporarily through with rate hikes but they're largely ignoring the effects of energy on the economy. $3/gallon or $3.50/gallon gasoline -will- have an slowing effect on the economy from the bottom up. We saw it briefly last year after the hurricanes and we're going to see it again within the next month or two. I look for retailers like Walmart to begin issuing profit warnings as low-to-middle-class consumers start cutting back (if they haven't already).

 
T

Taggart

Diamond Member
Apr 23, 2001
4,384
0
0
What do you guys think of Bausch & Lomb (BOL)? It's down 50% since the problems started. Good buy?
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,045
2,436
126
Originally posted by: arcas
This burst was largely fueled by shortsighted investors and those in denial. Investors are spooging themselves because of hints that the Fed might be temporarily through with rate hikes but they're largely ignoring the effects of energy on the economy. $3/gallon or $3.50/gallon gasoline -will- have an slowing effect on the economy from the bottom up. We saw it briefly last year after the hurricanes and we're going to see it again within the next month or two. I look for retailers like Walmart to begin issuing profit warnings as low-to-middle-class consumers start cutting back (if they haven't already).
Click to expand...

But yet weve had high oil and gas for over a year now. The only industries to have really suferred were airlines and trucking. High oil and gas is here to stay now that any Joe Blow engineer type (read dime a dozen) can invest in oil futures. Unemployment is the lowest in recent American history and we are doing quite fine, thank you.

Now, Im up 17% since 10/05 and do plan to lock in gains in May, as the usual summer sell off followed by usual October plunge occurr (notice I bought last Oct).

Ive made 27.5%,17.5% and 19.5% the last three years buying and selling VEXMX (including prof sharing contributions). Unfortunately Vanguard has implemented a 60 day restriction on going back in the same fund, so if your out, you might miss out.

I make a living following rates and I think the Fed stops @5% for awhile, as confirmed by recent comments from a voting member of the rate committee. See also http://www.federalreserve.gov
 
G

gigapet

Lifer
Aug 9, 2001
10,005
0
76
Originally posted by: Accipiter22
what are you guys talking about?? I have 500 dollars what can i do to make it into 1,000??
Click to expand...

your best odds are going and throwing it all down on red in roulette
 
R

rufruf44

Platinum Member
May 8, 2001
2,002
0
0
Originally posted by: dullard

That said, yesterday sucked bigtime for many of us. Stocks going up well before retirement = much less retirement money. :(
Click to expand...

Whaddya mean by that? :confused: Less chances to buy it at a lower price?
 
dullard

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,635
4,147
126
Originally posted by: rufruf44
Whaddya mean by that? :confused: Less chances to buy it at a lower price?
Click to expand...
It is quite simple. If the stock market plunges now, anyone on a plan that purchases stock at a fixed amount regularly (think Simple IRA, 401k, etc) will therefore buy lots and lots of stock for that fixed amount of money. Then when the stock market goes back up, those people suddenly are very wealthy.

If instead the stock market goes up initially, they buy very little stock with that same fixed amount of money and they retire with very little.

When you are far from retirement, stocks going up is the worst thing that can happen. Of course the opposite is true once you do retire. You want the stock market to be high and going higher so when you sell you get more money. Since ATOT is filled with posters who are far from retirement, the vast majority of us on ATOT should root for the stock market to plunge. So, yes, we want a great chance to buy at a low price.
 
A

Accipiter22

Banned
Feb 11, 2005
7,942
2
0
Originally posted by: sao123
Originally posted by: Accipiter22
what are you guys talking about?? I have 500 dollars what can i do to make it into 1,000??
Click to expand...

I to you from Pennsyltucky.
I must sekure $500 US Dolars to releese my concubine from prison. If you kould make unto me a loan, I would gladly repay you double in due time.
Please help before my childs should die to death from starvation.
The Original Nigerian Scammer
Click to expand...

hahahahha
 
C

crownjules

Diamond Member
Jul 7, 2005
4,858
0
76
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: rufruf44
Whaddya mean by that? :confused: Less chances to buy it at a lower price?
Click to expand...
It is quite simple. If the stock market plunges now, anyone on a plan that purchases stock at a fixed amount regularly (think Simple IRA, 401k, etc) will therefore buy lots and lots of stock for that fixed amount of money. Then when the stock market goes back up, those people suddenly are very wealthy.

If instead the stock market goes up initially, they buy very little stock with that same fixed amount of money and they retire with very little.

When you are far from retirement, stocks going up is the worst thing that can happen. Of course the opposite is true once you do retire. You want the stock market to be high and going higher so when you sell you get more money. Since ATOT is filled with posters who are far from retirement, the vast majority of us on ATOT should root for the stock market to plunge. So, yes, we want a great chance to buy at a low price.
Click to expand...

The market will plunge and rise many times before you retire. While the general trend of the market is upward, it goes through recessions and pullbacks all the time. It's cyclical and nothing you can do about it other than to learn how to maximize your profits during those ups and downs.

 
dullard

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,635
4,147
126
Originally posted by: crownjules
The market will plunge and rise many times before you retire. While the general trend of the market is upward, it goes through recessions and pullbacks all the time. It's cyclical and nothing you can do about it other than to learn how to maximize your profits during those ups and downs.
Click to expand...
Of course there is nothing you can do about it. But you should be happy during the downs and sad during the ups. For some reason, people tend to feel the opposite, they feel happy when the stock market goes up and they are hurt financially.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,045
2,436
126
Originally posted by: crownjules
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: rufruf44
Whaddya mean by that? :confused: Less chances to buy it at a lower price?
Click to expand...
It is quite simple. If the stock market plunges now, anyone on a plan that purchases stock at a fixed amount regularly (think Simple IRA, 401k, etc) will therefore buy lots and lots of stock for that fixed amount of money. Then when the stock market goes back up, those people suddenly are very wealthy.

If instead the stock market goes up initially, they buy very little stock with that same fixed amount of money and they retire with very little.

When you are far from retirement, stocks going up is the worst thing that can happen. Of course the opposite is true once you do retire. You want the stock market to be high and going higher so when you sell you get more money. Since ATOT is filled with posters who are far from retirement, the vast majority of us on ATOT should root for the stock market to plunge. So, yes, we want a great chance to buy at a low price.
Click to expand...

The market will plunge and rise many times before you retire. While the general trend of the market is upward, it goes through recessions and pullbacks all the time. It's cyclical and nothing you can do about it other than to learn how to maximize your profits during those ups and downs.
Click to expand...

Im 30 years from retirement. While I like to take a stab at market timing (sell in May and take a holiday, wait for the summer selloff and October plunge then buy again for the holiday rallies, repeat sell next May if January effect confirms), these are rules of thumb, but not "the rule".

As for dullard, dollar cost averaging over his working career is the way to go. And if you think you need to rebalance your asset allocations, do so.
 
T

Taggart

Diamond Member
Apr 23, 2001
4,384
0
0
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: crownjules
The market will plunge and rise many times before you retire. While the general trend of the market is upward, it goes through recessions and pullbacks all the time. It's cyclical and nothing you can do about it other than to learn how to maximize your profits during those ups and downs.
Click to expand...
Of course there is nothing you can do about it. But you should be happy during the downs and sad during the ups. For some reason, people tend to feel the opposite, they feel happy when the stock market goes up and they are hurt financially.
Click to expand...

:thumbsup:
 
C

crownjules

Diamond Member
Jul 7, 2005
4,858
0
76
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: crownjules
The market will plunge and rise many times before you retire. While the general trend of the market is upward, it goes through recessions and pullbacks all the time. It's cyclical and nothing you can do about it other than to learn how to maximize your profits during those ups and downs.
Click to expand...
Of course there is nothing you can do about it. But you should be happy during the downs and sad during the ups. For some reason, people tend to feel the opposite, they feel happy when the stock market goes up and they are hurt financially.
Click to expand...

Because if the stock market never went up, my investments at those lows would never net me money.
 
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