Yes, Al, but A and P. Yes, I suppose "contrived facts" is a bit of a red herring on my part.
Let's start with Afghanistan. Outside of making 30 years of policy mistakes, we haven't done badly there. Of course, it's the same pit that it was before we invaded it. But now it's our pit. With respect to Afghanistan, unless we're willing to take the time and resources to make some fundamental changes in the country -- and I assure you, we are not so prepared -- we're just spitting in the wind. There will be no meaningful change in Afghanistan unless you consider replacing warlord B with warlord C a significant change.
With respect to Pakistan, now there's a place where we can really do some damage. This is an extremely unstable country hanging on to a semblence of "democracy" by its fingers. We've managed to piss off the entire Muslim world in general -- so now we're going to operate in Pakistan and piss them off in particular. It might happen, Mushareff has little control of the outlying districts. I could envision some type of bargain where we go in and kick over the bees nest for him. But, to what end?
Seriously, Al. Look at the invasion of A and the invasion of I. The took literally months of preparation to mount. Ok, this is supposed to be a "spring" offensive. This is almost February. We'd have to start now. There is no way we can set up this kind of opperation without alerting us and them. It ain't gonna happen in spring.
By the way, I wish I could look up who posted that original nonsense about "major terrorist attack in U.S. before mid-February.
In the old testament, the were to beat their swords into plowshares. We beat ours into trumpets. The news industry needed a story.