US 3rd quarter GDP revised up to 5% - best in 11 years.

[fskimospy]

I'd be curious how it would look if we compiled the numbers using the methodology they used in either the 1970s or 1980s.

You could most certainly do that if you wanted to, but why anyone would think that methods designed to capture economic activity in the 1970's would accurately capture economic activity in 2014 is beyond me. Seems foolish and wasteful.

 

[Zaap]

Robots don't spend their money, they store it in their memory banks.

You're doomed, people!

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Wait, why in the world should we not include R&D as investment? That's incredibly obviously an investment. Creates new technologies, creates new industries, creates better educated workers...

R&D is research, its not an accomplishment.

Do you know how many times you have to fail before it makes something useful? Why would you count all the times you paid for failures in a statistic of how many times you are successful? It doesn't make logical sense to include it.

The number of stupid shit experiments you will see in an R&D budget if you worked in management to see such information...

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Remember this? We had a thread on this some time back:

Thanks for posting, that pretty much explains this to the T.

 

[Thebobo]

Fear not, the repubs take over the Congress in a few weeks, they'll get everything back to shit in no time.

I cant wait!

 

[Knowing]

With the future looking so bright, perhaps it's time to raise the emergency low prime rate and stop cornholing everyone's savings. Oh wait... never mind.

 

[berzerker60]

R&D is research, its not an accomplishment.

Do you know how many times you have to fail before it makes something useful? Why would you count all the times you paid for failures in a statistic of how many times you are successful? It doesn't make logical sense to include it.

The number of stupid shit experiments you will see in an R&D budget if you worked in management to see such information...

It's still productive. Research produces knowledge (ie intellectual property). Not all of that knowledge is marketable, but some of it is VERY valuable. America's biggest exports, by far, are types of intellectual property. Do you think we should only count profitable/successful IP somehow? Is a stock less of an investment if it does poorly? Is building a new factory not an investment if it turns out not to be profitable? What should we do, go look up the market results of every research activity in America each quarter and decide if it was successful by some metric and should be counted? Or just count the entire effort and recognize that investments carry risk?

 

[fskimospy]

With the future looking so bright, perhaps it's time to raise the emergency low prime rate and stop cornholing everyone's savings. Oh wait... never mind.

Definitely not time to do that, no. That would be extremely silly. Why would we want to raise the rate when inflation is low?

 

[ivwshane]

What's your point?

If GDP is normally calculated one way and that way has been changed then comparing past GDP numbers to the current numbers would be an apple to oranges comparison. It's the same argument for not using U6 and comparing it to the U3 unemployment number.

 

[Matt1970]

Thanks, Obama.
Time to change the course.

You mean the 2009 Stimulus is finally working? Remember, by you guys own admission Obama hasn't been able to do anything thanks to the repubs, so this is just the economy recovering on it's own, as it always does.

 

[fskimospy]

If GDP is normally calculated one way and that way has been changed then comparing past GDP numbers to the current numbers would be an apple to oranges comparison. It's the same argument for not using U6 and comparing it to the U3 unemployment number.

This isn't accurate, previous GDP numbers were revised under the new assumptions when calculating growth.

 

[ElFenix]

You mean the 2009 Stimulus is finally working? Remember, by you guys own admission Obama hasn't been able to do anything thanks to the repubs, so this is just the economy recovering on it's own, as it always does.

the 2009 stimulus kept the US better off than other countries that didn't do similar measures. so it already worked. without republican fiscal-policy-at-random demands the economy would have recovered years ago and we'd be a good bit ahead of where we are now.

 

[BoberFett]

Or a job creator! Healthier workers => more profits and less spent on health care => more jobs in industries that aren't making are nation morbidly obese

You could even say those potato chips are like little job abortions. Require every chip-eater to get a trans-esophogal exam and explanation by his doctor about what his chip-eating means for American health care costs.

Logic fail. Healthier people means less need for health care meaning fewer health care jobs. Unhealthy processed food create jobs on both ends.

 

[Matt1970]

the 2009 stimulus kept the US better off than other countries that didn't do similar measures. so it already worked. without republican fiscal-policy-at-random demands the economy would have recovered years ago and we'd be a good bit ahead of where we are now.

Our recovery had little to do with the stimulus but you just keep on believing that. Here is just a short list of what the right and the left have claimed out policy and effects on the economy, none of which turned out to be true.

The Stimulus will keep unemployment below 8%.
The sequestration will be devastating to the economy.
Obamacare will be devastating to the economy.
Tax hikes on the upper class will be devastating to the economy.

 

[michal1980]

If the recovery continues and we start to see higher inflation and continuing lower employment, that is when we need to begin to implement austerity, yes. Not yet, but if trends continue then in the not too distant future.

Government cuts are always in the future with you.

 

[ivwshane]

This isn't accurate, previous GDP numbers were revised under the new assumptions when calculating growth.

Average GDP growth (through our history) has been what? 3-4%? With the new calculation what is that average?

 

[ivwshane]

Our recovery had little to do with the stimulus but you just keep on believing that. Here is just a short list of what the right and the left have claimed out policy and effects on the economy, none of which turned out to be true.

The Stimulus will keep unemployment below 8%.
The sequestration will be devastating to the economy.
Obamacare will be devastating to the economy.
Tax hikes on the upper class will be devastating to the economy.

So can you explain the difference in recovery from US and the other countries?

 

[fskimospy]

Average GDP growth (through our history) has been what? 3-4%? With the new calculation what is that average?

Probably about the same, although I would have to go back and look. (R&D spending used to be a much smaller portion of GDP)

Regardless, we're looking at year-on-year growth rates here.

 

[ivwshane]

Probably about the same, although I would have to go back and look. (R&D spending used to be a much smaller portion of GDP)

Regardless, we're looking at year-on-year growth rates here.

I know but this change in calculation happened last year and I'm trying to get a better idea of the significance of this number.

Is R&D pretty much just another tax break for corporations anyway?

 

[Spungo]

Seems the US economy is doing much better than the rest of the world. Does this finally start to trickle down to the average person on the street or does it simply kick the FED into raising rates and doing nothing for the average Joe?

lol raise interest rates. They'll never do that. The national debt grew by more than 1 trillion dollars last year, and that's when interest rates are pinned as close to zero as possible. What do you think happens if interest rates rose to 5%?

Bernanke said interest rates will likely not normalize during his life time. He's probably right.

 

[fskimospy]

lol raise interest rates. They'll never do that. The national debt grew by more than 1 trillion dollars last year, and that's when interest rates are pinned as close to zero as possible. What do you think happens if interest rates rose to 5%?

Bernanke said interest rates will likely not normalize during his life time. He's probably right.

Of course they will raise interest rates when inflation rises.

I'll put "never raising interest rates" in the vault of more wrong predictions to check up on.

 

[TreVader]

On a purely economic level, Obama has done a stellar job. I think it's hard to argue otherwise.

 

[berzerker60]

Logic fail. Healthier people means less need for health care meaning fewer health care jobs. Unhealthy processed food create jobs on both ends.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

 

[Spungo]

On a purely economic level, Obama has done a stellar job. I think it's hard to argue otherwise.

I agree completely. We should immediately end food stamps. The people who don't have jobs simply don't want jobs.

 

[shira]

I agree completely. We should immediately end food stamps. The people who don't have jobs simply don't want jobs.

Because the only possible definition of "a good job" when a President enters office during the worst economic downturn in 81 years is zero unemployment by the middle of his second term? Merely seeing the economy drastically improve during those six years isn't sufficient to earn that praise?

Kind of like saying that a new treatment that extends the average life expectancy of stage 4 melanoma patients to five years (from about six weeks) is a failure because the treatment doesn't completely cure patients.