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Unemployment... what do you expect?

Dulanic

Dulanic

Diamond Member
So I figured let's start tracking how high unemployment goes. I think unemployment spikes to 8-10% by EoY minimum. Of course this is subject to change based on how fast we get over this. I think underemployed will be much much higher at this point than unemployed. Bye bye discretionary spending.

My wife was just furloughed for 3 months due to this as she works in the trade show industry which was immediately impacted by this faster than anyone else IMO. This is a company /w a US base of 10K+ that if furloughing all employees or cutting pay across the board 100% for those they aren't furloughed. I'm sure hers isn't the last.

Forbes has a estimate of a overall US job reduction impact of 18% of the US workforce so far to date. I think 8-10% may end up being low....

www.forbes.com

Coronavirus Layoffs: Boeing Lays Off 6,770 Workers Amid Pandemic

The national crisis, spurred by the spread of coronavirus, has impacted nearly every industry.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Big number: 18%. That’s how many Americans say they’ve had their jobs cut or hours reduced since the coronavirus crisis hit, according to a poll conducted by NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist on March 13 and 14.
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It depends how long this lock down lasts. At the very least we will see a recession. Cant get around that imo. We were due and some economic indicators it was coming anyways. Now if this thing lasts on for months. I dread to think how bad this will look. Worst case is legit depression\war time economy. Which would include rationing of vital supplies as food supply chains fail.

Right now with a lot of states essentially shutting down the restaurant industry. That is going to show massive losses of jobs immediately. I would not be shocked if we see 1-2 million jobs lost in under a month.
 
Genx87 said:
It depends how long this lock down lasts. At the very least we will see a recession. Cant get around that imo. We were due and some economic indicators it was coming anyways. Now if this thing lasts on for months. I dread to think how bad this will look. Worst case is legit depression\war time economy. Which would include rationing of vital supplies as food supply chains fail.

Right now with a lot of states essentially shutting down the restaurant industry. That is going to show massive losses of jobs immediately. I would not be shocked if we see 1-2 million jobs lost in under a month.
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Yep, servers across the country are getting laid off as we speak.
 
Dulanic said:
Marriot just announced it will furlough tens of thousands.
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Wow, everyone from the airlines to the casino's have all started dialog about a "bailout", I can't imagine the auto industry will be far behind, people, even when they have the $$ often put off big-ticket purchases during uneven economic times. I don't think it's possible to bailout everyone though.
 
brycejones said:
From what the airlines are asking for we have another round of privatizing profits and socializing the losses. The airlines have made enough money over the last several years to be able to ride this out. They spent it pumping up their share prices through buybacks.
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So much this
 
Wow! Marriot is fighting its employees it furloughed filing for unemployment AND they cut their insurance.

At least my wife's company is keeping and paying their health insurance while furloughed and isn't fighting their unemployment claims.

I hope this screws Marriott's image and costs them big.
 
$1 trillion bail outs, every week, for banks. With daily billions, everyday.

Hundreds of billions for companies like airlines, Amazon, hotels, etc.

The common people; get fucked.
 
ShookKnight said:
$1 trillion bail outs, every week, for banks. With daily billions, everyday.

Hundreds of billions for companies like airlines, Amazon, hotels, etc.

The common people; get fucked.
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Republicans were behind exclusions for sick leave. Only companies <500 and <50 eligible for a waiver as well.

McDonalds screws its workers
 
In excess of 10% but short of 20%, probably.

I suspect that Mnuchin told the senate GOP 20% to slap them awake...which they mostly seem to be now.
 
K1052 said:
In excess of 10% but short of 20%, probably.

I suspect that Mnuchin told the senate GOP 20% to slap them awake...which they mostly seem to be now.
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Unless your name is rand paul, then you need to attach unrelated shit to the bill. KY picks the finest.
 
brycejones said:
From what the airlines are asking for we have another round of privatizing profits and socializing the losses. The airlines have made enough money over the last several years to be able to ride this out. They spent it pumping up their share prices through buybacks.
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Won't someone please think of the multi-billionaires! If this keeps up they will have to give up..oh wait, no they won't. They will still have billions.
 
I would really like to know what the end game of closing everything is going to be. If we are buying time to prepare for a couple months, ok. If we are going to shut down until there is a vaccine, I think we'll be worse off than if we just let it run the course.

It'd really be nice if it appeared like there was an actual fucking plan.
 
Zorba said:
I would really like to know what the end game of closing everything is going to be. If we are buying time to prepare for a couple months, ok. If we are going to shut down until there is a vaccine, I think we'll be worse off than if we just let it run the course.

It'd really be nice if it appeared like there was an actual fucking plan.
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Surely you jest. With Trump & the GOP in charge, there is no plan other than for the investor class to get liquid & hoard the money. The whole thing will lock up completely w/o strong intervention by the FRB.

www.marketwatch.com

Wall Street fears ‘flashbacks to 2008’ with forced selling in $9 trillion U.S. corporate bond market

After the most volatile week on Wall Street since the 2008 financial crisis as the coronavirus epidemic began to shut down swaths of the U.S. economy, the...
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com

Forced selling is already happening or the FRB wouldn't be in the middle of it. The little people? If God didn't intend for them to get fucked he wouldn't have made it so easy.
 
Zorba said:
I would really like to know what the end game of closing everything is going to be. If we are buying time to prepare for a couple months, ok. If we are going to shut down until there is a vaccine, I think we'll be worse off than if we just let it run the course.

It'd really be nice if it appeared like there was an actual fucking plan.
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News from HK is coming out that a significant percentage (exact number is unclear at the moment) of those who recover end up with 20-30% reduced lung capacity. The virus has potential to permanently damage your lungs and liver even if you survive. Are you personally willing to take the risk of being out of breath every time you have to take a brisk walk for the rest of your life just so that "we'll be worse off than if we just let it run the course"? Do you think others will share your opinion?
 
Zorba said:
I would really like to know what the end game of closing everything is going to be. If we are buying time to prepare for a couple months, ok. If we are going to shut down until there is a vaccine, I think we'll be worse off than if we just let it run the course.

It'd really be nice if it appeared like there was an actual fucking plan.
Click to expand...

We're not going to be shut down until there is a vaccine. Probably a couple months to get the mass infections under control. Chunks of the economy will start coming back with protools to protect public health.

Letting this thing run is not at all an option.
 
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