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Unemployment falls to 7.8% (but only 114,000 job added?)

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buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
As was pointed out to me, the OP states that MORE people were in the job market, not less.
When the U3 goes down and U6 doesn't either workforce shrank or a large portion of the jobs added are part time or jobs where the worker is under employed.
 

piasabird

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
17,183
60
91
So how many of these new jobs were h1b visa jobs? I just saw a report that Microsoft was asking congress for more h1b visas.
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
9,157
1,301
126
What policies that Bush enacted caused the meltdown?
Wow. Where have u been hiding?

I feel a little like Obama at the debate.
Where does one start.....
Now I understand that look on the presidents face.
And the underlining reaction. Why bother....
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,426
8,404
136
Wow. Where have u been hiding?

I feel a little like Obama at the debate.
Where does one start.....
Now I understand that look on the presidents face.
And the underlining reaction. Why bother....
Don't bother, it will just annoy you.
 

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
85
91
Wow. Where have u been hiding?

I feel a little like Obama at the debate.
Where does one start.....
Now I understand that look on the presidents face.
And the underlining reaction. Why bother....
I sure wish you would bother. Oh well.
 

the DRIZZLE

Platinum Member
Sep 6, 2007
2,955
0
76
I think the 800k number is the actual raw number, based upon corporate payrolls they sample.

But to compare apples to oranges months (most job hiring, I believe, takes place in those spring and summer months when high school and colleges graduate and those graduates enter workforce with real jobs). Other months (July?) I think there is actually very little actual hiring.

So BLS take a monthly snapshot and annualizes the number (SAAR), and does all sorts of seasonal adjustments so you can validly compare say December to July.

Don't understand it in depth, but I think you have to view those numbers more as a rate of acceleration or deceleration basis, on a relative basis, compared to other months.

I think BLS samples are incomplete, so there is lots of guesswork, inference, and fill in the blanks to come up with their number (revisions after the fact presumably reflect more actual data coming into them).
That is incorrect. The two numbers are from two different surveys (businesses and household) and both series are seasonably adjusted. The household survey is far more volatile than the business survey. It is highly likely that the rate will go back up over 8% next month this and month's numbers will have significant negative revisions.
 
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Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,379
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Regardless of how the numbers are being bent this is a major reduction the number people care about most. Obama will tout this. It's a very bad number for Romney.

It was 8.1, right? Now it's 7.8. Bad for Romney. Imagine if it had gone from 8.1 to 8.4? At that point hell I'd start supporting Romney.

Romney hammered away in the debate how important the economy is and that is for darn sure, but if unemployment is coming down that's what people want to hear.
We shall see how that plays out . Obama says how good it is that the numbers went down and Romney hammers I mean Hammers away at the fact 600,000 of those jobs were government . I remember when censes was taken and the big jobs numbers came out . until the job was done that is
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,426
8,404
136
We shall see how that plays out . Obama says how good it is that the numbers went down and Romney hammers I mean Hammers away at the fact 600,000 of those jobs were government . I remember when censes was taken and the big jobs numbers came out . until the job was done that is
Keep fucking that chicken!
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,379
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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,426
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What > Your as bad as this reporter . Welsh states it more than once The news man must agree or he woulkd have contested that fact . You and the reporter have the same problem your both death demons.

http://leanforward.msnbc.com/_news/2012/10/05/14248410-welch-i-have-no-evidence-for-jobs-conspiracy-theory-but-i-dont-take-it-back?lite
Well shit! If Welch said it then it must be true!

Welch: All I can talk about are some of the numbers. We had 600,000 government jobs added in the last 2 months.

The revisions also showed that federal, state and local governments added 63,000 jobs in July and August, compared with earlier estimates that showed losses.
http://news.yahoo.com/us-jobless-rate-falls-7-8-pct-44-123110986--finance.html

At some point your going to ask yourself why you bellieved the lies . Than you will beat yourself over your own stupidity
I think you still have more for that chicken;)
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,261
68
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What > Your as bad as this reporter . Welsh states it more than once The news man must agree or he woulkd have contested that fact . You and the reporter have the same problem your both death demons.

http://leanforward.msnbc.com/_news/2012/10/05/14248410-welch-i-have-no-evidence-for-jobs-conspiracy-theory-but-i-dont-take-it-back?lite
Jack Welch is an overrated republican shill who pretty much sunk GE through the shenanigans of GE Capital. He'll say anything to attention whore for 15min, both for himself and Romney.

He wasn't even GE's best CEO but everybody thinks he's some type of god. Furthermore, his whole "cross calibration" and "fire the bottom 10%" is what is being credited as Microsoft and many company's downfall. It's a shitty way of management.

Ohh and Six Sigma for normal corporate actions can suck it too.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,379
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Jack welsh must be pretty smart last night befor the numbers were out he predicted that the jobless claimes would be 7.9 pretty good . I also said this would happen not more than 3 months ago. This president is a criminal same as many rep. and senators the charge treason against the People of the United States of America
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,426
8,404
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Jack welsh must be pretty smart last night befor the numbers were out he predicted that the jobless claimes would be 7.9 pretty good . I also said this would happen not more than 3 months ago. This president is a criminal same as many rep. and senators the charge treason against the People of the United States of America
You are exactly the type of citizen the political right want! Uneducated, easily fooled and manipulated, and a parrot for their talking points.

Good little righty! You've made them proud!
 

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
0
This election has been great entertainment for me.

The American public is truly seeing the death of the GOP right before our eyes. They are simply crazy buffoons with no grounding in reality whatsoever. The moderates need to take back control of the party and jettison the loonies.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,379
0
0
This election has been great entertainment for me.

The American public is truly seeing the death of the GOP right before our eyes. They are simply crazy buffoons with no grounding in reality whatsoever. The moderates need to take back control of the party and jettison the loonies.
I agree the repulsives are over with. Its what rises from the ashes demons need to fear.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,426
8,404
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I agree the repulsives are over with. Its what rises from the ashes demons need to fear.
Demons? Is that common in the world you live in? The same world where 600,000 government jobs were lost in the last two months? The same world where Romney has given details on his plan for a better America with specifics? Is it the same world where Obama has been a complete failure? Is it the world where you can see the president sitting next to Clint Eastwood where they have a conversation with each other? Is it the same world where the unemployment numbers are manipulated by the president? Is it the same world where Romney cares about the 100%?

Here's a clue man, that's not reality and if you think it is I'd seriously get your head checked, you aren't right in the head and I'm concerned for your health. Just check into the ER where Romney says you will be taken care of;)
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,379
0
0
You are exactly the type of citizen the political right want! Uneducated, easily fooled and manipulated, and a parrot for their talking points.

Good little righty! You've made them proud!
Iam not a righty, a muslim or a christian who follows the roman bible nor lefty defty I am simply as rightious as I know and above all things I know I shall become what I become. What exactly is it that you are . Do you stand behind a gooberment that kills without good conduct if there is any. Agressors are always and will always be agressors. The moral issues. I take offense at the fact man needs to cover his SHAME thus clothing. Only a perverted retard would have such thought . A creature to be killed. I take offense at people claiming things from the earth that are not thiers to take . I take offense to the mindless wondering in a false reality you people seem to live . As long as you keep me safe gooberment treat me as you will . You cann't destroy the World and have 3rdD life.I take ofense at just exactly how narrow minded people are . You look at the poor and say lets help them .. Which is good . You help them by teaching them to Fish not to collect food stamps... Morality on earth is a reality that likely has the rest of the universe in shock. Morality is much much more than the averge person can conceive as it touches every aspect of life and how we interact with it . Its the Bond that holds us. Nature is about to make a choice a choice that may very well change everthing.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
28,426
8,404
136
Iam not a righty, a muslim or a christian who follows the roman bible nor lefty defty I am simply as rightious as I know and above all things I know I shall become what I become. What exactly is it that you are . Do you stand behind a gooberment that kills without good conduct if there is any. Agressors are always and will always be agressors. The moral issues. I take offense at the fact man needs to cover his SHAME thus clothing. Only a perverted retard would have such thought . A creature to be killed. I take offense at people claiming things from the earth that are not thiers to take . I take offense to the mindless wondering in a false reality you people seem to live. As long as you keep me safe gooberment treat me as you will . You cann't destroy the World and have 3rdD life.I take ofense at just exactly how narrow minded people are . You look at the poor and say lets help them .. Which is good . You help them by teaching them to Fish not to collect food stamps... Morality on earth is a reality that likely has the rest of the universe in shock. Morality is much much more than the averge person can conceive as it touches every aspect of life and how we interact with it . Its the Bond that holds us. Nature is about to make a choice a choice that may very well change everthing.
Your choice is apparently ignorance and hypocrisy and you don't seem to be ashamed or even aware of it.

How sad.

I was right though, you do have mental issues, good luck to you;)
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
71
So how many of these new jobs were h1b visa jobs? I just saw a report that Microsoft was asking congress for more h1b visas.
Look at the CNBC video clip I have linked in my sig (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000114536&play=1)

At the end of the that one, Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and who I believe made his fortune in satellite tv, says how salaries for engineers have gone through the roof on the West Coast (but not yet for rest of the country), and that it is a "battle" to get any highly skilled workers because that particular segment of job market is so tight (~4% or less unemployment rate). e. g. the human resources lady in Fox Business clip also linked in my sig says unemployment rate for engineers is 2% (http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/1834541087001/engineering-facing-skills-shortage-in-hiring).

Microsoft probably can't find the engineers and other highly skilled technology workers it needs, so needs to get them from say India. IBM, right now on their website, has over 2500+ job openings for positions across many states in the U. S.: https://jobs3.netmedia1.com/cp/find.ibm.jobs/location/USA/

It is just like Siemens starting an apprenticeship program for factory engineers (http://www.npr.org/2012/07/26/157033600/bypassing-college-dreams-a-different-road-to-work) they pay for community college and have a job waiting at completion of training for individuals in Charlotte, NC community that have been awared those apprenceticeship positions.

Siemens isn't spending 160K per apprenticeship out of the kindness of their heart; they need those workers to grow their business and make more money.

I think the U. S. workforce is something like 110 million people, so even if Microsoft hired 1000 foreign born or educated engineers, it in itself won't move needle on unemployment drastically, especially when big chunks of job losses from The Great Recession were in the housing and construction industries (30% of factory jobs existing around say year 2007 are permanently gone because they have been replaced by automation / robots. Brandeis economist said just as many jobs have been lost to automation as to outsourcing to China. And manufacturing job openings that exist now are more high tech and require computer skills, which unfortunately, some still looking for jobs may lack). Manpower CEO talking about last month's (August BLS report): http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000114255&play=1

And like it or not, from what I've read, temporary / part-time jobs may be becoming a larger and more permanent part of corporations hiring plans, because it allows them to ramp up and ramp down more quickly to changes in demand, especially now where there are still lots of uncertainties out there, both here and abroad...









Morningstar economist Bob Johnson's written summary of the whole week's Economic Data:

- he usually has a video commentary on some economic release on Thursday or Friday of each week, then nice written summary of whole week's economic data on Saturday. We can all turn on the tv and find channel to give us spin we want to hear, but life will go on after November 6, and sometimes you want a more fact based analysis of what these numbers mean for yourself, your family, your friends and neighbors, all of the people and businesses that make up your community and are ultimately your true economic reality, irrespective of what talking heads on tv are trying to convince us of on tv)

"Though the headline job additions in September just barely matched consensus (114,000 jobs added), there was a lot to like in this month's employment report. Besides job growth, both the number of hours worked and the wage per hour went up after a couple of months of stagnation. Average hours ticked up by 0.1 to 34.5 hours while the average hourly wage jumped 0.3%.

The combination of job growth, more hours, and more dollars per hour should drive consumer income figures (http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2263109) September considerably higher than August levels. Those incomes should give consumers the wherewithal for increased spending over the upcoming holiday season. Furthermore, as I surmised last month, job counts for both July and August were revised substantially higher; July was revised up from 141,000 to 181,000 and August from 96,000 to 142,000. These are embarrassingly large revisions relative to the size of the original job growth figures. And these revisions are likely to produce meaningful increases in personal income and perhaps consumption growth for the months of July and August."
"In some good news, government jobs have now broken meaningfully out of their slump. After dropping almost half a million jobs from the beginning of the recession, government employment growth has now been in positive territory for three months in a row (the most recent set of positive employment report revisions were primarily government-related jobs). This month the government contributed about 10,000 jobs. Most of that improvement has been at the state level, where strong sales tax collections are finally beginning to refill state coffers."
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=569733


:thumbsup:
 
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EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,599
5
0
Look at the requirements some of these big companies are putting out for the jobs.

The skill set is not commiserate with the experience or COLA at the $$ offered.

Companies are trying to pay $40-50 for contractors in CA with 10+ years of software experience.

They can import H1B at that rate with 5 years or less.

Imported H1Bs will have the basic skill set to develop, not design software systems.

You look at the Microsoft and IBM Jobs.
Current cutting edge technology. Engineers can not keep up with the stuff coming down the pike and get their own work done. Companies are not jumping to change technology for technology sake; they have been burned in the past.

There may be 200k jobs available, but those trained on such may be only 100k. And 80k are not going to jump ship. Will the 180k be filled by people that can learn this stuff in 3-6 months.

NO.

These jobs have to hit the ground running for the companies needs. They need to sell the consulting services to clients to convince that the new technology is the cats meow. Show how the newest stuff can solve problems faster that yesterdays. Yesterdays engineers are to be considered to be outdated because they can not support the newest glitter
 
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mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
71
Household Survey:

"The monthly jobs report is prepared with raw data collected by Census workers. The workers interview Americans in about 60,000 households or visit them door-to-door.

People are asked whether they're employed and, if so, whether their jobs are full or part time. The Census workers gather other information about the respondents' education, age and gender and ask whether they're self-employed.

Most of the interviews are done in the week that includes the 19th day of the month. The resulting pile of data is transferred securely by Census to BLS about a week before the jobs report is due.

The office suites where the report is prepared and compiled goes on lockdown. Employees can't access the area without a hard pass. Staffers working on a paper copy of the report are expected to keep it under lock and key if they aren't at their desk &#8212; even when they go to lunch.

The security isn't just about keeping the data free of political pressure. The unemployment figures, if leaked early, could improperly move financial markets.

Tom Nardone, a 36-year veteran of the BLS, oversees the report's preparation. The goal, Nardone said, is to make the report as accurate and "apolitical" as possible.

"We strive to be like Joe Friday, just presenting the facts," he said.

A draft of the report is completed by early Wednesday before the Friday when it's released. Several groups of staffers review it. That Wednesday is usually the earliest that the commissioner of the BLS gets involved.

On Thursday afternoon, the report is sent to the White House's Council of Economic Advisors. Krueger provides a copy to the president.

Hilda Solis, Obama's labor secretary, doesn't see the report until around 8 a.m. Friday, a half-hour before its public release.

A week later, Labor releases the raw data on its website. Many academics use the data, which is stripped of all identifying information, for their own research."

http://news.yahoo.com/officials-reject-conspiracies-unemployment-rate-070150404--finance.html

(I believe this is the "Household Survey" set of data that BLS uses to calculate the unemployment rate. Headline number of jobs created (SAAR) is from a different pool of data that BLS also collects (I think sampling of large corporate payrolls (?)
 
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