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Unemployment falls to 7.8% (but only 114,000 job added?)

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
699
126
Edit: Actually, more people are looking for work (didn't read the article before I jumped in and posted it lol). :oops:

More people quit looking for work (or run out of the 2 years of unemployment insurance)? Also, I'm more interested to see what kinds of jobs are being created. Hopefully (doubtful) better middle class jobs that build something instead of "would you like fries with that" jobs.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-jobless-rate-falls-7-8-pct-44-123110986--finance.html

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent last month, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years. The rate fell because more people found work, a trend that could impact the presidential election.

The Labor Department says employers added 114,000 jobs in September. The economy also created 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated. Wages rose in September and more people started looking for work.

The revisions show employers added 146,000 jobs per month from July through September, up from 67,000 in the previous three months. The unemployment rate fell from 8.1 percent in August, matching its level in January 2009 when President Barack Obama took office.

The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.
 
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Ryan

Lifer
Oct 31, 2000
27,518
1
81
Hah - Obama finally delivers when it comes to getting the unemployment rate below 8%. One more empty Romney talking point has just been put to death.
 

nehalem256

Lifer
Apr 13, 2012
15,669
6
0
More people quit looking for work (or run out of the 2 years of unemployment insurance)? Also, I'm more interested to see what kinds of jobs are being created. Hopefully (doubtful) better middle class jobs that build something instead of "would you like fries with that" jobs.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-jobless-rate-falls-7-8-pct-44-123110986--finance.html
The Labor Department says employers added 114,000 jobs in September. The economy also created 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated. Wages rose in September and more people started looking for work.
It appears that the opposite happened.

Voodoo unemployment? ;)
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
9,897
1,748
126
When Romney is president, this type of news will be praised by republicans. None will dare qualify the details. F**K the details, will be the republican war cry under the Romney administration.
What their real challenge will be is with defending that 19% unemployment rate under the Romney administration. Or 24%. Or more realistically, 29% by year 2014.
I have no doubts that republican spin masters are already now writing the excuses.
Their bull will be knee high by the 4th of July 2013.
And neck high by the 4th of July 2014.
BTW... my $10,000 bet is still good.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
24,238
1,865
126
I love how the diehard anti Obama partisans are claiming that the employment numbers were fudged. These people will say anything to get their guys elected.
 

LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,573
126
It actually looks like a whole lot of part-time jobs were counted, I think.

The data seems to show that and the article mentions it.

Could be a reflection of a transition to more part time hiring to avoid having to provide benefits.
 

LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,573
126
"Still, many of the jobs added last month were part time. The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million. "

This is largely part-time hires and a smaller work force, I think.
 

her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
56,352
9
0
Sometimes the job less rate goes down more than expected because previous months' numbers were revised up.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,993
1,679
126
"Still, many of the jobs added last month were part time. The number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million. "

This is largely part-time hires and a smaller work force, I think.
And that's not ideal, but to be somewhat expected in a slow growth economy. If we keep growing I think a lot of those jobs can become permanent.

Sometimes the job less rate goes down more than expected because previous months' numbers were revised up.
And that's exactly what happened here. 86,000 jobs were added to previous months reports. That means the third quarter shows significant momentum over the second quarter, and if that momentum can be maintained into the holiday season, it can get even more of a boost.

Here's hoping we can hit 220k jobs in October. It won't help Obama, but it will be a great sign for the economy.
 

LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,573
126
After all this time, and all those promises, and all that spending and debt, and that cool chart, it's a whopping .1% lower than when he took office.

That's what I'd be emphasizing if I were Romney.
 

her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
56,352
9
0
After all this time, and all those promises, and all that spending and debt, and that cool chart, it's a whopping .1% lower than when he took office.

That's what I'd be emphasizing if I were Romney.
But if Obama's name were Reagan, he'd be considered a saint?

 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
17,785
2,884
126
Part time or not, it is lower unemployment. I don't see it making much difference at this point. The left is going to shout it from the rooftops as a major accomplishment, the right is going to see it as to little to late.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
0
Edit: Actually, more people are looking for work (didn't read the article before I jumped in and posted it lol). :oops:

More people quit looking for work (or run out of the 2 years of unemployment insurance)? Also, I'm more interested to see what kinds of jobs are being created. Hopefully (doubtful) better middle class jobs that build something instead of "would you like fries with that" jobs.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-jobless-rate-falls-7-8-pct-44-123110986--finance.html
As expected fony job numbers befor election . You go obummmer. These kind of claims are useless without the the numbers for those who retired . Without those numbers its as meaningless as the number of people who just quit looking . A friend of mine was recently refused unemployment .. Didn't go back to work . but by these numbers he is working now LOL
 

The Alias

Senior member
Aug 22, 2012
647
57
91
After all this time, and all those promises, and all that spending and debt, and that cool chart, it's a whopping .1% lower than when he took office.

That's what I'd be emphasizing if I were Romney.
but barrack had to stop the massive job loss first
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,547
651
126
As expected fony job numbers befor election . You go obummmer. These kind of claims are useless without the the numbers for those who retired . Without those numbers its as meaningless as the number of people who just quit looking . A friend of mine was recently refused unemployment .. Didn't go back to work . but by these numbers he is working now LOL
Actually, no.
 

Matt1970

Lifer
Mar 19, 2007
12,320
2
0
This just goes to show you that despite what the Government does, the economy will recover anyways.
 

SheHateMe

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2012
7,251
20
81
Did this happen because Romney put Big Bird and the fat-cats at PBS outta business?
 

crownjules

Diamond Member
Jul 7, 2005
4,858
0
76
As expected fony job numbers befor election . You go obummmer. These kind of claims are useless without the the numbers for those who retired . Without those numbers its as meaningless as the number of people who just quit looking . A friend of mine was recently refused unemployment .. Didn't go back to work . but by these numbers he is working now LOL
I, too, ignore official stats based on personal anecdotes (and bias).
 

momeNt

Diamond Member
Jan 26, 2011
9,297
350
126
We would all be employed if those who were employed worked less, part time employment would absorb unemployment.

We've had a huge shift to part time employment in this country. The quality of employment keeps dropping.

Did BLS count line place holders for the iPhone 5 in this survey too? I assumed most didn't report that as employment but maybe I'm wrong.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,993
1,679
126
After all this time, and all those promises, and all that spending and debt, and that cool chart, it's a whopping .1% lower than when he took office.

That's what I'd be emphasizing if I were Romney.
As expected fony job numbers befor election . You go obummmer. These kind of claims are useless without the the numbers for those who retired . Without those numbers its as meaningless as the number of people who just quit looking . A friend of mine was recently refused unemployment .. Didn't go back to work . but by these numbers he is working now LOL
We would all be employed if those who were employed worked less, part time employment would absorb unemployment.

We've had a huge shift to part time employment in this country. The quality of employment keeps dropping.

Did BLS count line place holders for the iPhone 5 in this survey too? I assumed most didn't report that as employment but maybe I'm wrong.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"The economy also created 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated. Wages rose in September and more people started looking for work."
Remember, BLS uses two different sets of data to calculate the supposed seasonally adjusted, annualized number of jobs created (sampling of corporate payrolls?) vs. unemployment rate from their household survey (basically calling up people on phone and asking do you have a job). I think there is an awful lot of guesswork, inference, and fill in the blanks, because data is only incomplete sampling of whole jobs market.









http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/09/07/charts-of-the-day-jobs-report-isnt-as-bad-as-it-looks/?mod=yahoo_hs




September BLS Monthly Jobs Report:

By Level of Education Attained: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm (unemployment rate dropped from 12% -> 11.3% for those with less than a high school education)

By Race / Sex: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat07.htm






"Stipp: Let's talk about the unemployment rate. This is calculated based on a separate survey. It ticked down, which is a little bit strange considering that we also didn't see great strength in the absolute number of jobs that were added. How do you explain that? What's behind those two metrics moving in different directions?

Johnson: You know, in our preview video we talked a little bit about this phenomenon. It may as students go back to school, because maybe it was earlier than usual just a little bit--it's been constantly shifting a little bit earlier as more [schools] try to get their semesters in before Thanksgiving. So, that's certainly out there as an effect.

Then we have more people, because the job market isn't where they want it to be, going back to school instead of maybe staying in the workforce. And so, if they are back at school, they don't count as a part of the workforce. So, I think that's what happened a little bit. As people went back to school, those people weren't replaced [in their summer jobs]. They were hired for a summer job, and so when they go back [to school] before the magic date, the cutoff date [for the August government employment reporting], which is the middle of August, then they don't count anymore as being either employed or looking for work. And so, when you saw both those have a downtick--a downtick in employment [growth], and a dramatic downtick in the number of people looking for work, that's how you get this unemployment rate down.

Stipp: So, that unemployment rate will come down when more people who are looking for work find jobs, or when people drop out and they're not in the workforce anymore…

Johnson: Right.

Stipp: … Going back to school is one of the reasons that they would drop out.

Johnson: Yes. I hate to use the words "drop out," because going back to school is a good thing, I think, and that's a very positive thing about how we will retrain and adjust; that's one of the strengths of our economy. But I think that is biasing the number right now. And the other way you see it is the temporary help number, which has been up almost every month of the recession, was actually down [in August]. And guess where most students lie? It's in the temporary help pool."


http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=567065
"This week, the European Central Bank took steps that loosened monetary policy and China rolled out new infrastructure stimulus measures as economic news in both areas continued to show signs of slowing. I suspect that the Fed may follow suit at its meeting next week, following a poor manufacturing purchasing managers' report and a softer-than-expected employment report for August. (Though I don't think the employment was a disaster.)

However, a lot of the economic news this week was positive. The ADP payroll report showed a meaningful increase, the Challenger, Gray layoff report hit a 20-month low, and the ISM purchasing managers' report on services showed a surprise increase. Even the weekly data looked great, with the weekly shopping center report showing 3.7% year-over-year growth and initial unemployment claims falling again, approaching a recovery low.

The combined data seem to suggest that employers are hanging on to employees for dear life but not adding anybody new unless absolutely necessary. Meanwhile, strong auto sales and continued improvements in the housing market seem to suggest that consumers are continuing to increase spending at a slow but steady pace. And some of that spending is on big-ticket items and not just tchotchkes."


http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=567188

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/03/us-usa-economy-services-idUSBRE8920QD20121003



Also remember that the same Morningstar economist has previously said that while the rate of recovery from this recession has been about half as fast as more garden variety recessions in past, those recoveries have also been driven by 1) government spending and 2) construction...

(I've read tidbits that state and local government budgets cuts may be slowing, and construction is picking up, with new starts from spring now entering labor intensive finishing stages. Chance of another pop in October BLS monthly jobs report also exists, because while new home builders have increased construction from 500,000 units to 750,000, Bob Johnson said no new construction workers have shown up on BLS reports yet.)
 
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