Unemployment drops from 8.3% to 8.1% in August

[Ryan]

Link coming... 96,000 non-farm jobs added last month.

 

[mshan]

edit" (copied and pasted from below because I think it is an an important detail to emphasize):

Some College or Associate's Degree: 7.1% (July) --> 6.6% (August)

Less than High School: 12.7 (July)--> 12% (August)

High School, No College: has been trending up from April (7.9%) --> May (8.1%) --> June (8.4%) --> July (8.7) --> August (8.8%)


http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm

(my quick take is that jobs market for those with college education is so tight (4% unemployment rate) that employers are considering those who didn't quite get that opportunity to complete a college degree)

Margin of error on actual jobs number is + / - 100k.

Previous jump from 8.2% to 8.3% was essentially rounding error (basically down from 8.25% previous months, up to 8.3% last month).

Politics aside, you are apparently supposed to look at 3 month moving average, on a year over year basis (not month to month) to get a more honest assessment of underlying job growth (so far this year, about 150k/month, 1.8% - 2% slow but steady on year over year basis for something like last 6 quarters).





Current Unfilled Job Openings Now:

- Ron Insana did seem to confirm Bill Clinton's claim of 3 million job openings currently unfilled now (Ron Insana said 3.5 million job openings in this video clip on Larry Kudlow show yesterday evening (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000114304&play=1 start at 2:45 mark). Brandeis economist mentioned skills mismatch, and also that robots have replaced as many jobs and have been shipped off to China. IIRC, someone on CNBC this morning also said number of job openings in general is increasing (?)

- Home Builders Can't Build Enough Houses Because of Labor Shortage: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48926517 & http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000114263&play=1 ("The shortage is across the spectrum, but especially in need are framers, concrete workers, plumbers, roofers and painters.")

- Mark Cuban on CNBC said there are a lot of start-ups being created, but because of Amazon Web Services, they don't need to hire much to build up their businesses like in past.

** Auto Makers Scrambling to Find ENGINEERS: ** (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000114536&play=1) Nissan looking for 50 - 60 engineers now. Jobs start between 60K - 120K with 5k - 8k signing bonus, and applicants they see are getting multiple offers. Demand for engineers in general supposed to last for at least 10 years. Even in previous BLS, if you had the opportunity to achieve a college degree, unemployment rate is around 4%.

 

[her209]

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

That's disappointing. I was thinking it would be a larger gain based on the ADP numbers.

:\

 

[nehalem256]

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

That's disappointing. I was thinking it would be a larger gain based on the ADP numbers.

:\

Don't worry I'm sure it will be revised up shortly before the election

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

This is well below the 135,000 estimate. Higher-paying manufacturing jobs fell by 15,000 which is the most in two years. Participation rate is at its lowest level in 31 years. This is not good news.

 

[her209]

Government jobs continue their downward trend.

 

[crownjules]

It sounds good that the unemployment rate declined, but the underlying reason is not. The labor force declined from 63.7% to 63.5%. That means 368K people decided to stop looking for work.

 

[Bitek]

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

That's disappointing. I was thinking it would be a larger gain based on the ADP numbers.

:\

The adp numbers usually end up higher. Nonfarm rolls do end up get revised upwards a bit. Would have been nice too see a higher number tho.

 

[rudder]

368,000 people are no longer actively looking for work and are not being counted in the latest report. But hey... THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED!!!!!!

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

368,000 people are no longer actively looking for work and are not being counted in the latest report. But hey... THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPPED!!!!!!

Democrats will undoubtedly try the spin it that way.

 

[mshan]

Some college or associates degree:

Some College or Associate's Degree: 7.1% (July) --> 6.6% (August)

Less than High School: 12.7 (July)--> 12% (August)

High School, No College: has been trending up from April (7.9%) --> May (8.1%) --> June (8.4%) --> July (8.7) --> August (8.8%)


http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm

Gotta dig deep, deep into the weeds to find (nuanced) truth from all the noise, especially during presidential election year...

 

[sunzt]

jobs report was bad.

 

[PokerGuy]

Funny how the dimlibs will happily blurt out "the rate dropped from 8.3 to 8.1%", they are either too stupid or to ideologically blinded to know that the drop is the result of a huge number of people simply giving up on looking for work. This is not good news for workers at all, but I'm sure the media will spin it as if it is.

 

[Svnla]

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57507909/august-jobs-report-disappoints/

(MoneyWatch) The U.S. economy added only 96,000 in jobs in August and the unemployment rate edged lower to 8.1 percent from 8.3 percent. The report was disappointing for two reasons: Job creation was lower than expected and the unemployment rate dropped only because eligible workers left the labor force.

The detail is in the pudding and the source is CBS News, not Fox or WSJ.

 

[mshan]

Details, Details, Details...

Some College or Associate's Degree: 7.1% (July) --> 6.6% (August)

Less than High School: 12.7 (July)--> 12% (August)

High School, No College: has been trending up from April (7.9%) --> May (8.1%) --> June (8.4%) --> July (8.7) --> August (8.8%)


http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm

Unemployment rate is calculated from a different report than BLS (Household Survey?), where they just get on phone and call people and ask if they have a job or not. Big assumptions and fill in the blank guesswork when no answer, etc. BLS itself has something like +/- 100,000 margin of error, so they don't necessarily reflect underlying reality accurately... (Plus, IIRC, decrease in labor force participation rate could also reflect unemployed going back to school or community college to get skills required for 21th century economy)

Who do you think probably has a better statistical methodogy, the Government (Cramer even says below Commerce Department doesn't even have full time secretary!), or well run companies such as Target, Walmart, Costco, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo?:http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000103065&play=1 (yes, I realize this is discussing report from summer and is specifically discussing retail sales, but Cramer also calls into question government employment statstics)


:whiste:

 

[Svnla]

Another liberal news source says:

Democrats can point to a dip in the unemployment rate, to 8.1%. But that drop mostly reflected discouraged people leaving the labor force, hardly a positive for the president.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-august-jobs-report-strings-but-not-a-crippling-blow-to-obama-20120907,0,2935790.story

 

[PokerGuy]

I have to laugh at mshan twisting himself into a logical pretzel trying to spin this as a positive thing. Hilarious.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

It's looking like Obama is turning out to be the reincarnation of Herbert Hoover.

 

[mshan]

Another left wing socialist wacko, the Chairman & CEO Manpower Group, reiterates what I said above:

CNBC Host Simon Hobbs opens interview with "the tragedy is you know that there are huge labor shortages in some parts of economy?"


Manpower Group CEO --> http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000114255&play=1

Despite headlines, there are alot of unfilled job openings out there, if you have required skills:

- very tight employment market (4% unemployment) for those with a college degree; downtick in unemployment rate for those with not quite a college degree suggests to me that employers are having to relax their standards in some way and not apply rigid rule (e. g. I've seen others make comments on other threads about some minimum gpa threshold that they thought was poor initial filte in assessing applicant)

- entry level manufacturing now requires skills that some old school factory workers don't have (e. g. need to community college to get computer skills)

 

[Svnla]

Another liberal news source, USA Today says:

The unemployment rate has been above 8% since February 2009, 31 straight month. August's decline doesn't necessarily reflect an improving jobs market. The Labor Department calculates the rate from a household survey while job gains are culled from payroll changes reported by businesses.

The drop in the August unemployment rate fell because 368,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force — meaning they retired, stopped working or were too discouraged to look for work. Perhaps more disappointing: The labor force participation rate — the portion of the population working or in search of a job — fell to its lowest level in more than three decades.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/story/2012-09-06/august-employment-news/57672996/1

 

[jackstar7]

Another liberal news source says:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-august-jobs-report-strings-but-not-a-crippling-blow-to-obama-20120907,0,2935790.story

The Trib? Liberal? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.... hoo-boy... good one!

 

[spidey07]

So Obama has taken us all the way back to the Carter misery, as predicted. This is what he wants, this is his goal. This bad news should send the misery index even higher.

There is mourning in America.

 

[Svnla]

The Trib? Liberal? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.... hoo-boy... good one!

CBS News and USA Today are not?

 

[shortylickens]

Link coming... 96,000 non-farm jobs added last month.

I was just about to say: does that count for migrant workers, documented or not?

Thanks for letting me know. I been wondering when I should start trying again. I think now is the time.

 

[jackstar7]

CBS News and USA Today are not?

Consider this: if you label them all liberal, it means you're only right 2/3 of the time and therefore your labels are pointless.

In fact, why label them at all?

Why push an agenda?

The facts speak for themselves.