Understanding the battle for South Ossetia and how it matters to the West

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Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
513
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
How sweet would it be? In our wildest dreams we thought the most we would get before Bush left was a war with Iran. Could the US possibly get in one with Russia? Talk about exceeding expectations, I would absolutely gush over that.

In truth, I don't see this happening, of course. I maintain the West will not draw swords against Russia over Georgia, regardless of what happens there.

Why would you gush over the United States and Russia going to war? What sick world do some of you live in? You think economic activity around the world is slow now? Wait until it is engulfed in a world war.
 

BMW540I6speed

Golden Member
Aug 26, 2005
1,055
0
0
Originally posted by: JS80
Watch China do same thing to Taiwan once they see US do nothing to back Georgia.

It's certianly a possibility, but I'd say, a remote one. I don't think Tiawan would be as reckless as Georgia was. Georgia gambled and lost. There are always consequences for such recklessness. The Tiawanise will probably learn from this Georgia conflict - "don't punch a bear in the nose unless you are sure it is tied down".

Attacking a city with Russian 'peacekeepers' when your army consists of 17.500 troops and your airforce consists of 6 support aircraft and even then not sealing off the tunnel through which the armoured division in north osetta poured though. Sounds pretty reckless to me.

I also am not sure what the US can do on its own here, its all speculation. You would think the response must be a solid front with the EU. This time, so far, Bush "himself" is handling this OK: giving less bellicose rhetoric a chance before becoming more confrontational. Using the UN to build an international consensus that has a real capacity to take on actions short of war that still make Russia reconsider its current course. And, I believe, that can occur even as Russia vetoes a security council resolution against them.

But the EU needs to step up to the plate. The US can ill afford to get too far ahead of them on this and hot dogging it will be unlikely to convince them to work together on this.

The Georgians broke a ceasefire - stupidly playing into Russian hands and allowing themselves to be provoked by all the crap Russia has been pulling, shooting down recon drones etc.

In the end this is just another consequence of the unfreezing of unresolved ethnic conflicts following the collapse of the USSR. Like with the Bosnian War and the break-up of Yugoslavia and possibly it won't be the last.

Another way to look at this is -

One of the lessons of history - fail your allies, and you'll soon find that your allies have little use for you. Georgia stepped up to the plate for the U.S. - it has backed just about every U.S. diplomatic and military initiative. Georgia even provided soldiers for Iraq. Now they're in trouble, Should we back off, citing lack of U.S. interests in the region?.

You could say It is the EU & the U.S.'s interest to prevent Russia from gaining a stranglehold on Europe's oil supply. With Russia in control of European oil, and Iran who could threaten middle eastern supplies, we could be in a world of difficulty.

Difficult situation...



 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: Duwelon
Basically, Georgia was opressing South Ossetia and Russia decided to help South Ossetia by militarily crushing all of Georgia?

Is that about it in a nutshell?
Yes and despite senseamp's erection over Russia, many Georgian civilians are now dying, as civilians have a tendency to do in wars. I don't know which side is morally better. I'm inclined to say that both of them are devils and unfortunately their civilians are taking the brunt of it.
Imagine if Georgia had been admitted into NATO this past New Year's Day; what the hell do we do if Russia decided to test NATO's strength and invade Georgia anyway?
Yes, I've been glad they were not in NATO. Either it would have helped them not get hit or Russia would have gone in triggering either a) WW III or b) NATO shown as useless. None of those two are good.
China attacking Taiwan tho would be virtually like attacking Hawaii or California at this point considering the technology imports we get from there.
No, not even close I don't think. I believe the Bush admin has touted their agreement of the "One China" policy. I recall reading that some time ago. I think it's a valid statement he raised although the difference with Taiwan and Georgia is that instead of 100 US troops in Georgia training, the US is very close to Taiwan with a lot of hardware and also Taiwan will not be a quick pushover.
Russia wasn't attacked by Georgia though, South Ossetia was which was an "unofficial" independant state, obviously allied with Russia?
From what I gather South Ossetia should hardly be part of Georgia anyway, a lot of the people there don't care for it, but the international community did view it as part of Georgia proper. Of course, the most important player here clearly didn't.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Skoorb
How sweet would it be? In our wildest dreams we thought the most we would get before Bush left was a war with Iran. Could the US possibly get in one with Russia? Talk about exceeding expectations, I would absolutely gush over that.

In truth, I don't see this happening, of course. I maintain the West will not draw swords against Russia over Georgia, regardless of what happens there.

Why would you gush over the United States and Russia going to war? What sick world do some of you live in? You think economic activity around the world is slow now? Wait until it is engulfed in a world war.
What's your address? I will send you a new sarcasm meter right away :D
Georgia stepped up to the plate for the U.S. - it has backed just about every U.S. diplomatic and military initiative. Georgia even provided soldiers for Iraq. Now they're in trouble, Should we back off, citing lack of U.S. interests in the region?.
This is true, they had 2k troops in Iraq less only than the UK and US.

 

HeXploiT

Diamond Member
Jun 11, 2004
4,359
1
76
Originally posted by: Duwelon
Originally posted by: Perry404
Originally posted by: Duwelon
Originally posted by: Perry404
Originally posted by: Duwelon
Basically, Georgia was opressing South Ossetia and Russia decided to help South Ossetia by militarily crushing all of Georgia?

Is that about it in a nutshell?

Minus your gross exaggeration...yes.

How would you phrase it?

Russia is acting in the exact same manner Georgia did.

If I am at war with you and you fire two bullets at me do think I'm going to count your bullets and make sure I only fire two bullets back?
Who fights a war like this?
Since the beginning of time the loser in a war always loses more than he began with.

Russia wasn't attacked by Georgia though, South Ossetia was which was an "unofficial" independant state, obviously allied with Russia?

Actually Russia was because Russia had peacekeeping troops in Osettia which were attacked.
 

Rainsford

Lifer
Apr 25, 2001
17,515
0
0
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: Duwelon
Originally posted by: JS80
Watch China do same thing to Taiwan once they see US do nothing to back Georgia.

If China knew they could get away with it i'm sure they would. China attacking Taiwan tho would be virtually like attacking Hawaii or California at this point considering the technology imports we get from there.

Get people like Obama and his ilk into power, who thinks his smile can help 0.000001% to defuse dictators, and China will get Taiwan by force eventually.

If Obama is prez China won't have to use force to take Taiwan.

Obama is screwed either way. Foreign countries will be aggressive because they think he's a dove, and Obama will either have a choice to 1) turn the other cheek or 2) suddenly become a superhawk and start an aggression and eventual war to prove his might. Whereas foreign governments would expect McCain to be hawkish from the start they do nothing.

Even if your analysis of how Obama is perceived abroad compared to how McCain is viewed, I think you're missing a major factor in international relations...not every problem is best solved with military force. I know that we've forgotten other options exist in the past several years of the Bush administration, but it's worth remembering that a lot of problems have been solved without firing a shot and without threatening anyone with military retaliation. And if we want to use actual diplomacy, being seen as a "hawk" is probably counter-productive in cases like dealing with China.

We sure as hell don't want a shooting war with China, and they don't want one with us...and they know it, and we know they know it. So whether McCain is viewed as a hippy or Rambo makes little difference.
 

cliftonite

Diamond Member
Jul 15, 2001
6,899
63
91
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Skoorb
How sweet would it be? In our wildest dreams we thought the most we would get before Bush left was a war with Iran. Could the US possibly get in one with Russia? Talk about exceeding expectations, I would absolutely gush over that.

In truth, I don't see this happening, of course. I maintain the West will not draw swords against Russia over Georgia, regardless of what happens there.

Why would you gush over the United States and Russia going to war? What sick world do some of you live in? You think economic activity around the world is slow now? Wait until it is engulfed in a world war.

Why would anyone gush over the US and Iraq going to war?
 

BMW540I6speed

Golden Member
Aug 26, 2005
1,055
0
0
Originally posted by: JS80
Originally posted by: Duwelon
Originally posted by: JS80
Watch China do same thing to Taiwan once they see US do nothing to back Georgia.

If China knew they could get away with it i'm sure they would. China attacking Taiwan tho would be virtually like attacking Hawaii or California at this point considering the technology imports we get from there.

Get people like Obama and his ilk into power, who thinks his smile can help 0.000001% to defuse dictators, and China will get Taiwan by force eventually.

If Obama is prez China won't have to use force to take Taiwan.

Obama is screwed either way. Foreign countries will be aggressive because they think he's a dove, and Obama will either have a choice to 1) turn the other cheek or 2) suddenly become a superhawk and start an aggression and eventual war to prove his might. Whereas foreign governments would expect McCain to be hawkish from the start they do nothing.

Oh please, what "Foreign Countries" think Obama is a "dove"?. Don't be ridiculous. You could also make the case for, "Foreign countries will be aggressive" because - The Bush adminitration has the US tied down in 2 conflicts already. Obama, so far has handled it the same as Bush - Stressing diplomacy first. Your making stuff up.

Who is this "superhawk" person one becomes anyway, a cartoon character with a cape?
 

GrGr

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2003
3,204
0
76
Originally posted by: BMW540I6speed
Originally posted by: JS80
Watch China do same thing to Taiwan once they see US do nothing to back Georgia.

It's certianly a possibility, but I'd say, a remote one. I don't think Tiawan would be as reckless as Georgia was. Georgia gambled and lost. There are always consequences for such recklessness. The Tiawanise will probably learn from this Georgia conflict - "don't punch a bear in the nose unless you are sure it is tied down".

Attacking a city with Russian 'peacekeepers' when your army consists of 17.500 troops and your airforce consists of 6 support aircraft and even then not sealing off the tunnel through which the armoured division in north osetta poured though. Sounds pretty reckless to me.

I also am not sure what the US can do on its own here, its all speculation. You would think the response must be a solid front with the EU. This time, so far, Bush "himself" is handling this OK: giving less bellicose rhetoric a chance before becoming more confrontational. Using the UN to build an international consensus that has a real capacity to take on actions short of war that still make Russia reconsider its current course. And, I believe, that can occur even as Russia vetoes a security council resolution against them.

But the EU needs to step up to the plate. The US can ill afford to get too far ahead of them on this and hot dogging it will be unlikely to convince them to work together on this.

The Georgians broke a ceasefire - stupidly playing into Russian hands and allowing themselves to be provoked by all the crap Russia has been pulling, shooting down recon drones etc.

In the end this is just another consequence of the unfreezing of unresolved ethnic conflicts following the collapse of the USSR. Like with the Bosnian War and the break-up of Yugoslavia and possibly it won't be the last.

Another way to look at this is -

One of the lessons of history - fail your allies, and you'll soon find that your allies have little use for you. Georgia stepped up to the plate for the U.S. - it has backed just about every U.S. diplomatic and military initiative. Georgia even provided soldiers for Iraq. Now they're in trouble, Should we back off, citing lack of U.S. interests in the region?.

You could say It is the EU & the U.S.'s interest to prevent Russia from gaining a stranglehold on Europe's oil supply. With Russia in control of European oil, and Iran who could threaten middle eastern supplies, we could be in a world of difficulty.

Difficult situation...

Russia's energy reserves are too large. Europe will eventually have to acknowledge the fact that Russia's energy is critical to Europe. That is the real basis of Putin's/Russia's power. Russia simply has something Europe desperately needs.

Edit: Taiwan will rejoin China by it's own choice in the not too distant future.
 

Chaotic42

Lifer
Jun 15, 2001
33,932
1,113
126
Yikes (if true):
-
Authorities in South Ossetia say Georgian troops have shelled the road being used for evacuating people from the conflict zone, according to Russian Interfax news agency. Attacks are continuing in the South Ossetian region, despite claims from Georgia that it was imposing a ceasefire.
-

There is no good side for us to take in this. I hope we stay the hell out of it.
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: Chaotic42
Yikes (if true):
-
Authorities in South Ossetia say Georgian troops have shelled the road being used for evacuating people from the conflict zone, according to Russian Interfax news agency. Attacks are continuing in the South Ossetian region, despite claims from Georgia that it was imposing a ceasefire.
-

There is no good side for us to take in this. I hope we stay the hell out of it.
Why not? Then they can point at the civilians still dying because they didn't let them escape.

You know that movie Behind Enemy Lines with Owen Wilson? The main bad guy/hunter/sniper guy. If you look at everyone in this general area of the world as him it all seems to make sense.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,555
9,907
146
Originally posted by: Duwelon
Originally posted by: Perry404
Originally posted by: Duwelon
Basically, Georgia was opressing South Ossetia and Russia decided to help South Ossetia by militarily crushing all of Georgia?

Is that about it in a nutshell?

Minus your gross exaggeration...yes.

How would you phrase it?

Unless you're a squirrel, you need something bigger than a nutshell to understand complex situations.

Putin would like to reassert control over ALL the breakaway former Russian republics. He especially doesn't want Georgia becoming part of NATO.

Putin's Russia is no great or true "friend" of the "independence of Ossetia or Abkhazia. They are "protecting" them principally to make life politically difficult for the Georgians.

So, throw out of your nutshell the "Russia decided to help South Ossetia by militarily crushing all of Georgia." Russia has been waiting all along for Georgia to misstep so they could do this.



 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,682
40,038
136
I would suggest that while everyone needs allies, you need the right allies. Loyalty to alliances has destroyed empires and caused unnecessary wars. I'm a firm believer in NATO as it was, but it's funny and appropriate NATO is expanding too fast because this is precisely the situation that speaks against expanding NATO too fast.

If you want to claim someone is your "ally" - either vaguely, or as with NATO, formally - you really have no choice but to back that up or else your promises are just dust in the wind. And if you're going to commit to an alliance in the face of a nuclear-armed military power you'd best be sure you're certain of who you're willing to die for.

Imagine if Georgia had been admitted into NATO this past New Year's Day; what the hell do we do if Russia decided to test NATO's strength and invade Georgia anyway? At that point, we're boned. Either we go to war with Russia, possibly starting a nuclear war, or we leave them to their own devices, which would hopelessly kill the NATO brand. In the former case all hell breaks loose, and in the latter case you're now encouraging Russia to maybe try something with a country we DO want to defend. For all we know, Russia did this when they did it in part because Georgia is on the road to NATO membership, and figured they'd strike while they had the chance.

I'm not defending Russia by any means. Especially since they took the conflict far into Georgia, rather than just defending S. Ossettia. But tough talk from Cheney : "Russian aggression should not go unpunished", or McCain ; "Russia broke international law, something has to be done", is just that, tough talk.. it's bullshit, unless you've got a specific plan for how you're going to back it up and what you're going to be tough about. The nice thing about NATO was that it was an alliance of Western-style democracies, and there was a comfort level in democracies guaranteeing the security of other democracies. Georgia as a democracy is on flimsy ground at best, and the fact is, that there aren't many options for defending it even if you think it's worth it.

If we're going to be serious about the defense of the West, we need to get serious about what it is we're trying to defend. I think that should be a reasonably exclusive list. I'm not denying that the Georgians are getting fucked in this brouhaha or that we should get serious about it - Bush has embarassed himself here, by "pimping" a not-so-established democracy like Georgia, going there for photo-ops and dancing, and pushing for NATO membership to quickly - but this problem was started years ago, not last week, by the ridiculous overexpansion of NATO from what it was supposed to defend to trying to defend who the hell knows what. I'd much rather drop the "North Atlantic" part and get countries like Japan, Australia et al. to join than bring in quasi-democracies like Georgia.

Everyone should ask themselves this question ; "Who'd you rather die for"?


Great Post of The Day Nominee! :thumbsup:



Taiwan was the first thing I thought of when hearing of this too.





 

Drift3r

Guest
Jun 3, 2003
3,572
0
0
Originally posted by: JS80
Watch China do same thing to Taiwan once they see US do nothing to back Georgia.

The way Taiwan is heading they will soon vote themselves part of China. At worst they'll end up being like Hong Kong. Oh the horrors !
 

HeXploiT

Diamond Member
Jun 11, 2004
4,359
1
76
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Maybe now is the time for us to finally grab Cuba? (no not snow-day Cuba)

Actually I think this one is post of the day. Course we have to await Cubus attack on Florida....
 

Buck Armstrong

Platinum Member
Dec 17, 2004
2,015
1
0
Originally posted by: Perry404
Originally posted by: Ocguy31
Maybe now is the time for us to finally grab Cuba? (no not snow-day Cuba)

Actually I think this one is post of the day. Course we have to await Cubus attack on Florida....

Have you been to Miami lately? They've already established a bridgehead.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,586
50,771
136
Yeah Russia! What are you doing invading sovereign nations!? Don't you know that's our business?
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
Sadly, GWB, Cheney, and Rice have no moral standing to use against Putin. And Russia is going big enough to crush all opposition. We can only wait to see how this will play out in the UN.
Georgia is likely going to have to play for for some time to rally support.
 

Oceandevi

Diamond Member
Jan 20, 2006
3,085
1
0
Originally posted by: JS80
Watch China do same thing to Taiwan once they see US do nothing to back Georgia.

China will take taiwan slowly. They are family.
 

Oceandevi

Diamond Member
Jan 20, 2006
3,085
1
0
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: Skoorb
How sweet would it be? In our wildest dreams we thought the most we would get before Bush left was a war with Iran. Could the US possibly get in one with Russia? Talk about exceeding expectations, I would absolutely gush over that.

In truth, I don't see this happening, of course. I maintain the West will not draw swords against Russia over Georgia, regardless of what happens there.

Why would you gush over the United States and Russia going to war? What sick world do some of you live in? You think economic activity around the world is slow now? Wait until it is engulfed in a world war.

hey it helped last time.
 

BarneyFife

Diamond Member
Aug 12, 2001
3,875
0
76
The president of Georgia is a moron. I bet the US told him to invade and said we have your back. Little did they know the US pulls these kinds of stunts all the time. Bush told Saddam that he could have Kuwait and then pulled the rug underneath his feet. Same thing is happening with Georgia. When will these people learn? These fools thought they would get on the good side by providing troops little did they know you never do business with the US unless you want to get burned. Georgia not only got burned but now Russia is giving them a bitch slap. Sucks to be them but you don't poke a bear with a stick.
 

RichardE

Banned
Dec 31, 2005
10,246
2
0
Being an ally with the US is like having a farm beside a river that moves. For years or decades you might be prosperous, but one day the river will move and you will find yourself ruined.


On another note, the more I read about the war, the more it seems a minor squabble compared to some of the recent wars. With so little civilians casualties I think Georgia is getting lucky. I think they deserved this.