Originally posted by: BMW540I6speed
Originally posted by: JS80
Watch China do same thing to Taiwan once they see US do nothing to back Georgia.
It's certianly a possibility, but I'd say, a remote one. I don't think Tiawan would be as reckless as Georgia was. Georgia gambled and lost. There are always consequences for such recklessness. The Tiawanise will probably learn from this Georgia conflict - "don't punch a bear in the nose unless you are sure it is tied down".
Attacking a city with Russian 'peacekeepers' when your army consists of 17.500 troops and your airforce consists of 6 support aircraft and even then not sealing off the tunnel through which the armoured division in north osetta poured though. Sounds pretty reckless to me.
I also am not sure what the US can do on its own here, its all speculation. You would think the response must be a solid front with the EU. This time, so far, Bush "himself" is handling this OK: giving less bellicose rhetoric a chance before becoming more confrontational. Using the UN to build an international consensus that has a real capacity to take on actions short of war that still make Russia reconsider its current course. And, I believe, that can occur even as Russia vetoes a security council resolution against them.
But the EU needs to step up to the plate. The US can ill afford to get too far ahead of them on this and hot dogging it will be unlikely to convince them to work together on this.
The Georgians broke a ceasefire - stupidly playing into Russian hands and allowing themselves to be provoked by all the crap Russia has been pulling, shooting down recon drones etc.
In the end this is just another consequence of the unfreezing of unresolved ethnic conflicts following the collapse of the USSR. Like with the Bosnian War and the break-up of Yugoslavia and possibly it won't be the last.
Another way to look at this is -
One of the lessons of history - fail your allies, and you'll soon find that your allies have little use for you. Georgia stepped up to the plate for the U.S. - it has backed just about every U.S. diplomatic and military initiative. Georgia even provided soldiers for Iraq. Now they're in trouble, Should we back off, citing lack of U.S. interests in the region?.
You could say It is the EU & the U.S.'s interest to prevent Russia from gaining a stranglehold on Europe's oil supply. With Russia in control of European oil, and Iran who could threaten middle eastern supplies, we could be in a world of difficulty.
Difficult situation...