Um.... global economic meltdown around the corner?

[jman19]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: jman19

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I read some place that there were signs that we were already starting a recovery.

Guess we shall know in a few more weeks/months.

One of the points made in the article was that the steps the Fed had made to prevent a recession were going to result in a period of slow economic growth. As if the options were a recession followed by a normal growth period or no recession, but an extended period of slow growth instead.

"Read some place"

Too bad that doesn't imply being informed in the least. Credit is going down the toilet and will continue to do so.

credit markets are actually improving, profjohn is right, we are already on the way out, that said gdp probably fell this quarter, albeit slightly.

there are lost of bad stuff, but most of that is already figured into the market

Credit markets are improving in some pockets, but overall, are still in the shitter.

Yep. Certain segments of consumer credit are probably in for hard times.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: jman19

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: jman19

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I read some place that there were signs that we were already starting a recovery.

Guess we shall know in a few more weeks/months.

One of the points made in the article was that the steps the Fed had made to prevent a recession were going to result in a period of slow economic growth. As if the options were a recession followed by a normal growth period or no recession, but an extended period of slow growth instead.

"Read some place"

Too bad that doesn't imply being informed in the least. Credit is going down the toilet and will continue to do so.

credit markets are actually improving, profjohn is right, we are already on the way out, that said gdp probably fell this quarter, albeit slightly.

there are lost of bad stuff, but most of that is already figured into the market

Credit markets are improving in some pockets, but overall, are still in the shitter.

Yep. Certain segments of consumer credit are probably in for hard times.

There's a timeshare securitization transaction going to market now. AAA bonds are going out at 400 over benchmark, AA at 500, A at 600.

Last year the same company did a AAA deal at 50 or so.

When you have to give up 350bps to get liquidity in this market for an investment grade servicer/seller who has had *NO* decline in collateral performance, you know things are still shitty.

 

[SigArms08]

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: Cairoswordsman

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Tab
I talked to my grandfather whom is 84 years old and asked if the current "depression" is just a part of the cycle or if it's really that bad.

Anyone want to guess at what he told me?

Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Why would one forecast gloom and doom when we are all living so well?

Do you even leave your insulated bubble for vacations?

do you have any idea what you are talking about?

I'd like to think so, but there might be some bias in that.

Ask the families who make less than 40K/yr how great they're living nowadays. Cost of food soaring, gasoline, natural gas. Its become incredibly affordable for people on fixed or limited incomes, right?

High paying jobs continue to poor in across our borders, nothing is outsourced.
Wages have outpaced inflation, no?
The US gov't has a surplus of money.
Foreclosures are a thing of the past.
The value of the dollar is higher than ever.
Business like restaurants are reporting record profits.
Etc, etc. Yep, things have never been better. Its all gonna keep getting better, too (needle on sarcasm meter spins wildly).

Just because you may earn a substantial wage, doesn't mean the rest of the US population does and can easily adjust by simply spending more. People can just suck it up, be hopeful and optimistice and just stop living on that budget that includes saving for retirement. That's how poorer people can offset any surge in prices, right? And I'm not talking about those morons who have constantly lived beyond their means.

Do you have any idea what you're talking about? Did you bother reading some of the previous posts (how unemployment figures from the depression era are a guess, today's numbers are flat out deceiving)?

 

[MadRat]

Originally posted by: Jaskalas
How are your wages looking now?

I'm married so it looks pretty much the same good or bad. How much less is nothing left over after the paycheck come home to the kitchen table? Such is the life when you are married with kids. My wife's generation has no concept of savings, retirement, or investment in the future. That is a lesson one finds out post-wedding day. Women in general are all supportive and stuff right up until the ring and then when the ring goes on the finger some switch goes off and they turn into something you least expect. I'd be relatively concerned if every other married man did not talk pretty much the same identical story.

I'm inclined to believe that these troubles will pass in due time. But you and I have the choice whether it drags us down or not. Live it or leave it, love it or hate it. How you roll out of bed every day and interpret the day has more impact on your happiness than how some asshat in Washington D.C. or anywhere else regulates you. Such is life.

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: jman19

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: miketheidiot

Originally posted by: jman19

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
I read some place that there were signs that we were already starting a recovery.

Guess we shall know in a few more weeks/months.

One of the points made in the article was that the steps the Fed had made to prevent a recession were going to result in a period of slow economic growth. As if the options were a recession followed by a normal growth period or no recession, but an extended period of slow growth instead.

"Read some place"

Too bad that doesn't imply being informed in the least. Credit is going down the toilet and will continue to do so.

credit markets are actually improving, profjohn is right, we are already on the way out, that said gdp probably fell this quarter, albeit slightly.

there are lost of bad stuff, but most of that is already figured into the market

Credit markets are improving in some pockets, but overall, are still in the shitter.

Yep. Certain segments of consumer credit are probably in for hard times.

There's a timeshare securitization transaction going to market now. AAA bonds are going out at 400 over benchmark, AA at 500, A at 600.

Last year the same company did a AAA deal at 50 or so.

When you have to give up 350bps to get liquidity in this market for an investment grade servicer/seller who has had *NO* decline in collateral performance, you know things are still shitty.

Well, I'm pretty far from the securitization level, so while I knew things were bad, 350-400 bps for AAA is even crazier than I thought.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: jman19

Well, I'm pretty far from the securitization level, so while I knew things were bad, 350-400 bps for AAA is even crazier than I thought.

If my bank let me buy securities I'd be all over that sucker. As soon as spreads come in you'd make a killing.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Cairoswordsman

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Tab
I talked to my grandfather whom is 84 years old and asked if the current "depression" is just a part of the cycle or if it's really that bad.

Anyone want to guess at what he told me?

Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Why would one forecast gloom and doom when we are all living so well?

Do you even leave your insulated bubble for vacations?

He's wrong? Link or trollpost?

 

[rudder]

Originally posted by: JS80


Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Why would one forecast gloom and doom when we are all living so well?

How many of the currently employed people are working in service industry jobs that were laid off from other careers? I know a number of employed people who used to make good livings and are now getting by working at Target or Lowes for instance.

 

[SoundTheSurrender]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Tab
I talked to my grandfather whom is 84 years old and asked if the current "depression" is just a part of the cycle or if it's really that bad.

Anyone want to guess at what he told me?

Great depression = 25% unemployment
Today = 5% unemployment

Why would one forecast gloom and doom when we are all living so well?

Uh dude... people will always have jobs, it's about being able to to afford things that cost so much now.

People get paid very little and everything is rising in price.

My Dad is a independent truck driver. Somedays it's not even worth working because Diesel is so expensive and he doesn't get enough transportation jobs to do it. 10+ years ago it wasn't nearly this bad.

 

[Deleted member 4644]

Looks like I was right.

 

[bdude]

Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
Looks like I was right.

:thumbsup:

Did you make any e-money?

If not. :thumbsdown:

 

[soccerballtux]

Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
Looks like I was right.

Ummmmmmmmmmm wrong, lol. Exactly where is the global economic meltdown? I still have a job.

 

[Craig234]

Originally posted by: soccerballtux

Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
Looks like I was right.

Ummmmmmmmmmm wrong, lol. Exactly where is the global economic meltdown? I still have a job.

Apparently there were zero cases of cancer in the world this year too, since you don't have it.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: soccerballtux

Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
Looks like I was right.

Ummmmmmmmmmm wrong, lol. Exactly where is the global economic meltdown? I still have a job.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/..._vr_0929markets23.html

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Genx87
I think we are on a verge of a global recession. No doubt about it and some of the issues are directly linked to govt interference in the markets. Ethanol production requirements have lead to lower wheat planting in the United States. I heard we have to import wheat this year for the first time ever(I think).

btw when was the last time oil was 20 bucks a barrel? 1998? That is a decade ago, not just a few years.

I was going to mention this too. The global economy is slowing because of government intervention in the markets. This inevitably causes a slowdown in economic activity. If a protectionist anti-free market candidate is elected it is a guarantee there will be a global recession.

Man oh man do you get to eat your words today. :beer: