Uh-Oh! Look Who's Tying Romney in the National Polls Again!

[TheDev]

Uh-oh spaghetti-o's! Look who's tying Romney in the national polls now. It's Barack Obama!

Say it ain't so, Joe!

It looks like Biden has single-handedly erased Romney's lead from Obama's horrible first debate.

 

[K1052]

Even in the aftermath of the first debate Romney's polling never surpassed Obama in Ohio (by RCP's numbers) and the gap is widening once again. Barring some huge unpredictable reversal Mitt isn't going to carry Ohio and would need to run the table on Obama (and then some) to make the EC shake out for him. Unlikely.

 

[buckshot24]

If you look closely the poll that makes up the difference is the ABC poll where they have Obama up 3. ABC hasn't had a poll since the end of September.

They also have a 9 point gap in favor of Democrats. I'll tell you what if there is a 9 point gap come election night then this is over BUT, that isn't going to happen. In 2008 there was a 7 point gap according to a CNN exit poll.

Republican enthusiasm is 20 points higher this election vs 2008 and they have more Democrats in their sample. That poll isn't accurate because of their sample.

 

[randomrogue]

Buckshot works for the Romney Campaign.

 

[Moonbeam]

Buckshot works for the Romney Campaign.

I'm sure it would. Too bad it would be unethical to put a load of it in them.

 

[buckshot24]

Buckshot works for the Romney Campaign.

:ninja:

 

[Farang]

It may be way too complicated, but I wish Nate Silver would analyze the impact of early voting in the context of Obama's earlier lead. I.e. if 5% of swing voters voted in the week preceding the debate, and polls at that time showed Obama with +5 more support in a state, what impact does that have on the final result? What poll number does Romney need to really be "tied?"

Maybe the number of voters is too small for it to matter. Especially because it may mostly be 'in the bag' supporters who vote that early. But my understanding is Iowans, for example, were voting over a week before the debate.

 

[Doppel]

538 has Obama up to 66 % again and a fine point above, each day he is ahead clinches it for him because early voters cannot rescind.

Romney is really going to have to pull a rabbit out at this point. He is very fast running out of runway.

 

[Moonbeam]

538 has Obama up to 66 % again and a fine point above, each day he is ahead clinches it for him because early voters cannot rescind.

Romney is really going to have to pull a rabbit out at this point. He is very fast running out of runway.

You make me happy.

 

[Farang]

538 has Obama up to 66 % again and a fine point above, each day he is ahead clinches it for him because early voters cannot rescind.

Romney is really going to have to pull a rabbit out at this point. He is very fast running out of runway.

I think Obama is still very vulnerable if he doesn't have at least one strong debate performance. But it is tough to see how he loses Ohio (though I'm disappointed in the lack of polling there recently). And without Ohio Romney is not going to win, whatever anyone else says. If Obama wins Ohio it means the national polls are close and with all the variables he will pick off one or two of the remaining states to win.

 

[buckshot24]

538 has Obama up to 66 % again and a fine point above, each day he is ahead clinches it for him because early voters cannot rescind.

Romney is really going to have to pull a rabbit out at this point. He is very fast running out of runway.

The Gospel according to 538()

 

[zsdersw]

Yeah, really, the OP needs to take his mouth off Obama's cock.. and buckshot should take his mouth off of Romney's.

 

[ichy]

Both electoral-vote.com and electionprojection.com have Obama with a lead, albeit a much smaller one. Romney's recent gains have been impressive but he's going to need a bit more if he wants to win.

 

[Jaskalas]

Feels like a return to September where P&N was an echo chamber of the impending Romney defeat, and the polls alone were an indication of what a horrible commander and chief he'd be, since he couldn't run a campaign.

Hope all you guys are right, hate to see you lose your bets and possibly your minds from the ego shock of an alternate reality if Romney were to win. The media narrative has convinced you that the election was over a long time ago.

They couldn't possibly be using the airwaves to root for their bias, could they? Maybe I'm just living in denial that Obama is that popular...

 

[halik]

Intrade has been showing Obama in the lead by a significant margin for about a year now; still not sure how to explain the discrepancy between poll numbers and intrade prices.

 

[SheHateMe]

There's something about Joe Biden's Teeth that I just can't put a finger on... They're so perfectly straight...Im starting to thing they're false.

 

[sunzt]

Anyone actually put on bets?

 

[buckshot24]

There's something about Joe Biden's Teeth that I just can't put a finger on... They're so perfectly straight...Im starting to thing they're false.

LOL

 

[buckshot24]

Intrade has been showing Obama in the lead by a significant margin for about a year now; still not sure how to explain the discrepancy between poll numbers and intrade prices.

Obama is the sitting president and they don't get the boot after one term that often.

We had

Bush HW
Carter

I don't count Ford because he was never elected.

The last time before Carter was Hoover in 32

I think those odds are part of what is moving the intrade in Obama's favor.

 

[sportage]

Scholastic Student Vote, kids voting have picked the winner in every election but 2 since 1940.
And every election since Nixon.
This vote?
Obama the winner 51%
Romney 45%
Other 4%

And a child shall lead them.

YEP! Duplicate post. So go "F" yourselves duplicate post patrols....

 

[buckshot24]

Scholastic Student Vote, kids voting have picked the winner in every election but 2 since 1940.
And every election since Nixon.
This vote?
Obama the winner 51%
Romney 45%
Other 4%

And a child shall lead them.

YEP! Duplicate post. So go "F" yourselves duplicate post patrols....

I remember voting for Reagan in school, he won. I guess it's over.

 

[buckshot24]

Gallup has Romney up 4 now.