http://www.bestfightodds.com/
So.. Jon Jones is a .................. favorite against... Shogun
I'm putting down $500 on Shogun.
This is disgusting; people who had no fucking clue who Bones Jones was until maybe his last fight or the fight prior have completely jumped on the bandwagon, much the same as the people jumping on Shogun's bandwagon after he KTFO'd Machida; much the same as the people jumping on Machida's bandwagon after he KTFO'd Rashad...
Shogun has the edge in:
- experience; he's already faced the who's who of LHWs and destroyed them
- gameplans; his team comes up with incredible gameplans such as both fights with Machida
- bjj/ground; sick sick sweeps and submissions.. he has probably the best BJJ at LHW ( I consider it to be > Lil Nog's )
- brawling/striking on the inside; shogun has mastered the art of brawling on the inside
- granite chin; the only LHW that has knocked him down was Lil Nog
What Jon Jones has been doing to the lower echelon of LHWs, Shogun has been doing to the upper echelon of LHWs since he was 23 ( he should be 28/29 now ).
Jon Jones has the edge in:
- elite level wrestling; embarassed Bader who's an amazing wrestler in his own right
- reach; 84 inch reach is insane considering the only person close to that was Tim Sylvia with 81 inch
- creative striking; you never know what this kid will try and he usually executes crazy, insane shit that actually works
- athleticism and a youthful body; both guys are gifted athletes but Shogun's had a history of knee problems and Jones is very early into his career where his body is pretty much in its prime
Jon Jones is larger but lankier which means he has skinnier legs and those are open to be leg kicked the crap out of by Shogun, one of the best leg kickers in the business. Unless Jones really emphasizes his training on checking kicks or countering Shogun's leg kick in some fashion; evading it somehow or countering using his huge reach advantage, it'll be a night of leg kicking which will have a huge impact on his striking or wrestling in the later rounds. I expect Jon Jones to be fully aware of this and work out a gameplan countering the leg kicks.
Shogun needs to work on his TDD and spar with someone with a very long reach. He has faced Overeem and Snake who have a huge reach and defeated both so he is very capable of dealing with the reach. He was outstruck by Overeem though, but once he got Reem to the ground he just dominated and GNPed him; I expect Shogun to try to do the same to Jones. I don't think I've seen Bones on his back yet but it'll be interesting to see how he'll be in that position. Shogun needs to also work on getting out of the elbow pound Jones does when he puts guys down to the ground; deadliest elbows in MMA.
This fight will definitely be one of those dream matchups. Jon Jones in a few years once he masters everything will be an absolute monster, I don't think he's ready for Shogun yet but he's very capable of beating him; moreso than anyone else at LHW.
To me Shogun is already the LHW GOAT, despite not defending his title he has the absolute best resume of wins at LHW. Wanderlei and Chuck did not face better opponents throughout their career, Shogun to me has already surpassed them. If Shogun can pull off a win, he'll further cement himself in the eyes of the doubters.
If Jon Jones manages to pull the huge, huge upset he's definitely on course to be the LHW GOAT. Him winning the LHW belt at 23 would be *almost* equal to Shogun beating Arona, Rampage, Lil Nog and Overeem in the course of 5-6 months to win the GP in 05.
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