But I think the actual cost of paying the full-time driver (and for his car) is closer to $50k than to $30k, certainly if you consider that a self-driving car than operate for a lot more than 10 hours a day.
Do you really think the TCO on a car is anywhere close to $40k a year? Like I said, considering all of that, Uber is better off with autonomous cars. It's not an all or nothing proposition on the capex. There will be a long phase-in period as Uber disincentivizes drivers from competing with its growing fleet. I agree that the real question is how do they get from here to there technologically, but the business justification is pretty clear to me.
Look at the financial results quoted by the OP, they went from $10B to $20B gross in all of 2015 to 2016. But they got to keep just $6.5B. They absolutely need to capture as much of the gross receipts as possible, a 30% slice is not going to cut it over the long run.
THere might be a possibility of this occurring in areas which have big flat roads like in the Western states. At least in my area I don't see it working, but there is a strong possibility of them doing a hybrid approach with garages in large cities populations over 500k and everywhere else has the old model.
They are losing money because they are in a price war with Lyft. THe thought is that at some point lyft folds and they can raise prices to more sustainable levels.
Let's say they get a fleet of Chevy Bolts. Fleet discount to 30k but 10k in uber technology self-driving gear. 40k to acquire. Spend $5 million on a depot the size of a Walmart for maintenance and storing cars for refilling.
An average non-surged hour it gets 3 rides for $8 on average each ride. $24/hr. It can operate for 12 hours before heading back to the depot for recharge and maintenance. $288 per day, 105k/yr in revenue. The depot carries say 40 cars and employs 6 people paid 60k/yr at all times for maintenance, and for emergencies. $4.2 million revenue.
The cars drive say 20 miles per hour. In a year they are putting on 87k miles (!). At $5 per mpge, and an average mpge of 100, it is costing $4380 in electricity per car per year. New tires yearly are also required, $300. At that level of usage you're probably replacing the cars every three years as they would hit 250k mileage in that time.
In three years time then, you make $10.5 million after taking into account labor and maintenance. You have to replace the entire fleet of 40 cars every 3 years. Can probably sell the used ones for $10k, so that's $30k x40 $1.2 million. $9.3 million.
Insurance is fairly high, given the mileage driven. Likely even higher than commercial taxi insurance given the uncertainty of rotbotic tech. And no more exploiting grey zones of the sharing economy here. $10k per car per year, 400k, 1.2 mil.
$8.1 mil.
Not sure how to amortize the cost of the depot property. Meh, maybe it is viable.
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