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U.S. retailers ranging from Kohl's Corp. to Williams-Sonoma Inc. are forecasting higher sales growth during the holiday season than last year, boosted by an economic rebound and a recovery in stock markets.
Sales increases of 5 percent or more are projected by analysts during the fourth-quarter for merchants such as No. 2 U.S. discounter Target Corp., upscale department store Nordstrom Inc. and No. 1 bookseller Barnes & Noble Inc. Overall sales will rise 5.7 percent, the best pace in four years, according to the National Retail Federation.
``You get the sense that everybody's a bit more optimistic,'' said Britt Jenkins, chief executive of Tandy Brands Accessories Inc. The Arlington, Texas-based company produces handbags, belts and wallets for companies such as Levi Strauss & Co. and Jones Apparel Group Inc.
An income tax cut, low interest rates and rising stock prices, which helped the economy grow at the fastest rate in almost two decades during the third quarter, are expected to spur demand. The Thanksgiving to Christmas period anchors the biggest sales quarter for most retailers, accounting for as much as 40 percent of revenue for companies such as Toys ``R'' Inc.
``Retailers are going to do well,'' said Hardy Bowen, who helps manage about $11 billion, including shares of Barnes & Noble and May Department Stores Co., at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder Advisors in New York. ``Markdowns are going to be less and sales are going to be higher.''
Analysts forecast fourth-quarter retailer earnings will rise by 15.3 percent, according to Thomson Financial, which tabulates the average projections for 138 companies. That compares to the average 13.5 percent gain in the 2002 fourth quarter.
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