Been reading a lot about Chinese CP expansionism recently. Lots of interesting info at CSIS:
http://csis.org/
If you have an iPhone, you can easily listen to CSIS reports and discussion panels through "iTunes U". I've listened to quite a bit, and still listening to more.
Lots of random thoughts in no particular order:
I get the impression that the current guy in charge has been able to get different mechanisms of power in China under firmer control than his predecessors, and is able to move more decisively. A lot of the info is shrouded in secrecy, because China under the CCP has a long history of that. But there's some consensus about what's going on. He rightly believes that they have nothing to lose by trying to control, or even invading and seizing, unpopulated neighboring territory and assets in Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, India, Indonesia. People don't want to risk serious conflict (or a nuclear war), and the CCP doesn't care about their reputation outside China. Stuff like this in Vietnam just before the ASEAN Summit to intimidate all the smaller countries in Asia:
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/chinas-oil-rig-gambit-south-china-sea-game-changer/
and swearing in new crew ceremonies on warships above contested areas to try and ramp up emotion and heighten tension.
There was talk that they're trying to get a hold of 3 key islands (already built an airstrip on one) and then they will have actual control of the Asian south seas, and diplomacy will not be necessary then.
What I really don't like is the kind of games the CCP is playing like moving on countries one at a time when they have some unrelated issue like a disaster or government problem, and trying to rattle them. Or signing trade relationships, and then breaking them as a pressure tactic when its advantageous for expansion. Its like they're riding a wave of trying to get attention off some of their bad home policies and problems by attacking neighbors, or creating fake social problems and media frenzy about things like WW2 events. I've been to both Nanking and Hiroshima, and I think its disgusting to cheapen those kinds of memorials by using them for propaganda and breeding hate in closed education systems. Or for 'justification' to seize gas fields in a dispute out in the ocean somewhere. Its really sad that some pro-CCP activists have inflated numbers and fabricated events around the Nanking issue. Hiroshima was very moving I felt exactly because it focused on peace and was very accurate. Anyway, its off topic and feels like a bunch of smoke and mirrors. I agree with this guys comments:
"In every country, there will be places where you remember a sad past. In China, this is it. However, I would like to caution against being too emotional about the historical event. We should let the past be and move on. Perhaps one day China should build a memorial to the victims of mass starvation during the Cultural Revolution. Speaking as an overseas Chinese whose forefathers experienced Japanese, I think it is only fair, as the Japanese were not the only ones who killed millions of Chinese."
Japan took peace to heart after WWII and worked hard. It paid off, the country is beautiful, and they have a very good reputation not only in Asia, but all over the world. I met lots of Asians that want to work at Japanese owned or operated companies because the treatments so much better than local opportunities. In fact, there's an ongoing immigration problem of, ironically, primarily Chinese who want to enter the country and are willing to do it illegally.
Ironically, all this invade and "shaking people up" foreign policy of China right now is making them look very Axis like, including the "Kristallnacht"-like (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristallnacht) event toward Japanese people and businesses who happened to be around in China 2012. I saw that in the news here and people were very shocked after all the foreign aid and help and trade they've given China. Japan is a probably the most peaceful country I've visited, and a long loyal ally with the US and have really taken peace to heart. Sadly, many Japanese people seem to be getting less uncomfortable with the idea of a stronger military and even nuclear weapons to protect themselves from China. They've been relying on USA as their only deterrent, and China's trying to work around that, break up allies within Asia too. Nasty stuff. But its hard to explain to people the justified fear China and Co. cause in the area. I remember my first year in Japan N. Korea test fired a missile clean over Japan and it landed in the Pacific. My friend back in Canada said "are they allowed to do that?!".
As a side, the things I'd like to see addressed by someone knowledgeable on current China are:
1) History of repression and censorship under 1 political party.
2) Low general education levels, and CCP monopoly on education.
These two things make Chinese more likely to participate in, or let, really nasty things happen. People can be lied to, whipped up into a frenzy easier, and don't have a heritage of academic sophistication, questioning authority, etc.
3) Huge population and economy, so effects of whatever happens are large for everyone everywhere.
http://csis.org/
If you have an iPhone, you can easily listen to CSIS reports and discussion panels through "iTunes U". I've listened to quite a bit, and still listening to more.
Lots of random thoughts in no particular order:
I get the impression that the current guy in charge has been able to get different mechanisms of power in China under firmer control than his predecessors, and is able to move more decisively. A lot of the info is shrouded in secrecy, because China under the CCP has a long history of that. But there's some consensus about what's going on. He rightly believes that they have nothing to lose by trying to control, or even invading and seizing, unpopulated neighboring territory and assets in Philippines, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, India, Indonesia. People don't want to risk serious conflict (or a nuclear war), and the CCP doesn't care about their reputation outside China. Stuff like this in Vietnam just before the ASEAN Summit to intimidate all the smaller countries in Asia:
http://thediplomat.com/2014/05/chinas-oil-rig-gambit-south-china-sea-game-changer/
and swearing in new crew ceremonies on warships above contested areas to try and ramp up emotion and heighten tension.
There was talk that they're trying to get a hold of 3 key islands (already built an airstrip on one) and then they will have actual control of the Asian south seas, and diplomacy will not be necessary then.
What I really don't like is the kind of games the CCP is playing like moving on countries one at a time when they have some unrelated issue like a disaster or government problem, and trying to rattle them. Or signing trade relationships, and then breaking them as a pressure tactic when its advantageous for expansion. Its like they're riding a wave of trying to get attention off some of their bad home policies and problems by attacking neighbors, or creating fake social problems and media frenzy about things like WW2 events. I've been to both Nanking and Hiroshima, and I think its disgusting to cheapen those kinds of memorials by using them for propaganda and breeding hate in closed education systems. Or for 'justification' to seize gas fields in a dispute out in the ocean somewhere. Its really sad that some pro-CCP activists have inflated numbers and fabricated events around the Nanking issue. Hiroshima was very moving I felt exactly because it focused on peace and was very accurate. Anyway, its off topic and feels like a bunch of smoke and mirrors. I agree with this guys comments:
"In every country, there will be places where you remember a sad past. In China, this is it. However, I would like to caution against being too emotional about the historical event. We should let the past be and move on. Perhaps one day China should build a memorial to the victims of mass starvation during the Cultural Revolution. Speaking as an overseas Chinese whose forefathers experienced Japanese, I think it is only fair, as the Japanese were not the only ones who killed millions of Chinese."
Japan took peace to heart after WWII and worked hard. It paid off, the country is beautiful, and they have a very good reputation not only in Asia, but all over the world. I met lots of Asians that want to work at Japanese owned or operated companies because the treatments so much better than local opportunities. In fact, there's an ongoing immigration problem of, ironically, primarily Chinese who want to enter the country and are willing to do it illegally.
Ironically, all this invade and "shaking people up" foreign policy of China right now is making them look very Axis like, including the "Kristallnacht"-like (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kristallnacht) event toward Japanese people and businesses who happened to be around in China 2012. I saw that in the news here and people were very shocked after all the foreign aid and help and trade they've given China. Japan is a probably the most peaceful country I've visited, and a long loyal ally with the US and have really taken peace to heart. Sadly, many Japanese people seem to be getting less uncomfortable with the idea of a stronger military and even nuclear weapons to protect themselves from China. They've been relying on USA as their only deterrent, and China's trying to work around that, break up allies within Asia too. Nasty stuff. But its hard to explain to people the justified fear China and Co. cause in the area. I remember my first year in Japan N. Korea test fired a missile clean over Japan and it landed in the Pacific. My friend back in Canada said "are they allowed to do that?!".
As a side, the things I'd like to see addressed by someone knowledgeable on current China are:
1) History of repression and censorship under 1 political party.
2) Low general education levels, and CCP monopoly on education.
These two things make Chinese more likely to participate in, or let, really nasty things happen. People can be lied to, whipped up into a frenzy easier, and don't have a heritage of academic sophistication, questioning authority, etc.
3) Huge population and economy, so effects of whatever happens are large for everyone everywhere.
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