U.S. heading to violent upheaval

[dmcowen674]

8-3-2012

http://news.yahoo.com/us-really-experience-violent-upheaval-2020-162332158.html

Will the U.S. Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020?



By Peter Turchin, an ecologist, evolutionary biologist and mathematician at the University of Connecticut.


Circa 1870, the North fought the South in the Civil War. Half a century later, around 1920, worker unrest, racial tensions and anti-Communist sentiment caused another nationwide upsurge of violence. Then, 50 years later, the Vietnam War and Civil Rights Movement triggered a third peak in violent political, social and racial conflict. Fifty years after that will be 2020. If history continues to repeat itself, we can expect a violent upheaval in the United States in a few years.


Peaks occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970. Confounding this pattern, there was no peak of U.S. violence in the 1820s. In fact, historians call it the "era of good feelings." Turchin explained that social variables such as wages and employment were "really excellent at that time, so there was no reason for any violence to get going." The cycle was skipped.


But we might not be so lucky this time around. If Turchin's model is right, then the current polarization and inequality in American society will come to a head in 2020. "After the last eight years or so, notice how the discourse in our political class has become fragmented. It's really unprecedented for the last 100 years.



Only time will tell if the cycle of U.S. violence holds true, and another telltale peak — or lack thereof — is only a few years away.

 

[dmcowen674]

I don't have any doubt the U.S. is headed for another internal war.

 

[davmat787]

I don't have any doubt the U.S. is headed for another internal war.

Since you are sure the US is heading for another civil, or "internal", war, then surely you are doing right by your family and stocking up on ammo, rations, survival gear, .etc. Right?

Seems like that would be the responsible thing to do if you are sure you are going to be living in a war zone in the near future.

Oh wait, you probably can't own firearms, sorry. Lol.

 

[IGBT]

most states would be better of reverting back to territory status and dump all aspects of federalism and reclaim lost sovereignty. Federalism is failing and is a parasite on earners and achievers.

 

[Steeplerot]

I can see the teaparty stooges clutching their geritol bottles in indignation and peeing their depends while mashing their remotes to foxnews to retreat into outrage fantasyland for awhile after Obama gets reelected.

As far as violent revolt? Meh, it's not in the American spirit anymore.

There is a self-perpetuating loop while unstable feeds itself into the mindset of Americans to keep believing that they are entitled to a civil society and that those at the top have everything too gamed to give a toss. Just how they like it.

Anyhow the fear of change itself is not to be underestimated. Ignorance and apathy permeate our society and sow mistrust in everything the forefathers of this country set up.

Now is time for the capitalist parasite class to dismantle the system and consume what created the foundation that it was able to grow with.

Such is the way of capitalism. Dont count on the consumer citizens to have enough organization anytime soon to sort out their best interests in all the signal to noise ratio.

 

[dmcowen674]

Oh wait, you probably can't own firearms, sorry. Lol.

What makes you think that?

 

[Phokus]

most states would be better of reverting back to territory status and dump all aspects of federalism and reclaim lost sovereignty. Federalism is failing and is a parasite on earners and achievers.

No, the parasites are the 'earners' and 'achievers who ship jobs out of the US.

 

[IronWing]

This analysis demonstrates precisely why one should only ever collect two data points concerning anything. With one data point there isn't much to write about. With two data points one can write ad nauseam about the obvious trend connecting the points. Once one has three or more points then one has to explain the variation in the data. In this case the author had to stretch the definition of 50 years to make the Civil War fit his neat fifty year cycle, bringing 1860-65 up to 1870.

 

[techs]

I have watched with horror at the new obstructionism practiced by the Tea Party and some Republicans.
In Texas the Tea Party candidate who just won the nomination did so by proclaiming he would stop the compromising that the Republicans were doing. Think about that. We already are in a state of near paralysis due to the lack of cooperation between the parties and a candidate loudly proclaims he will go farther. And gets elected.

Our system of government was designed for rational people to come to rational decisions, as are most democracies. They break down once enough people decide to be irrational. Yes, I am going to cite the Nazi party. With their limited numbers they did everything they could to stop the government from being effective in order to get the people to turn to radical, non democratic government. And they did.

I could see the Tea Party and those Republicans threatened by the Tea Party to get enough votes to deny a debt ceiling increase. Or to stop the adoption of a new budget. While rational people would see the resulting chaos as a terrible thing, these people have left being rational behind. Huge disruptions in the economy are what they want. The want the government to fail.

So, yes, I can see massive unrest in this country. And while it looks like most people have the outrage beaten out of them, watch what happens when suddenly there is 40 or 50 percent unemployment, there are no police because half the cities and towns are bankrupt and a potatoe costs a buck.

 

[DucatiMonster696]

This analysis demonstrates precisely why one should only ever collect two data points concerning anything. With one data point there isn't much to write about. With two data points one can write ad nauseam about the obvious trend connecting the points. Once one has three or more points then one has to explain the variation in the data. In this case the author had to stretch the definition of 50 years to make the Civil War fit his neat fifty year cycle, bringing 1860-65 up to 1870.

And we have a winner folks ! Thanks for noticing that little stretch of data manipulation in the author's claim.

 

[dmcowen674]

I have watched with horror at the new obstructionism practiced by the Tea Party and some Republicans.
In Texas the Tea Party candidate who just won the nomination did so by proclaiming he would stop the compromising that the Republicans were doing. Think about that. We already are in a state of near paralysis due to the lack of cooperation between the parties and a candidate loudly proclaims he will go farther. And gets elected.

Our system of government was designed for rational people to come to rational decisions, as are most democracies. They break down once enough people decide to be irrational. Yes, I am going to cite the Nazi party. With their limited numbers they did everything they could to stop the government from being effective in order to get the people to turn to radical, non democratic government. And they did.

I could see the Tea Party and those Republicans threatened by the Tea Party to get enough votes to deny a debt ceiling increase. Or to stop the adoption of a new budget. While rational people would see the resulting chaos as a terrible thing, these people have left being rational behind. Huge disruptions in the economy are what they want. The want the government to fail.

So, yes, I can see massive unrest in this country. And while it looks like most people have the outrage beaten out of them, watch what happens when suddenly there is 40 or 50 percent unemployment, there are no police because half the cities and towns are bankrupt and a potatoe costs a buck.

Stop that

You can't tell it like it is

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

And we have a winner folks ! Thanks for noticing that little stretch of data manipulation in the author's claim.

Well Chicken Little has to crow you know.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Stop that

You can't tell it like it is

We already know he can't tell it like it is.

 

[werepossum]

This analysis demonstrates precisely why one should only ever collect two data points concerning anything. With one data point there isn't much to write about. With two data points one can write ad nauseam about the obvious trend connecting the points. Once one has three or more points then one has to explain the variation in the data. In this case the author had to stretch the definition of 50 years to make the Civil War fit his neat fifty year cycle, bringing 1860-65 up to 1870.

Projections work better for people who can't do math.

I have watched with horror at the new obstructionism practiced by the Tea Party and some Republicans.
In Texas the Tea Party candidate who just won the nomination did so by proclaiming he would stop the compromising that the Republicans were doing. Think about that. We already are in a state of near paralysis due to the lack of cooperation between the parties and a candidate loudly proclaims he will go farther. And gets elected.

Our system of government was designed for rational people to come to rational decisions, as are most democracies. They break down once enough people decide to be irrational. Yes, I am going to cite the Nazi party. With their limited numbers they did everything they could to stop the government from being effective in order to get the people to turn to radical, non democratic government. And they did.

I could see the Tea Party and those Republicans threatened by the Tea Party to get enough votes to deny a debt ceiling increase. Or to stop the adoption of a new budget. While rational people would see the resulting chaos as a terrible thing, these people have left being rational behind. Huge disruptions in the economy are what they want. The want the government to fail.

So, yes, I can see massive unrest in this country. And while it looks like most people have the outrage beaten out of them, watch what happens when suddenly there is 40 or 50 percent unemployment, there are no police because half the cities and towns are bankrupt and a potatoe costs a buck.

I did not know Dan Quayle had recently had a heart attack.

 

[Jaskalas]

As far as violent revolt? Meh, it's not in the American spirit anymore.

That is quite false. Violence comes from Anarchy, which can come from riots.

Incite the people into thinking they deserve benefits that cannot possibly be paid for, then go broke. See how fast the streets turn red.

 

[First]

Circa 1870, the North fought the South in the Civil War.

lol, wut?

 

[a777pilot]

Not going to happen.

 

[Sonikku]

Of course. Occupy protests from impoverished folk trying to spread the wealth will form mobs and before you know it, America will be looking like Batman Rises with criminals and the poor dreg of society tearing the country apart with their Liberal values and atom bombs and everything.

Except we DON'T HAVE BATMAN to fly the bomb away this time.

Way to go fucking liberals.

 

[Matt1970]

Nice try. Just a feeble attempt at a call to arms by the occupy movement. Meanwhile the rest of the country that has figured out what it takes to get ahead in this world will go to work.

 

[nehalem256]

Circa 1870, the North fought the South in the Civil War. Half a century later, around 1920, worker unrest, racial tensions and anti-Communist sentiment caused another nationwide upsurge of violence.

The Civil War started in 1861 and in ended in 1865.

Since 50 years is time period. That means that the civil war was between 10-18% off its benchmark year. Needless to say fail.

 

[Steeplerot]

That is quite false. Violence comes from Anarchy, which can come from riots.

Incite the people into thinking they deserve benefits that cannot possibly be paid for, then go broke. See how fast the streets turn red.

And when was the last good riot this country had? Rodney King? You make my point.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

Don't worry techs Cruz will win the senate race in November.

 

[Steeplerot]

That is quite false. Violence comes from Anarchy, which can come from riots.

Incite the people into thinking they deserve benefits that cannot possibly be paid for, then go broke. See how fast the streets turn red.

Or, if you actually read history you see that when people revolt there is almost always a valid reason of grievances to motivate.
And most of the time it is because those with power have left the regular folks with no other choice, when exactly has there ever been a riot over food stamps?

Last one I can think of concerning benefits was WW1 vets wanting their bonus for fighting.

This corporate propaganda stuff you repeat is so silly, do you ever use critical thinking skills or do you just repeat whatever bullshit you are told without thinking?

People without power will take desperate measures to support their families, this is basic sociology 101.

 

[IGBT]

well..when the US is in the post "united" state where will all the eco-KOOKS flee to?? Maybe all you's kooks can run off to California..or will it still be called California?? I suspect Mexico may re-establish authority and they may not want the eco-KOOKS. Then what you do?? The post united era is well on the way.

 

[boochi]

Come on Texas, we need someone to go first and then watch the dominoes fall bitches.