Short and Sweat:
The United States is declaring
war on international terrorism.
But such a fight will not just be
against suspected terrorist
Osama bin Laden and his
organization. Washington will
also have to dismantle a global
Islamic terrorist network.
---------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Faces Islamic
Radical Network
2100 GMT, 010916
Summary
This week's terrorist
attacks demonstrate clearly
for the first time the
existence of a
multi-national, global
network of Islamic radicals
and their sympathizers. The
United States is gearing up
for war against an enemy
that may span half the
globe and is comprised of
thousands individuals and
different organizations.
Analysis
The United States has
declared war on
international terrorism. In
his weekly radio address
Sept. 15 U.S. President
George W. Bush warned
Americans to brace
themselves for "a conflict
without battlefields or
beachheads," and called on
U.S. military personnel to
get ready for battle. The
president earlier met with
his top security advisors at
Camp David in order to
hammer out a U.S. military
response to the Sept. 11
terrorist attacks on the
United States.
Identifying the enemy,
however, will be neither
simple nor straightforward.
A number of officials
including U.S. Secretary of
State Colin Powell have
named Saudi exile Osama
bin Laden as the chief
suspect. But evidence
suggests that while his
umbrella organization
Al-Qaida was involved at
some point, bin Laden
himself isn't likely the
mastermind behind the
attacks. The skill and scope
of the operation indicates
that more than one base of
support was necessary.
Martyring bin Laden
May Increase Attacks
Publicly released
evidence is pointing to
Saudi dissident Osama
bin Laden as the prime
suspect in last week's
terrorist attacks on the
United States. The
evidence found so far
suggests that whoever
planned the attacks is
attempting to focus the
blame, and inevitable
U.S. reprisal, on bin
Laden. But arresting or
killing bin Laden may
make a martyr out of
him, and increase
attacks on U.S.
targets.
Click to continue
Related Analysis:
No Easy Battle
Global Intelligence
Cooperation Comes
With Risks
Anatomy of the Attack:
An Unsecured Port
The operational resources required to pull off this
week's attacks indicate the existence of a much larger
threat, a multi-national radical Islamic network with
operatives and sympathizers all across the globe.
Such a network likely connects a variety of Islamic
radical and terrorist groups.
Understanding this is the key to Washington's
warfighting strategy. In aiming to dismantle the
infrastructure supporting terrorist groups, the United
States will now begin focusing efforts on identifying
members and supporters of this global network. Bin
Laden and Al-Qaida will likely be only the first targets.
As the world's most notorious terrorist leader bin
Laden has provided training, logistics and support to a
host of Islamic radicals including Algerian, Egyptian,
Jordanian, Pakistani, Sudanese, Syrian and Yemeni
nationals. His training camps in Afghanistan provide a
basis for learning the tools and techniques of
terrorism. In a way bin Laden could be thought of as
the president of a university devoted to the education
of radical Islamic terrorists.
But taking out bin Laden won't end the threat of more
terrorist attacks against the United States, since logic
dictates that Al-Qaida could not have been the only
organization involved in the Sept. 11 strikes.
Like any business venture, no one group would be
able to supply all the resources. Instead, various
aspects of the operation would be farmed out to
different groups or individuals within the network.
Al-Qaida as an umbrella organization is but one group
within a network of radical Islamic organizations that
stretches from Cairo to Manila, from Kabul to Algiers.
The sheer scope and skill with which the operations
were carried out required several levels of planning,
organizing, intelligence and operational experience
and capabilities.
The masterminds behind this week's operation began
forming their attack plan years ago. They then needed
to locate funding and likely turned to sympathetic
financiers who could arrange for aid from even more
sympathetic donors. The planners also set up
separate departments with directors to handle
counterintelligence, logistics, training, diplomatic
covers and passports, finances and recruitment. At
the same time, security is maintained by isolating
each department from the others so that the
organization is not compromised.
Each division required support from a variety of
sources, which neither bin Laden nor his network
could provide. In fact, to say bin Laden himself
masterminded the assault overlooks some important
limitations under which he is currently operating.
For one he is trapped in Afghanistan and is limited in
what he can do. The Saudi dissident cannot even
make phone calls and has had to resort to courier
services in order to communicate with his associates.
For years, the United States tracked communications
in country and listened in on his phone conversations
made over the Immarsat-3 satellite telephone network.
Directing an operation like the one that took place
Sept. 11 would require flexible management that could
adapt to a variety of situations, necessitating quick
and reliable means of communication.
Even financing the operation would have required
resources beyond bin Laden and Al-Qaida's ability.
According to U.S. officials quoted by United Press
International, Washington had bin Laden's financial
and operational networks almost "completely mapped"
out in detail by mid-1997.
This suggest that bin Laden's finances have been at
most severely limited and at least under constant
surveillance. It would have been impossible for his
bankers to wire money to operatives in the United
States without tipping off U.S. intelligence agencies.
Clearly, bin Laden could not have financed this week's
operation alone.
Al-Qaida could have easily provided training and
perhaps even recruits. But there are several other
organizations that could also be tapped for
intelligence, logistical assistance, operational planning
and financing. For example, the Egyptian group
al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya orchestrated the bombing of
the World Trade Center in 1993 and has experience
operating in the United States. It also has links to
Egyptian intelligence and business leaders who travel
frequently and could provide information on airline
security standards in the United States.
Another example can be seen in the bombing of the
USS Cole in Yemen last October. The group blamed
for that attack has been linked to bin Laden, but there
is no evidence that it acted directly under his
command. That group, like the recent attackers,
employed crude tactics and weapons in a
sophisticated manner to cause massive damage. It
managed to severely damage a U.S. destroyer, not to
mention the U.S. sense of dominance, with a rubber
inflatable boat.
Indeed, there are hundreds of radical Islamic
organizations operating around the world, all individual
and distinct from each other, that could have provided
support. Although in the past a majority focused on
local issues and did not operate beyond their national
borders, a new picture is now emerging.
This picture is one of a global network tying all Islamic
groups together in a loose coalition. Like the Muslim
Brotherhood in Egypt, this network is comprised of
organizations and sympathetic individuals from all over
the Muslim world, including financiers and aid donors,
government officials and diplomats, former and
possibly current military officers, intelligence agents,
former and current guerrilla and militant groups,
information technology specialists and operational
commanders and their lieutenants.
It is then quite possible that the group that
masterminded the Sept. 11 terror attacks is comprised
of a collection of individuals from several different
countries. Indeed, the FBI's list of suspects reads like
a student roster from the renowned Al-Ahzar University
in Cairo. The operatives who carried out the attack
came from countries across the Middle East, including
possibly Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates. There was no local issue tying them all
together.
The United States thinks it is going to war with bin
Laden, Al-Qaida or the unnamed group directly
responsible for this week's attacks. But taking down
the infrastructure supporting these groups will require
the U.S. to identify and dismantle the larger, global
network. That, like dismantling the drug trafficking
networks in Latin America, West Africa or Europe, will
be a monumental task.
The United States is declaring
war on international terrorism.
But such a fight will not just be
against suspected terrorist
Osama bin Laden and his
organization. Washington will
also have to dismantle a global
Islamic terrorist network.
---------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Faces Islamic
Radical Network
2100 GMT, 010916
Summary
This week's terrorist
attacks demonstrate clearly
for the first time the
existence of a
multi-national, global
network of Islamic radicals
and their sympathizers. The
United States is gearing up
for war against an enemy
that may span half the
globe and is comprised of
thousands individuals and
different organizations.
Analysis
The United States has
declared war on
international terrorism. In
his weekly radio address
Sept. 15 U.S. President
George W. Bush warned
Americans to brace
themselves for "a conflict
without battlefields or
beachheads," and called on
U.S. military personnel to
get ready for battle. The
president earlier met with
his top security advisors at
Camp David in order to
hammer out a U.S. military
response to the Sept. 11
terrorist attacks on the
United States.
Identifying the enemy,
however, will be neither
simple nor straightforward.
A number of officials
including U.S. Secretary of
State Colin Powell have
named Saudi exile Osama
bin Laden as the chief
suspect. But evidence
suggests that while his
umbrella organization
Al-Qaida was involved at
some point, bin Laden
himself isn't likely the
mastermind behind the
attacks. The skill and scope
of the operation indicates
that more than one base of
support was necessary.
Martyring bin Laden
May Increase Attacks
Publicly released
evidence is pointing to
Saudi dissident Osama
bin Laden as the prime
suspect in last week's
terrorist attacks on the
United States. The
evidence found so far
suggests that whoever
planned the attacks is
attempting to focus the
blame, and inevitable
U.S. reprisal, on bin
Laden. But arresting or
killing bin Laden may
make a martyr out of
him, and increase
attacks on U.S.
targets.
Click to continue
Related Analysis:
No Easy Battle
Global Intelligence
Cooperation Comes
With Risks
Anatomy of the Attack:
An Unsecured Port
The operational resources required to pull off this
week's attacks indicate the existence of a much larger
threat, a multi-national radical Islamic network with
operatives and sympathizers all across the globe.
Such a network likely connects a variety of Islamic
radical and terrorist groups.
Understanding this is the key to Washington's
warfighting strategy. In aiming to dismantle the
infrastructure supporting terrorist groups, the United
States will now begin focusing efforts on identifying
members and supporters of this global network. Bin
Laden and Al-Qaida will likely be only the first targets.
As the world's most notorious terrorist leader bin
Laden has provided training, logistics and support to a
host of Islamic radicals including Algerian, Egyptian,
Jordanian, Pakistani, Sudanese, Syrian and Yemeni
nationals. His training camps in Afghanistan provide a
basis for learning the tools and techniques of
terrorism. In a way bin Laden could be thought of as
the president of a university devoted to the education
of radical Islamic terrorists.
But taking out bin Laden won't end the threat of more
terrorist attacks against the United States, since logic
dictates that Al-Qaida could not have been the only
organization involved in the Sept. 11 strikes.
Like any business venture, no one group would be
able to supply all the resources. Instead, various
aspects of the operation would be farmed out to
different groups or individuals within the network.
Al-Qaida as an umbrella organization is but one group
within a network of radical Islamic organizations that
stretches from Cairo to Manila, from Kabul to Algiers.
The sheer scope and skill with which the operations
were carried out required several levels of planning,
organizing, intelligence and operational experience
and capabilities.
The masterminds behind this week's operation began
forming their attack plan years ago. They then needed
to locate funding and likely turned to sympathetic
financiers who could arrange for aid from even more
sympathetic donors. The planners also set up
separate departments with directors to handle
counterintelligence, logistics, training, diplomatic
covers and passports, finances and recruitment. At
the same time, security is maintained by isolating
each department from the others so that the
organization is not compromised.
Each division required support from a variety of
sources, which neither bin Laden nor his network
could provide. In fact, to say bin Laden himself
masterminded the assault overlooks some important
limitations under which he is currently operating.
For one he is trapped in Afghanistan and is limited in
what he can do. The Saudi dissident cannot even
make phone calls and has had to resort to courier
services in order to communicate with his associates.
For years, the United States tracked communications
in country and listened in on his phone conversations
made over the Immarsat-3 satellite telephone network.
Directing an operation like the one that took place
Sept. 11 would require flexible management that could
adapt to a variety of situations, necessitating quick
and reliable means of communication.
Even financing the operation would have required
resources beyond bin Laden and Al-Qaida's ability.
According to U.S. officials quoted by United Press
International, Washington had bin Laden's financial
and operational networks almost "completely mapped"
out in detail by mid-1997.
This suggest that bin Laden's finances have been at
most severely limited and at least under constant
surveillance. It would have been impossible for his
bankers to wire money to operatives in the United
States without tipping off U.S. intelligence agencies.
Clearly, bin Laden could not have financed this week's
operation alone.
Al-Qaida could have easily provided training and
perhaps even recruits. But there are several other
organizations that could also be tapped for
intelligence, logistical assistance, operational planning
and financing. For example, the Egyptian group
al-Gama'at al-Islamiyya orchestrated the bombing of
the World Trade Center in 1993 and has experience
operating in the United States. It also has links to
Egyptian intelligence and business leaders who travel
frequently and could provide information on airline
security standards in the United States.
Another example can be seen in the bombing of the
USS Cole in Yemen last October. The group blamed
for that attack has been linked to bin Laden, but there
is no evidence that it acted directly under his
command. That group, like the recent attackers,
employed crude tactics and weapons in a
sophisticated manner to cause massive damage. It
managed to severely damage a U.S. destroyer, not to
mention the U.S. sense of dominance, with a rubber
inflatable boat.
Indeed, there are hundreds of radical Islamic
organizations operating around the world, all individual
and distinct from each other, that could have provided
support. Although in the past a majority focused on
local issues and did not operate beyond their national
borders, a new picture is now emerging.
This picture is one of a global network tying all Islamic
groups together in a loose coalition. Like the Muslim
Brotherhood in Egypt, this network is comprised of
organizations and sympathetic individuals from all over
the Muslim world, including financiers and aid donors,
government officials and diplomats, former and
possibly current military officers, intelligence agents,
former and current guerrilla and militant groups,
information technology specialists and operational
commanders and their lieutenants.
It is then quite possible that the group that
masterminded the Sept. 11 terror attacks is comprised
of a collection of individuals from several different
countries. Indeed, the FBI's list of suspects reads like
a student roster from the renowned Al-Ahzar University
in Cairo. The operatives who carried out the attack
came from countries across the Middle East, including
possibly Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates. There was no local issue tying them all
together.
The United States thinks it is going to war with bin
Laden, Al-Qaida or the unnamed group directly
responsible for this week's attacks. But taking down
the infrastructure supporting these groups will require
the U.S. to identify and dismantle the larger, global
network. That, like dismantling the drug trafficking
networks in Latin America, West Africa or Europe, will
be a monumental task.
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