U.S. Economy Gains 290,000 jobs, 231K from private sector

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woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,153
0
0
Looks like a great jobs report today. Best monthly report since early 2006. I'm surprised that it beat the prediction by a full 121K, and that the private sector accounted for almost 80% of it.

Unemployment rate went up to 9.9% because more people are now looking for jobs.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37014475/ns/business-economy_at_a_crossroads/

There is obviously no relationship between jobs data and the DOW, or possibly even an inverse correlation.

Are we finally turning the corner or is this month and last just a temporary uptick?

- wolf
 
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LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
MJinZ said:
Unemployment increase does not = turning a corner.
Click to expand...

The unemployment % is full of statistical anomalies that can mask what is actually going on in the labor market. We added jobs at more than 2x the rate the economy needs to keep up with new labor into the market. However, we hadn't done so for months, which leads to a slight uptick in unemployment %.

Turning the corner = excess of new jobs above what is needed.
 
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woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
7,153
0
0
MJinZ said:
Unemployment increase does not = turning a corner.
Click to expand...

The actual unemployment rate is not as important as total job gains or losses. It didn't increase in reality any more than it slightly decreased late last year in reality. The latter reflected a large number of people giving up and leaving the job market, whereas the former reflects that many of those people are now coming back in.

- wolf
 
CPA

CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
4
0
And wait until all of the temporary census workers (which are included in job gains numbers) are let go later this year.
 
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LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
CPA said:
And wait until all of the temporary census workers (which are included in job gains numbers) are let go later this year.
Click to expand...

The census worker hiring has been very small, private sector, as the OP indicated, added 231, a very strong showing.
 
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soccerballtux

Lifer
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
LegendKiller said:
The census worker hiring has been very small, private sector, as the OP indicated, added 231, a very strong showing.
Click to expand...

Wrong. 188,000 of those jobs added are from the Birth&Death model black box that we use, which is broken (among with some other things), as we've been seeing with the increasing monthly adjustments these last 6 months.

1m jobs for the Census, all being hired within the next 3-6 months.
We only used 300k for the 2000 census. Lol. Recovery indeed.
 
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LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
soccerballtux said:
Wrong. 188,000 of those jobs added are from the Birth&Death model black box that we use, which is broken (among with some other things), as we've been seeing with the increasing monthly adjustments these last 6 months.

1m jobs for the Census, all being hired within the next 3-6 months.
We only used 300k for the 2000 census. Lol. Recovery indeed.
Click to expand...

Ohh, yes, ripping on the B/D model. Nice bandwagon you've got there.

ADP payrolls are coming up also and they don't catch everything.
 
S

soccerballtux

Lifer
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
soccerballtux said:
Wrong. 188,000 of those jobs added are from the Birth&Death model black box that we use, which is broken (among with some other things), as we've been seeing with the increasing monthly adjustments these last 6 months.

1m jobs for the Census, all being hired within the next 3-6 months.
We only used 300k for the 2000 census. Lol. Recovery indeed.
Click to expand...

Watch out for the bullish speculators trying to tell everybody it's over. Keep saving people and deleverage. It's nowhere near time to start spending again.
 
rudder

rudder

Lifer
Nov 9, 2000
19,441
86
91
More jobs is always good news... but what type of jobs? Will this mean illegal will start coming back from Mexico to build houses?

They just built 4 new homes in my neighborhood. The first two were likely built by legal residents (not profiling but having lived in TN for many a years... I know what a goodun looks like). That last two were strictly Mexican crews and had about 3X the number of people laying brick.
 
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soccerballtux

Lifer
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
LegendKiller said:
Ohh, yes, ripping on the B/D model. Nice bandwagon you've got there.

ADP payrolls are coming up also and they don't catch everything.
Click to expand...

It's been proven a hundred times.
LegendKiller, you were dead wrong about the markets last time, we called you on it, and you conveniently disappeared for 6 months during the worst of it. We see through you. You are not the advice we are looking for. Move along.

Shouting buy at 10k saying everything was fine? LOL.
Fellas-- don't listen to this guy. He's optimistic, kinda like those stock-spam emails you get telling you to get in on the action.
 
Lemon law

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
Usually new private sector hiring lags other indicators in a economic recovery by up to a year, so yes it good news. Will the hiring increases keep going for the coming months, now that is the real acid question information to really tell.

Many are dumping on Obama for his lack luster economic performance, but when we factor in the economy he was handed, some consideration of that fact should be expected from the unbiased.

Hoover had lesser problems, yet his bungling of the economy saw unemployment rise swiftly to 25%. So by those Hoover standards, Obama is a doing great.
 
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LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
soccerballtux said:
It's been proven a hundred times.
LegendKiller, you were dead wrong about the markets last time, we called you on it, and you conveniently disappeared for 6 months during the worst of it. We see through you. You are not the advice we are looking for. Move along.

Shouting buy at 10k saying everything was fine? LOL.
Fellas-- don't listen to this guy. He's optimistic, kinda like those stock-spam emails you get telling you to get in on the action.
Click to expand...

I was wrong? Since when? I haven't "disappeared" for 6 months at a time during any point. Not sure what the fuck you're talking about.

My results on Marketocracy speak for themselves and mirror my own portfolio. Since Jan 09 I'm up 400%. I'll admit, largely due to my calls on the rental car companies (CAR/HTZ/DTG), but also from many other calls ranging from EK, IMN, CITGO, COF, AKAM, HAR, WFT, WCG, VMW, KNDL, among many others that I post here.

Now, kindly go fuck yourself.
 
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soccerballtux

Lifer
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
LegendKiller said:
I was wrong? Since when? I haven't "disappeared" for 6 months at a time during any point. Not sure what the fuck you're talking about.

My results on Marketocracy speak for themselves and mirror my own portfolio. Since Jan 09 I'm up 400%. I'll admit, largely due to my calls on the rental car companies (CAR/HTZ/DTG), but also from many other calls ranging from EK, IMN, CITGO, COF, AKAM, HAR, WFT, WCG, VMW, KNDL, among many others that I post here.

Now, kindly go fuck yourself.
Click to expand...

You were very busy on the forums telling people everything was fine at 12k, then at 11k, then at 10k, so on and so forth, telling everybody housing was fine. Then you stopped showing up, because everybody figured out what you were.

It was quite funny, actually. Yep. I distinctly remember it. :)
 
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LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
soccerballtux said:
You were very busy on the forums telling people everything was fine at 12k, then at 11k, then at 10k, so on and so forth, telling everybody housing was fine. Then you stopped showing up, because everybody figured out what you were.

It was quite funny, actually. Yep. I distinctly remember it. :)
Click to expand...


Yeah, sure, you distinctly remember it. Really dude, I was telling people since 2004/5 that housing was fucked. On here, on GotApex forums, on Analystforum.com, on FatWallet finance. I never once said housing "was fine", never. I don't even own a house since I was first in the market in 04 and saw it was silly.

I never stopped "showing up", you can look at my post history and see.

I will fully admit I didn't think the market would tank down to 6K, but I also knew that was a silly price and was more panic driven than anything, as history has born out.

Here's a little flavor for you buckwheat.

http://www.gotapex.com/finance-inve...issing-housing-bubble.html?highlight=Feedback
 
sandorski

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,715
6,266
126
Lemon law said:
Usually new private sector hiring lags other indicators in a economic recovery by up to a year, so yes it good news. Will the hiring increases keep going for the coming months, now that is the real acid question information to really tell.

Many are dumping on Obama for his lack luster economic performance, but when we factor in the economy he was handed, some consideration of that fact should be expected from the unbiased.

Hoover had lesser problems, yet his bungling of the economy saw unemployment rise swiftly to 25%. So by those Hoover standards, Obama is a doing great.
Click to expand...

Yup. Good news, but needs to be sustained before the Economy is out of the woods.
 
S

soccerballtux

Lifer
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
LegendKiller said:
Yeah, sure, you distinctly remember it. Really dude, I was telling people since 2004/5 that housing was fucked. On here, on GotApex forums, on Analystforum.com, on FatWallet finance. I never once said housing "was fine", never. I don't even own a house since I was first in the market in 04 and saw it was silly.

I never stopped "showing up", you can look at my post history and see.

I will fully admit I didn't think the market would tank down to 6K, but I also knew that was a silly price and was more panic driven than anything, as history has born out.

Here's a little flavor for you buckwheat.

http://www.gotapex.com/finance-inve...issing-housing-bubble.html?highlight=Feedback
Click to expand...

kk.
 
C

cubby1223

Lifer
May 24, 2004
13,518
42
86
During the WGN news here at noon, they mentioned the jobs gain, and was lead by hiring by G.E. & Berkshire Hathaway...

WGN is non-partisan, non-political news, and I think everyone will recognize those two companies as huge suck-ups to the Obama administration

coincidence?
 
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