U.S. does not believe Iran is trying to build nuclear bomb

[SandEagle]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-intel-20120224,0,5827032.stohttp://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-intel-20120224,0,5827032.story

Reporting from Washington—
As U.S. and Israeli officials talk publicly about the prospect of a military strike against Iran's nuclear program, one fact is often overlooked: U.S. intelligence agencies don't believe Iran is actively trying to build an atomic bomb.

A highly classified U.S. intelligence assessment circulated to policymakers early last year largely affirms that view, originally made in 2007. Both reports, known as national intelligence estimates, conclude that Tehran halted efforts to develop and build a nuclear warhead in 2003.

Truth is the first casualty of war.

I wonder if all the folks crying for a war will step back now?

Evil Iranians: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TObANrkrngo

 

[Herr Kutz]

OP, link is a bit messed up. The URL needs to be changed from .sto to .story on the end to work.

 

[SandEagle]

OP, link is a bit messed up. The URL needs to be changed from .sto to .story on the end to work.

thanks Haircuts. its fixed

 

[EagleKeeper]

Yet these Intelligence estimates are from the same people that also provided information regarding Iraq.

No one knows what Iran is trying to do and where they stand. No HUMIT seems to exist, only guesses based on who is asking the questions.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

From the article

The latest U.S. intelligence report indicates Iran is pursuing research that could enable it to build a nuclear weapon, but that it has not sought to do so.

I guess everyone needs a hobby.

 

[Texashiker]

If the US does not believe Iran is trying to build a bomb, then that puts the US at odds with Israel.

 

[fskimospy]

Yet these Intelligence estimates are from the same people that also provided information regarding Iraq.

No one knows what Iran is trying to do and where they stand. No HUMIT seems to exist, only guesses based on who is asking the questions.

Well by that logic we should disband the entire US intelligence community. The story of the Iraq NIE is a bit of a special case and an interesting story in and of itself, but it wasn't made using the standard process.

All that aside, the US intelligence community gets things wrong sometimes, but it does so on the basis of vastly superior knowledge, information, and analytic capability to anything anyone here has. An NIE is the most authoritative piece of work the US intelligence community creates. To discount one on the basis of 'well they got something wrong before' is sort of silly.

If you read the report you will see that they did not (at least in 2007) believe that Iran was actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. They did not say that Iran wasn't refining technologies, etc that couldn't be used in the construction of a weapon.

 

[Fern]

I heard a TV discussion about this. Said our intelligence on Iran in this regard has been so notoriously bad other countries (Israel in the case of this discussion) are reluctant to pay it much attention.

If our govt really did not believe Iran may be pursuing nukes I'd have to ask why the full court press for sanctions etc. Doesn't add up, IMO.

Fern

 

[Lemon law]

Yet these Intelligence estimates are from the same people that also provided information regarding Iraq.

No one knows what Iran is trying to do and where they stand. No HUMIT seems to exist, only guesses based on who is asking the questions.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The same exact thing can be said of Israel who got their nuclear weapons program on the sneak. As Israel out shouts everyone saying, I am chicken little and the sky in falling. --the sky is falling like a broken record.

 

[William Gaatjes]

I once was watching the news. It is not well known that Iran also has tourism (At least not to me). And that they have great places to go skiing. On those locations it seems, Iranians can be a little bit more free in their behavior. Publicly holding hands, sitting together.

Besides that, there are many beautiful historical sites to visit. In the other thread, i made a bad yoke.
I do hope the people in Iran will step in themselves if their leaders are going to build a nuclear war head. Because building one with extremist thoughts is insurance that that nuclear war head will be used. It is easy to press a button if one is filled with hate and has fully dehumanized the enemy. No longer seeing the suffering children. No longer seeing the crying women. No longer seeing the dead men...

 

[Doppel]

The only way we can be sure they are not building the bomb is to attack and then watch the country fall into disrepair, there's just no other way!!

 

[JEDIYoda]

The same exact thing can be said of Israel who got their nuclear weapons program on the sneak. As Israel out shouts everyone saying, I am chicken little and the sky in falling. --the sky is falling like a broken record.

Instead of addressing the issue you(Lemon Law) make Israel out to be the issue....
I guess it falls under literary dis-honesty..or in your case not having a clue.....


Sort of like when somebody posts something about the Palestinians doing something you argue like a kid and point out well everybody else is doing it...lol....

Kids argue like that...Mommy Billy I know it was wrong to take a cookie but Billy also took a cookie...lol

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Instead of addressing the issue you make Israel out to be the issue....

It's always Israel isn't it? If we were talking about North Korea I think that somehow Israel would be brought into it.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Besides that, there are many beautiful historical sites to visit. In the other thread, i made a bad yoke.
I do hope the people in Iran will step in themselves if their leaders are going to build a nuclear war head. -- the people will do nothing but die trying!! Soprt of like the uprising in Syria....you kill enough of the people doing the uprising and the cause is NOT worth dying for....thats what would happen in iran....Because building one with extremist thoughts is insurance that that nuclear war head will be used. It is easy to press a button if one is filled with hate and has fully dehumanized the enemy. No longer seeing the suffering children. No longer seeing the crying women. No longer seeing the dead men...

---- The reason uprising fails in some parts of the world is the people all to often understand that human life means nothing to those in charge....

 

[JEDIYoda]

I once was watching the news. It is not well known that Iran also has tourism (At least not to me). And that they have great places to go skiing. On those locations it seems, Iranians can be a little bit more free in their behavior. Publicly holding hands, sitting together.

Besides that, there are many beautiful historical sites to visit. In the other thread, i made a bad yoke.
I do hope the people in Iran will step in themselves if their leaders are going to build a nuclear war head. Because building one with extremist thoughts is insurance that that nuclear war head will be used. It is easy to press a button if one is filled with hate and has fully dehumanized the enemy. No longer seeing the suffering children. No longer seeing the crying women. No longer seeing the dead men...

__________________

Thye Iranian people will do nothing...why?
Because thery know that the people truly in charge only care about maintaining the power they have, Thus human life means nothing...

 

[Mxylplyx]

We should definitely error on the side of caution and bomb them anyways....

 

[William Gaatjes]

---- The reason uprising fails in some parts of the world is the people all to often understand that human life means nothing to those in charge....

Talking about media coloring. Why are you changing the words in my post ?
History is hard and difficult. Do you not get it. If the US stayed out of the middle east 50 years ago, The USSR and the communists would be seen as evil for many people. When people in Iran start to fight against the rulers, the same thing will happen. China and Russia will be claiming that they support the sitting rulers. What would you think would happen then ? Right now there is a serious shift happening everywhere. And yet it is still funny. China is seen as the enemy but all the western goodies come from...
Is economic dependency not a great way to prevent wars in a civilized world ? Guess who came up with that plan. It sure seems to help...

 

[Jaskalas]

If our govt really did not believe Iran may be pursuing nukes I'd have to ask why the full court press for sanctions etc.

We are backing them into a corner where developing nuclear weapons is their only way out.

 

[fskimospy]

I heard a TV discussion about this. Said our intelligence on Iran in this regard has been so notoriously bad other countries (Israel in the case of this discussion) are reluctant to pay it much attention.

If our govt really did not believe Iran may be pursuing nukes I'd have to ask why the full court press for sanctions etc. Doesn't ass up, IMO.

Fern

The opinion of policymakers and the opinion of our intelligence community frequently don't line up.

This is the exact same thing in every country, Israel included.

 

[blankslate]

Given that General Dempsey considers Iran a rational actor and that it is believed by the U.S. that Iran is not currently trying to develop one. It would be a good idea to try and talk to Iran about their nuclear program instead of just arbitrarily bombing them....

 

[Lemon law]

As we bitch and bitch and bitch about the Mullahs of Iran overthrowing the Shah of Iran, as the Shah by any measure was far worse than the Mullah's on steroids. Then we ignore the fact the most everyone would like to see the Mullah's of Iran replaced so that Iran can transform from a partial to a full democracy.

But what is ignored here, regardless if the Mullahs of Iran get the ole heave ho or not, the People of Iran are 100% committed to pursuing a nuclear electrical generation program.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

As we bitch and bitch and bitch about the Mullahs of Iran overthrowing the Shah of Iran, as the Shah by any measure was far worse than the Mullah's on steroids. Then we ignore the fact the most everyone would like to see the Mullah's of Iran replaced so that Iran can transform from a partial to a full democracy.

But what is ignored here, regardless if the Mullahs of Iran get the ole heave ho or not, the People of Iran are 100% committed to pursuing a nuclear electrical generation program.

That's cool. Now the problem is if the government wants to build bombs. That containment vessel has no peaceful use.

 

[Anarchist420]

Yet these Intelligence estimates are from the same people that also provided information regarding Iraq.

No one knows what Iran is trying to do and where they stand. No HUMIT seems to exist, only guesses based on who is asking the questions.

I thought Colin powell stopped providing false intelligence a long time ago.

Unless the intelligence was from before 2005, then it's impossible that the same people did it.

 

[JEDIYoda]

Talking about media coloring. Why are you changing the words in my post ?
History is hard and difficult. Do you not get it. If the US stayed out of the middle east 50 years ago, The USSR and the communists would be seen as evil for many people. When people in Iran start to fight against the rulers, the same thing will happen. China and Russia will be claiming that they support the sitting rulers. What would you think would happen then ? Right now there is a serious shift happening everywhere. And yet it is still funny. China is seen as the enemy but all the western goodies come from...
Is economic dependency not a great way to prevent wars in a civilized world ? Guess who came up with that plan. It sure seems to help...

I don`t think I changed one thing in your post!! I gave you a reason why the Iranian people will do nothing....and a reason why most IMO uprisings fail.....
The Iranian people will do nothing...why?
Because thery know that the people truly in charge only care about maintaining the power they have, Thus human life means nothing...
---- The reason uprising fails in some parts of the world is the people all to often understand that human life means nothing to those in charge....

 

[EagleKeeper]

I thought Colin powell stopped providing false intelligence a long time ago.

Unless the intelligence was from before 2005, then it's impossible that the same people did it.

Are you that naive that you really think that entire levels of management of Intel people walked out of their offices?

And the entire Intel system rebuilt from ground up in 5-7 years