Two point conversions?

[SLU MD]

i understand how and why people use the 2 pt conversion currently

the question is why not try it every time if it is successful 51.2% of the time.

 

[LS20]

Originally posted by: SLU MD
i understand how and why people use the 2 pt conversion currently

the question is why not try it every time if it is successful 51.2% of the time.

because if you make it the other team has an equal chance to tie it
and if you miss it the other team has a great chance of beating you

 

[chrisms]

Originally posted by: SLU MD
i understand how and why people use the 2 pt conversion currently

the question is why not try it every time if it is successful 51.2% of the time.

You score a touchdown and get 6 points. You can go for the field goal with a 95% chance of success or a two point conversion with a 51.2% chance.

That leaves a 48.8% chance that you will end up with six points, allowing the other team to score a touchdown with a field goal, leaving you behind by one score. Or the other team only has to make two field goals to tie. The benefits of the risk are the 51.2% chance that they will need a touchdown and two point conversion themselves to tie. The risk outweighs the benefit.

This isn't just a question of probability as you seem to think it is. There are a limited number of scores in a game and your lead in football is not really the number of points you have but the number of scores the other team has to make to get ahead. For this reason it is usually a better idea to kick the field goal to reduce or increase the number of scores needed in your favor.

It is like going for on on 4th and 1. The odds are probably in your favor but the risk outweighs the reward if you are sitting on your own 30 yard line.

 

[LS20]

why not throw all of your money in roullette (martingale strategy) if the odds are close to 50% for a certain color?

cuz you dont have that many opportunities to recoup the lost money.

 

[austin316]

Originally posted by: CellarDoor
Wasn't there some Princeton professor (or something) that came up with the theory that it's always better to go for it on 4th down, regardless of field position? I would guess he'd agree that it's always better to go for 2. I remember a game a few years back (49ers at Rams) where the Rams' field goal kicker was injured so they went for 2 every time. They made almost all of them I think.

Edit: He said on average you should go for it on 4th down in any short yardage situation, and in many long yardage situations. He's from Berkeley, not Princeton.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/columns/garber_greg/1453717.html

that was an interesting read if its the article from earlier this fall. A coach could never survive doing it though, because the first time he used these tactics and it cost them the game, he would be fired.

 

[Viper GTS]

Originally posted by: SLU MD
i understand how and why people use the 2 pt conversion currently

the question is why not try it every time if it is successful 51.2% of the time.

Because the goal of football is to win games, not score more points.

Any time those two goals are not compatible winning has to take precedent.

This is a lot like the poker argument: Is it ever correct to fold aces pre-flop in hold-em?

The answer is obviously no in ring games, where you'll have plenty of opportunity to exploit that equity edge. In tournaments the answer can be yes, when the finish position matters and coming up on the wrong side of that equity edge (which you will do 1/4 of the time) means the end of the tournament for you.

Just because something has a positive EV doesn't make it the right choice because something else may have a HIGHER +EV.

Viper GTS

 

[SVT Cobra]

Originally posted by: spidey07
I'm pretty sure the coaches have charts that tell them if they should go for 2 points or not depending on the score.

For example, let's say you only score one touchdown or an odd numbers of ones. Then you're screwed by going for 2.

I'm pretty sure they do not. It all depends on the moment and the situation.