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News TSMC Expects Chip Shortages Into 2022 (TH)

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
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Looks like TSMC won't be getting on top of the demand crunch till 2023!!!
The Auto sector will be getting a higher priority - I'm sure many countries have weighed in on this as so many jobs are affected when auto production lines need to be shut down.
 

moinmoin

Platinum Member
Jun 1, 2017
2,440
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So TSMC is saying its service is highly desired well into 2022 and possibly beyond. I'm sure the employees there are all giddy about that news. :p

As for the auto industry, honestly it can seriously burn for first shutting down everything on short notice without compensation and then expecting everybody to fall over fixing the mindless mess it created by doing so. Either it keeps its just-in-time system and orderly stands in row waiting for chips just like everybody else has, or it fixes that approach and does some actual forward looking planning with some actual warehousing where necessary just like everybody else has. The nerves...
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
7,412
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Shortages won't stop until lockdowns stop.

Also, it's not just in the GPU market. All semiconductor markets are affected. Actually food prices, housing prices, prices for buying puppies, almost every category is going up.

Inflation in reality is way beyond the commonly believed 2-3%.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
17,132
6,132
136
@VirtualLarry

1). Can we leave cryptocurrency out of the discussion? I'm not of the mind of the r/WallStreetBets guys for banning it, but you're taking us way off-topic already by linking CryptoPotato
2). Can you link to the specific part of the video that has the point you want made next time? That's 42 minutes of stuff that has little to nothing to do with TSMC or chip shortages.
 

coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
4,308
5,514
136
if @IntelUser2000 removes his comments about inflation.
So now you abide by the forum etiquette only if other members edit their posts to your liking?

The post you replied to was about prices going up as a results of affected/reduced production capacity in many industries, including services. Inflation was presented as a symptom and confirmation of seriously diminished worldwide production capacity. Cryptocurrency evolution (and future) has nothing to do with this, unless you somehow convince yourself that bitcoin finally managed to influence tomato crops.
 

Kocicak

Senior member
Jan 17, 2019
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The more they invest in production equipment the better, because after the period of abnormal demand is over, they will have free capacities, will compete for orders and the price of silicon will go down.
 
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Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
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The more they invest in production equipment the better, because after the period of abnormal demand is over, they will have free capacities, will compete for orders and the price of silicon will go down.
I don't think that semiconductor prices will go down much. All that investment in extra capacity will need to be paid for.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
5,756
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Long term the demand for computer chips is only going to increase, so prices won't go down in the traditional sense. Cost per transistor will of course continue to decrease, but we're always finding more uses for additional transistors in our chips to offset that and keep the cost about the same.

It's much the same with cars. If you look at what a Model T originally cost back in the day it's about the same price (adjusting for inflation) as an entry level car from any of the major manufacturers. Of course the car you buy today has far more features, gets better fuel efficiency, and is lot safer to drive. The price is the same, but you just get a lot more for your money.
 

Kocicak

Senior member
Jan 17, 2019
406
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I don't think that semiconductor prices will go down much. All that investment in extra capacity will need to be paid for.
Well, why should it be paid for in any other way than the current functioning production equipment is being financed? Is there some reason that the loans or any other financing instruments for this new equipment would be shorter term and would need to be paid of quicker? I do not think so.
 

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
8,459
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Well, why should it be paid for in any other way than the current functioning production equipment is being financed? Is there some reason that the loans or any other financing instruments for this new equipment would be shorter term and would need to be paid of quicker? I do not think so.
All CAPEX are payed for by the customers, of course. This isn’t a market segment that will be going into decline anytime soon (so, no write-offs).
 

ThatBuzzkiller

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2014
1,052
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We wouldn't be in this mess if America didn't implement their dumb sanctions against China ...

Between the two what could be the greater evil ? Continuing with these artificially induced shortages or China gaining industrial independence in semiconductor manufacturing ?
 
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positivedoppler

Golden Member
Apr 30, 2012
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We wouldn't be in this mess if America didn't implement their dumb sanctions against China ...

Between the two what could be the greater evil ? Continuing with these artificially induced shortages or China gaining industrial independence in semiconductor manufacturing ?
I don't agree with your logic. China is dangerous with an eye on Taiwan. If not for the sanctions, they are on the fast track to over taking our military. If they take out Taiwan, the shortage will be permanent. We should sanction them back to the stone age.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
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www.uovalor.com
I wonder if it's time for companies to start looking at other technologies. Vacuum tubes, relays? Maybe in a more microscopic form?

Once all the new old stock of chips/semiconductors runs out this is going to be a big issue for so many industries. Not just computers but even every day home appliances, cars, etc.
 

ThatBuzzkiller

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2014
1,052
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I don't agree with your logic. China is dangerous with an eye on Taiwan. If not for the sanctions, they are on the fast track to over taking our military. If they take out Taiwan, the shortage will be permanent. We should sanction them back to the stone age.
So you're saying it's ok that only the rich and bourgeoise class should have access to semiconductor technology while letting all forms of capitalism fail in the process including the stupid dreamy social market version that just about everyone over here galvanizes too ?

Also how do you figure that the shortage would be permanent under China instead of Taiwan ? With a nation as resourceful as China, they could at least serve themselves and the demands of non-western aligned countries. In Taiwan, logic fabrication is proving to be unsustainable and are incapable of supplying TSMC properly ...

The non-western aligned nations wouldn't have to be forced to buy from the likes of AMD, Apple, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, or Samsung ever again which would massively relieve the pressure in semiconductor supply but instead the US is too selfish to get everyone to subscribe into their American monopoly on high-end technology. Maybe Taiwan losing independence is "how things rightfully should be" since China would be doing a favour for many more countries that don't care and would actually be able to supply chips for them instead of being in this current mess caused by incompetent America ...
 

DisEnchantment

Senior member
Mar 3, 2017
784
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All those startups with new great ideas will have to wait a bit for now.
Leading edge Wafers and basically the entire supply chain is stretched thin. Throw in crypto in the mix it is very difficult.
Unless they can shell out top dollars to outbid wafer allocation (against Apple, QCom, MTK, AMD, NVDA et al) and secure supply chain, they need to keep investment coming to hold on for a few more years. But the cycle is likely to repeat. Very tough.
 

Doug S

Senior member
Feb 8, 2020
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We wouldn't be in this mess if America didn't implement their dumb sanctions against China ...

Between the two what could be the greater evil ? Continuing with these artificially induced shortages or China gaining industrial independence in semiconductor manufacturing ?
How are US sanctions creating the shortage? If anything there is LESS capacity from TSMC being used by Chinese companies, since e.g. Huawei can't get leading edge wafers from them. Arguably TSMC's capacity would be even more strained if there were no sanctions.

This would have happened regardless, and has more to do with supply chains being disrupted by covid (plant shutdowns, slower progress through ports/customs, etc.)

There was also an awful lot of companies reducing/cancelling orders based on anticipated reduced demand, not accounting for the fact that when demand returned it might overshoot due to pent up demand - that's basically what happened in the auto industry. Everyone quit buying cars when the pandemic hit (because who needs a new car to work from home or be unemployed) and rental car companies sold a huge chunk of their fleets. Everyone's car is a year older now so the pent up demand for replacing the cars is larger than it would be to "make up for lost time". Plus rental car companies all need to rebuild their fleets. Between those two factors the shortages we see in that industry (plus the fire in that Renesas fab certainly didn't help) are hardly unexpected.

In the PC industry it is even more clear cut - a lot of companies bought laptops for their employees to work from home, parents or school districts bought laptops/chromebooks/tablets for their kids remote learning so there was a big spike in demand that wouldn't have existed had the pandemic not happened. Meanwhile the desktops in the offices are now all a year older so once those companies get back to normal with everyone in the office (and that is going to be the new/old normal for the large majority of workplaces) they will need to order more to "catch up" with their normal replacement cycle. Or maybe drop the desktops and let their employees keep the laptops, but buy them all docking stations for the office so they can make use of the larger monitors already on their desks..

The PC industry has been shrinking for a decade, and component suppliers know that the trend line will go back to where it was. Expanding capacity to account for a single year or so with a huge spike in sales would be stupid. Thus we see shortages because they aren't going to build the capacity to ship 360M PCs a year when they know this was a one time spike and demand will return to 260M where it was before this all started then continue falling from there.
 

ThatBuzzkiller

Golden Member
Nov 14, 2014
1,052
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How are US sanctions creating the shortage? If anything there is LESS capacity from TSMC being used by Chinese companies, since e.g. Huawei can't get leading edge wafers from them. Arguably TSMC's capacity would be even more strained if there were no sanctions.

This would have happened regardless, and has more to do with supply chains being disrupted by covid (plant shutdowns, slower progress through ports/customs, etc.)
Just because Chinese chip designers can't use TSMC anymore doesn't mean that Chinese consumers (or any other non-western consumer) won't buy chips from foreign suppliers like AMD, Apple, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, or Samsung. Where in the hell would they supply their own semiconductor from ?

This entire situation wouldn't have happened if America itself wasn't so dumb about the following ...

1. Relying on chip production from Taiwan
2. Maintaining a semiconductor cartel
3. Sanctioning other potential sources like China

To top it all off, just about everyone on here is praising the downfall of Intel as well. These shortages are clearly a result of self inflicted wounds on America. Nobody took my foresight seriously before but look who's laughing right now when they chose to be clowns like the rest of America ...

Instead of letting capitalism run it's full course, America chose to prevent the Chinese equipping their own fabs with the necessary tools and depended on an unreliable partner like Taiwan to meet their demands rather than maintaining the technological lead they once had. Americans deserve every bit of the shortage they're now facing since they were too damn insecure about letting China produce their own semiconductors or are too lazy to source their own chips ... (If Americans want to keep blindsiding themselves then it's their own fault)
 

esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 8, 2000
21,602
3,272
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Stop with the politics talk. Next one(s) gets an infraction.
Make a p&n thread in p&n if you want to go down that road.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director
 
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fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,083
1,461
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Blows for sure. I'd love to replace my aging 2400G with a newer 7nm AM4 APU, but they're still nowhere to be found, even 3400G is OOS everywhere. At least my desktop is decently spec'ed and should last me into 2022-2023. I'm looking forward to return of cheap upgrades via open box sales at my local Microcenter.
 

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