TSMC 28nm versus GlobalFoundries 28nm

DanielNenni

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Mar 27, 2010
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Just blogged about it: Redefining the Foundry Model: TSMC versus GlobalFoundries

TSMC 28nm is 6 months ahead of GFI 28nm. The question is will AMD/ATI design to both TSMC 28nm and GFI 28nm? Or will Nvidia beat AMD/ATI to 28nm?

Guesses? Bets? Inside information?
 

Kuzi

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Sep 16, 2007
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TSMC will have 28nm risk production during this quarter? That means they should be able to release actual product by Q4 this year. I'll believe that when I see it :)
 

DanielNenni

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Mar 27, 2010
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TSMC will have 28nm risk production during this quarter? That means they should be able to release actual product by Q4 this year. I'll believe that when I see it :)
4551027252


GPU's will lag first silicon a quarter or two for sure. Here is the graphic from the TSMC Symposium last week.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/31537893@N04/4551027252/sizes/o/

28nm is a much publicized race. It will be close but my bet is on Nvidia and TSMC by a nanometer!





o

4551027252
 

Lonyo

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Aug 10, 2002
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4551027252


GPU's will lag first silicon a quarter or two for sure. Here is the graphic from the TSMC Symposium last week.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/31537893@N04/4551027252/sizes/o/

28nm is a much publicized race. It will be close but my bet is on Nvidia and TSMC by a nanometer!



o

4551027252
That picture shows 40nm as starting before/in January 2009. We all know how that went.

Even if Q4 is the first GPUs, 40nm high end production significantly lagged 40nm general production, by 5 months for ATI (HD4770 -> HD5870) and at least that much for NV. 28nm high end GPUs from TSMC might only appear in Q1 2011.
 

Kuzi

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Sep 16, 2007
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ATI had the 40nm 4770 GPU ready by late 2008, and the actual cards release was delayed by at least a quarter because of TSMC's horrendous 40nm process. It would be really impressive if TSMC could produce a high end 28nm GPU in Q1 2011. I'd say Q2 2011 at the earliest.

If ATI releases S.I late this year, then they probably would not release a 28nm N.I till late 2011. So TSMC may come out with a 28nm GPU before GF, but that will have more to do with the product cycle of ATI and NV than the process itself.
 

Schmide

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Mar 7, 2002
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28nm is a much publicized race. It will be close but my bet is on Nvidia and TSMC by a nanometer!

Shenanigans?

Unless the Fermi issues have seriously shaken things up at nVidia, you won't see them first out with silicon by any chance, it's just not their methodology. I can't think of a single time where they were first to process with any fabrication?
 

Lonyo

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Aug 10, 2002
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Shenanigans?

Unless the Fermi issues have seriously shaken things up at nVidia, you won't see them first out with silicon by any chance, it's just not their methodology. I can't think of a single time where they were first to process with any fabrication?

5800 Ultra?
 

dzoner

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Feb 21, 2010
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From the blog:

"Clearly TSMC is the leading foundry in all aspects of the business. The question is can TSMC continue in that role for another decade? I think the answer rests squarely on point #2."

If 'all aspects' includes CPU fabrication ... :colbert: ... or 22nm memory chips ... :rolleyes: ...

I'd put my money on GF for first production 28nm silicon. As a whole lot of defecting TSMC customers are.
 
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DanielNenni

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Mar 27, 2010
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From the blog:

"Clearly TSMC is the leading foundry in all aspects of the business. The question is can TSMC continue in that role for another decade? I think the answer rests squarely on point #2."

If 'all aspects' includes CPU fabrication ... :colbert: ... or 22nm memory chips ... :rolleyes: ...

I'd put my money on GF for first production 28nm silicon. As a whole lot of defecting TSMC customers are.

Virage Logic already has TSMC 28nm silicon and SRAM is a major part of GPU architecture. ATI uses Virage SRAM. I believe there are something like 300k+ instances on the 40nm ATI GPU product.

Nvidia is TSMC 28nm. Xilinx and Altera are TSMC 28nm. Qualcomm is both TSMC and GFI 28nm. My guess is that AMD/ATI will do both TSMC and GFI 28nm to cover capacity.

TSMC will have 2 Giga Fabs @ 100k wafers per month per fab available for 28nm. GFI has one Mega fab in Dresden @ 60k wafers per month and another Mega fab being built in NY.

I think the biggest GFI advantage is that they are not TSMC. Technology and capacity wise I still bet on TSMC.
 

dzoner

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Feb 21, 2010
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Virage Logic already has TSMC 28nm silicon and SRAM is a major part of GPU architecture. ATI uses Virage SRAM. I believe there are something like 300k+ instances on the 40nm ATI GPU product.

Nvidia is TSMC 28nm. Xilinx and Altera are TSMC 28nm. Qualcomm is both TSMC and GFI 28nm. My guess is that AMD/ATI will do both TSMC and GFI 28nm to cover capacity.

TSMC will have 2 Giga Fabs @ 100k wafers per month per fab available for 28nm. GFI has one Mega fab in Dresden @ 60k wafers per month and another Mega fab being built in NY.

I think the biggest GFI advantage is that they are not TSMC. Technology and capacity wise I still bet on TSMC.

I read and enjoy your blog, BUT... that TSMC piece reminded me stongly of a Theo Valich article ... stepping outside perceived boundries of objectivity is problematic in a tech blog.

Hence that siren call to rationalize that almost inevitably leads to planet tarbaby ...

1) "Virage Logic already has TSMC 28nm silicon" ---- that referenced article's title is "Virage Logic Announces Availability of a Full Suite of 28nm SiWare(TM) Memory Compilers and Rollout of SiWare(TM) Logic Libraries for Leading Edge Customers" and I saw this statement "In late 2009, Virage Logic announced its first 28nm test chip tapeouts", but what I DIDN'T see was any statement Virage Logic actually has 28nm test silicon in hand (which would require TSMC having an actual 28nm line up and running). Nor did I see that asserted in your blog. They may have it and you may know it, but I have not seen it written ... or you may be wishing into existence an event that has not yet materialized.

2) "and SRAM is a major part of GPU architecture. ATI uses Virage SRAM. I believe there are something like 300k+ instances on the 40nm ATI GPU product" ---- I didn't reference 28nm memory, I referenced 22nm memory, which Intel is currently sampling.

3) "Nvidia is TSMC 28nm. Xilinx and Altera are TSMC 28nm. Qualcomm is both TSMC and GFI 28nm. My guess is that AMD/ATI will do both TSMC and GFI 28nm to cover capacity." - so? I said several customers, specifically ARM based design, 28nm low power customers have climbed into bed with GFI ---- I assume they did so based on information I most definitely and you most likely do not have access to - and there is no more time critical~absolute cutting edge processor market that that one. There's a reason ALL the major ARM chip designers are climbing into GFI's bed.

4) "TSMC will have 2 Giga Fabs @ 100k wafers per month per fab available for 28nm. GFI has one Mega fab in Dresden @ 60k wafers per month and another Mega fab being built in NY." ---- My assertion was who will be FIRST to production silicon, not who will eventually win the volume race ... though I wouldn't count GFI out there, depending on TSMC's execution and Global Foundries new Saratoga facility is specifically designed to easily accomodate a tripling of capacity. If TSMC stumbles on 28nm and GF doesn't, that reserve capacity will probably be activated posthaste.

5) "I think the biggest GFI advantage is that they are not TSMC. Technology and capacity wise I still bet on TSMC." ---- which, if true, can only mean TSMC is in hot water with a number of dissatisfied customers ... at 28nm and below, I will bet on GFI on technology and call it a toss-up on capacity.

Then there's SEMATECH's EMI Partnership lauched at CNSE’s Albany NanoTech Complex (the proximity to which was a major factor in GFI's new fabrication facility location - that and proximity to IBM's headquarters), formed to share the costs of developing future node technologies between several industry leaders, notably including IBM and Toshiba, and which GFI will be a key player in, and which will be a V-E-R-Y formidable factor going forward in the fabrication industry. I have not read that TSMC is going to be a part of that effort.

That alone is going to make it very very tough for TSMC to successfully compete with GFI on future nodes.
 
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DanielNenni

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Mar 27, 2010
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I read and enjoy your blog, BUT... that TSMC piece reminded me stongly of a Theo Valich article ... stepping outside perceived boundries of objectivity is problematic in a tech blog.

That alone is going to make it very very tough for TSMC to successfully compete with GFI on future nodes.

Your points are certainly valid. Additional information:

I'm a Semi IP guy and worked for Virage so I have a good understanding of what is really going on behind the press releases.

GFI is paying IP companies to port which include ARM, Virage, Denali, etc... Not that there aren't technical advantages as well but it is also a financial relationship.

AMD bought ATI years ago but ATI continues to use TSMC, as do all GPU companies except Intel. GPU's are the worst yielding products for a foundry.

I'm in Taiwan this week and will see what I can dig up. Personally I'm rooting for GFI. A one horse race is less interesting and stifles innovation. When a foundry is at manufacturing capacity prices go up and the consumer pays. The semiconductor industry needs GFI.
 

Dark4ng3l

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Sep 17, 2000
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I think another effect of the whole TSMC/GF competition that is often overlooked is the increase in variability that we will get for future video cards. Right now since ATI and NV use the same processes it's basically a function of architecture(including how big the chip will be) and how fast you move to the next process. But now if both sides end up with different foundries you could have one side launching on a new node 6-9 months before the other side, massive yielding and binning differences, etc.

It seems to me that the risk involved for video card projects is going to be higher than what it is right now. That could lead to both sides being more cautious to avoid investing too much in those riskier projects or even cause one side to have massively uncompetitive products and fall out of the market.
 

Madcatatlas

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Feb 22, 2010
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Same 40nm process but still different architectur, does it need to get more different than that?!

Though different nodes, half nodes would be interesting. Could be a win or disappear scenario
 

rom0n

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Apr 13, 2010
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I don't know. If TSMC really comes out sooner, who says ATI has to stick with GF? They probably can split 50/50 between the two foundries (if the technology is similar). ATI has been and is the leader in using new fabrication processes. Look at 55nm. ATI had it for 3800 series a full year before Nvidia adopted for G92 derivatives. However, you could argue that GT300 would benefit from a smaller fabrication process than ATI, and Nvidia would spend a lot of money in that direction. So, it all depends on Nvidia and ATI to decide who is the first to 28nm.
 

DanielNenni

Banned
Mar 27, 2010
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Just blogged about it: Redefining the Foundry Model: TSMC versus GlobalFoundries

TSMC 28nm is 6 months ahead of GFI 28nm. The question is will AMD/ATI design to both TSMC 28nm and GFI 28nm? Or will Nvidia beat AMD/ATI to 28nm?

Guesses? Bets? Inside information?

I put up a new pic of a TSMC 28nm wafer on my blog. I also reviewed a book a friend of mine wrote on Design for Manufacture. The book cover however is a bit misleading........... The one above the wafer.:eek:

BOOK COVER FAIL!:D
 

dzoner

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Feb 21, 2010
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Your points are certainly valid. Additional information:

I'm a Semi IP guy and worked for Virage so I have a good understanding of what is really going on behind the press releases.

GFI is paying IP companies to port which include ARM, Virage, Denali, etc... Not that there aren't technical advantages as well but it is also a financial relationship.

AMD bought ATI years ago but ATI continues to use TSMC, as do all GPU companies except Intel. GPU's are the worst yielding products for a foundry.

I'm in Taiwan this week and will see what I can dig up. Personally I'm rooting for GFI. A one horse race is less interesting and stifles innovation. When a foundry is at manufacturing capacity prices go up and the consumer pays. The semiconductor industry needs GFI.

An additional, not inconsiderable, factor is the very deep pockets and very long term strategic thinking of GFI's majority stockholder, the ruling family of Abu Dhabi. For them GFI is a piece of a much larger and longer term strategic problem, successfully diversifying their economy for when that oil and gas eventually runs out, and being as Abu Dhabi sits on 10% of the worlds known oil reserves, they have the time and resouces to achieve that goal ... and they seem to be world class astute businessmen.

I rather suspect in a few years TSMC's time as King Fabrication Rat will be drawing to a close.
 
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