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Trump will withdraw US from Iran deal today, reinstate sanctions

K1052

K1052

Elite Member
President Trump told President Emmanuel Macron of France on Tuesday morning that he plans to announce the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal, according to a person briefed on the conversation.

Mr. Trump’s decision unravels the signature foreign policy achievement of his predecessor, Barack Obama, isolating the United States among its allies and leaving it at even greater odds with its adversaries in dealing with the Iranians.

The United States is preparing to reinstate all sanctions it had waived as part of the nuclear accord — and impose additional economic penalties as well, the person said.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html

Some speculation was that he wouldn't go this far but it seems that was in vain. The Europeans are not with us on this so how it plays out with them is an open question. Getting them to reimpose sanctions will be extraordinarily difficult if not impossible and most seem to acknowledge that Iran will again pursue nuclear weapons clandestinely. China and Russia will use this turn of events to their advantage.

Also interesting timing on breaking the word of the US while trying to ink a deal with NK who you bet is watching.
 
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K1052 said:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html

Some speculation was that he wouldn't go this far but it seems that was in vain. The Europeans are not with us on this so how this plays out with them is an open question. Getting them to reimpose sanctions will be extraordinarily difficult if not impossible and most seem to acknowledge that Iran will again pursue nuclear weapons clandestinely.

Also interesting timing on breaking the word of the US while trying to ink a deal with NK who you bet is watching.
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Iran was almost certainly already pursuing nuclear weapons clandestinely so it's moot; at best what the now dead agreement did was to allow inspectors to see the sites which Iran allowed them to see which is of value only if you've already decided you're not going to act against them anyway. The EU will continue trading with Iran just as they did before, the only question is whether Trump will prohibit those companies from doing business in the U.S. unless they sever their ties with Iran. The Germans and French would be happy to sell Iran parts for the ballistic missiles that Iran would promptly target at them so expecting them to impose sanctions again is wishful thinking.
 
To quote John Oliver, "10 > 0".

They've gone from not being able to build a bomb for ten years, to being able to start building one tomorrow. Obvious prelude to the war that maniac walrus Bolton wants to start.
 
glenn1 said:
Iran was almost certainly already pursuing nuclear weapons clandestinely so it's moot; at best what the now dead agreement did was to allow inspectors to see the sites which Iran allowed them to see which is of value only if you've already decided you're not going to act against them anyway. The EU will continue trading with Iran just as they did before, the only question is whether Trump will prohibit those companies from doing business in the U.S. unless they sever their ties with Iran. The Germans and French would be happy to sell Iran parts for the ballistic missiles that Iran would promptly target at them so expecting them to impose sanctions again is wishful thinking.
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There is zero credible proof that Iran violated the terms of the JCPOA. Even the Israelis couldn't find any or make some up that would be believable.
 
glenn1 said:
Iran was almost certainly already pursuing nuclear weapons clandestinely so it's moot; at best what the now dead agreement did was to allow inspectors to see the sites which Iran allowed them to see which is of value only if you've already decided you're not going to act against them anyway. The EU will continue trading with Iran just as they did before, the only question is whether Trump will prohibit those companies from doing business in the U.S. unless they sever their ties with Iran. The Germans and French would be happy to sell Iran parts for the ballistic missiles that Iran would promptly target at them so expecting them to impose sanctions again is wishful thinking.
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You're nuts. That agreement had the most stringent inspection regimen ever devised. To the point where the Iranian official who negotiated it was labeled a traitor by many over there.
 
glenn1 said:
Iran was almost certainly already pursuing nuclear weapons clandestinely so it's moot; at best what the now dead agreement did was to allow inspectors to see the sites which Iran allowed them to see which is of value only if you've already decided you're not going to act against them anyway. The EU will continue trading with Iran just as they did before, the only question is whether Trump will prohibit those companies from doing business in the U.S. unless they sever their ties with Iran. The Germans and French would be happy to sell Iran parts for the ballistic missiles that Iran would promptly target at them so expecting them to impose sanctions again is wishful thinking.
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If it was ‘almost certain’ then can you explain why the US intelligence community thinks the opposite? I’m quite interested to learn what the basis for this conclusion is.
 
China, alongside India, are the top two buyers of Iranian crude oil.

One of the world's fastest growing markets for oil consumption, China "needs the oil," and trade tensions with the U.S. would make Beijingeven less likely to support sanctions from Washington, said Victor Shum, vice president of the energy group at IHS Markit.

"With trade skirmishes between the U.S. and China and all kinds of political issues, I see the resistance from Chinese crude buyers to comply [to U.S. sanctions against Iran]," added Shum.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/08/china-a-major-iran-oil-importer-would-resist-any-us-sanctions.html
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"We are not worried about America's cruel decisions ... We are prepared for all scenarios and no change will occur in our lives next week," Rouhani said on a state media broadcast. "If we can get what we want from a deal without America, then Iran will continue to remain committed to the deal. What Iran wants is our interests to be guaranteed by its non-American signatories ... In that case, getting rid of America's mischievous presence will be fine for Iran."

In addition to the U.S. and Iran, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Germany are JCPOA signatories. Rouhani added Monday that if JCPOA participant nations "want to make sure that we are not after a nuclear bomb, we have said repeatedly that we are not and we will not be."
http://theweek.com/speedreads/771823/iran-says-stay-nuclear-deal-even-trump-quits
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Glenn’s made up argument against the deal aside, this is just a dumb idea regardless. The previous sanctions regime was effective because we got the rest of the world to join in. The US going it alone on renewed sanctions will have much, much less effect while undermining our efforts to negotiate in the future on nuclear issues.

If you’re Kim Jong-Un why would you ever make a deal with the US to denuclearize? I mean they might make a ‘deal’ with us but they will never adhere to it as why would they? The US just proved it isn’t a trustworthy deal maker.
 
glenn1 said:
Iran was almost certainly already pursuing nuclear weapons clandestinely so it's moot;
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Replace nuclear weapons with any of the following and the statement would be equally as true:
- infinity gauntlet and all necessary stones
- the blob
- Kim Kardashians secret for having a great ass
-the ark of the covenant
 
K1052 said:
There is zero credible proof that Iran violated the terms of the JCPOA. Even the Israelis couldn't find any or make some up that would be believable.
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Do you have reason to not believe Israel's huge dog and pony show regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program?
Is there a solid write up somewhere to detail the shade you want to throw on that "evidence"?
 
Traitor Trump, reducing America's standing in the world one stupid decision at a time. Can't wait to watch the rest of the world ignore us.
 
fskimospy said:
If you’re Kim Jong-Un why would you ever make a deal with the US to denuclearize? I mean they might make a ‘deal’ with us but they will never adhere to it as why would they? The US just proved it isn’t a trustworthy deal maker.
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Actually think this presents a better opening for NK to totally work over the US in the negotiations. We're gonna get shafted hardcore by NK/China in whatever deal gets done and they'll make sure it's irreversible.
 
Jaskalas said:
Do you have reason to not believe Israel's huge dog and pony show regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program?
Is there a solid write up somewhere to detail the shade you want to throw on that "evidence"?
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Israel presented evidence of something that everybody knew existed, hence the entire reason for the JCPOA in the first place, as proof that the Iranians had dealt in bad faith and an unsupported assertion similar to glenn's that they must have violated.
 
I think two things happened here. First was Trump took a position against this deal, and second is that anything he creates will be better. I would bet he is going to try and make NK his crowing accomplishment and then use that to try and do a different deal with Iran. As with most Trump things, this seems ill conceived with an amazing chance to blow up in not only his face, but the worlds.

Fingers crossed. You get what you elect.
 
K1052 said:
Actually think this presents a better opening for NK to totally work over the US in the negotiations. We're gonna get shafted hardcore by NK/China in whatever deal gets done and they'll make sure it's irreversible.
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Oh yes they will now demand irreversible concessions by the US for precisely this reason. What I mean though is that no matter what North Korea gets from us they will never honor the agreement in good faith. I mean they probably weren’t going to anyway but whatever small chance there was is gone now.
 
K1052 said:
Israel presented evidence of something that everybody knew existed, hence the entire reason for the JCPOA in the first place, as proof that the Iranians had dealt in bad faith and an unsupported assertion similar to glenn's that they must have violated.
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Israel wants Iran gone and will say and or do anything to accomplish this goal. Hell, they are even building a friendship with S.A.
 
realibrad said:
I think two things happened here. First was Trump took a position against this deal, and second is that anything he creates will be better. I would bet he is going to try and make NK his crowing accomplishment and then use that to try and do a different deal with Iran. As with most Trump things, this seems ill conceived with an amazing chance to blow up in not only his face, but the worlds.

Fingers crossed. You get what you elect.
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Why would Iran do any new deal with the US now, much less one that’s less favorable to them? We signed the previous deal when we had maximum leverage over Iran. That leverage is gone now.

It will be interesting to see what the Europeans are able to do without the US but we just gave Iran a get out of jail free card.
 
fskimospy said:
Oh yes they will now demand irreversible concessions by the US for precisely this reason. What I mean though is that no matter what North Korea gets from us they will never honor the agreement in good faith. I mean they probably weren’t going to anyway but whatever small chance there was is gone now.
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So we're all on a level playing field then, everyone is acknowledging that Iran or North Korea will never comply, the U.S. will withdraw, and the EU and other nations will do whatever is best for their pocketbooks. Now that the fig leaf bullshit is out of the way, by all means proceed to make another "deal."
 
fskimospy said:
Oh yes they will now demand irreversible concessions by the US for precisely this reason. What I mean though is that no matter what North Korea gets from us they will never honor the agreement in good faith. I mean they probably weren’t going to anyway but whatever small chance there was is gone now.
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A trifling concern against Trump's political needs.
 
If the other nations stick to the deal and so does Iran, major blow to the US. Just our standing and businesses suffer. What is interesting now is what everybody else is going to do.
 
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