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Trump secretly implementing herd immunity now. 2.1 million - 6.3 million dead Americans if run to completion

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Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,584
1,636
136
One of the facts in that video is that 5 of the top 10 states in the coronavirus count were won Trump in 2016. That is true if you look at just the number of cases.

If you look at the numbers on a per-capita basis, 9 of the top 10 states are red states.
They are, based on number of cases per 1M population.

1 Louisiana 34,165​
2 Florida 31,403​
3 Mississippi 30,891​
4 Arizona 29,079​
5 Alabama 28,911​
6 Georgia 28,167​
7 South Carolina 26,050​
8 Tennessee 25,931​
9 New York 24,709​
10 Texas 24,460​

Texas #10, and Iowa #11 are closing in and will likely push NY out of the top 10 within weeks, long before election day.

4 of the 5 states with the lowest per-capita infection rate are blue states.

Just a word of caution for these stats, as the lack of early testing, especially in NY, likely under counted the number of cases in the first months of the pandemic. It would also reason that other States were impacted by this. Not that this mitigates what your posts says, just something to keep in mind when we use items like this. It is what it is.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,318
3,434
136
Wow, I thought you left off California, but they still have 10,000 more deaths to go, to be in that sad club. And NY was blind sided, with little guidance and had the biggest virus dump due to being a world transportation hub, especially to Europe which is where the bulk of the infection arrived from. (Italy).
NY was really ground zero in the US. Two months ago, they probably would have probably been #1 on that list, but they got their act together, despite Trump, and will soon be out of the top 10.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,318
3,434
136
Just a word of caution for these stats, as the lack of early testing, especially in NY, likely under counted the number of cases in the first months of the pandemic. It would also reason that other States were impacted by this. Not that this mitigates what your posts says, just something to keep in mind when we use items like this. It is what it is.
Well you can second guess, throw shit like this out and see if it sticks, but you have to go with the numbers you have. You seem to be on the same page with Trump, testing is the problem. Don't test, the numbers will go down (never mind that people are still getting sick and dying).

Really a lame attempt to paint an orange turd in a better light.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,318
3,434
136
I take issue with Maddow's numbers.

She is using the total number of cases vs. the body count. That ignores those still sick that will eventually die from the virus.

You have to look at the total number of cases that have resolved, either by surviving or dying.

There are 6.9 million known cases in the US
approximately 4.1 million have recovered.
and 202K have died.

Thus the actual mortality rate for RESOLVED cases is 4.9%

Now to continue, if the goal is for 65% of the population to become infected to develop the herd immunity, which is 215 million people, and once every case "resolves" that would mean that Trump really intends for 10,500,000 Americans to die.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
19,648
1,265
126
This video is perfection. He puts it into words PERFECTLY with how I feel about everything going on right now. Thankfully in my state you don't have to beg anyone to do anything since we're full of educated people and not a bunch of idiots.

Saw that last night and I agree, the exasperation is tenable, we could/should be well on the way to squashing this
thing and with the flying fucking turd in charge we are fucked. The rest of the world accepts/understands mask wearing
except the US and we are suffering accordingly. Might be important that the people who are dying are predominately old/low income/minorities make me think Trump has no issue with 6-7 million people dying.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,318
3,434
136
"Theories"?, it's his OWN WORDS calling for "herd meantality" (herd immunity), he's taking advise from complete morons
and calling their opinions "fact".
Did you not see the sign "Do Not Feed the Trolls" It's what they thrive on.

As Mark Twain said: “Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.”
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,584
1,636
136
Well you can second guess, throw shit like this out and see if it sticks, but you have to go with the numbers you have. You seem to be on the same page with Trump, testing is the problem. Don't test, the numbers will go down (never mind that people are still getting sick and dying).

Really a lame attempt to paint an orange turd in a better light.
Not really. No one is second guessing anything. Its actually bringing in more facts of the debacle. Just because it does not meet your needs for it, does not make your perspective the only one. Testing was the problem in the beginning. You seem to forget that. That was the tRumpanzee’s fault too. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielcassady/2020/07/21/antibody-tests-show-actual-coronavirus-cases-may-be-drastically-higher-than-previously-reported/ ). The article mentioned that the actual infection rate was higher, as there was substantially more community spread than anyone thought.

Maybe you need to settle down and try to understand the data. Just because it meets your narrative does not means it 100% accurate. Next thing you know you’ll be spotting off about how the polls are all wrong. Get over yourself. Nothing like putting words in someone’s mouth. Try again skippy, you seem to be all wet.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,584
1,636
136
I take issue with Maddow's numbers.

She is using the total number of cases vs. the body count. That ignores those still sick that will eventually die from the virus.

You have to look at the total number of cases that have resolved, either by surviving or dying.

There are 6.9 million known cases in the US
approximately 4.1 million have recovered.
and 202K have died.

Thus the actual mortality rate for RESOLVED cases is 4.9%

Now to continue, if the goal is for 65% of the population to become infected to develop the herd immunity, which is 215 million people, and once every case "resolves" that would mean that Trump really intends for 10,500,000 Americans to die.
Your rates do not work that way. Since the number of infections is grossly under calculated, your numbers are even more inaccurate. You cannot look at just the resolved cases, as 80% or more are asymptomatic. If you then multiplied your 4.9% by 20% you would be much more accurate. This ties to what she did. Your number would then be (4.9% x 20%) .98%. That tracks with the rate most think this virus has. BTW, that is 100 times more deadly that the “most strenuous flu,” which is typically around .0001%.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,318
3,434
136
Your rates do not work that way. Since the number of infections is grossly under calculated, your numbers are even more inaccurate. You cannot look at just the resolved cases, as 80% or more are asymptomatic. If you then multiplied your 4.9% by 20% you would be much more accurate. This ties to what she did. Your number would then be (4.9% x 20%) .98%. That tracks with the rate most think this virus has. BTW, that is 100 times more deadly that the “most strenuous flu,” which is typically around .0001%.
It is easy, actually a cheap shot to criticize my figures without showing anything factual information to validate your position.

Where are your actual calculations, based on factual information? I went with what is presented here, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I will be glad to look at your numbers, when you provide them, along with links to the sources of your data.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,584
1,636
136
It is easy, actually a cheap shot to criticize my figures without showing anything factual information to validate your position.

Where are your actual calculations, based on factual information? I went with what is presented here, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I will be glad to look at your numbers, when you provide them, along with links to the sources of your data.
Here you go, please read this:


Positive tests and the true number of cases are two different numbers. In order to get “true” number of the total of who is infected, the testing must be quick, then contact tracing then tests, etc. You have to reach a relevant percentage of the population in testing before you can rely on these figures. It basic statistical concepts. You could do a random sampling of people across the US, which you could then apply to the over population that can give you the statistical relevant data to calculate these rates. Testing matters. Until we know a better idea of the number of asymptomatic cases, it is all speculation. It’s the data we have, but it is not reliable. The testing debacle lead to this. Testing is the key to get over this. Additionally, we have not even discussed the number of tests in these figures from people who have been tested multiple times and have either multiple positives or multiple negatives. There is then the false positives and negatives. The testing is a mess; therefore, the data produced must be eyed with some skepticism. It holds some relevance, but it is not “true.”
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,318
3,434
136
Here you go, please read this:


Positive tests and the true number of cases are two different numbers. In order to get “true” number of the total of who is infected, the testing must be quick, then contact tracing then tests, etc. You have to reach a relevant percentage of the population in testing before you can rely on these figures. It basic statistical concepts. You could do a random sampling of people across the US, which you could then apply to the over population that can give you the statistical relevant data to calculate these rates. Testing matters. Until we know a better idea of the number of asymptomatic cases, it is all speculation. It’s the data we have, but it is not reliable. The testing debacle lead to this. Testing is the key to get over this. Additionally, we have not even discussed the number of tests in these figures from people who have been tested multiple times and have either multiple positives or multiple negatives. There is then the false positives and negatives. The testing is a mess; therefore, the data produced must be eyed with some skepticism. It holds some relevance, but it is not “true.”
OK, I see your point... thus I will correct my post, with the acknowledgement that there are untested (diagnosed) asymptotic cases, and there are false positives and negatives that may skew the numbers to an unknown extend, combined with a cluster fuck testing system.

My corrections in red:
I take issue with Maddow's numbers.

She is using the total number of diagnosed cases vs. the body count. That ignores those still sick that will eventually die from the virus.

You have to look at the total number of diagnosed cases that have resolved, either by surviving or dying.

There are 6.9 million known cases in the US
approximately 4.1 million have recovered.
and 202K have died.

Thus the actual fatality rate for diagnosed and RESOLVED cases is 4.9%

Now to continue, if the goal is for 65% of the population to become infected to develop the herd immunity, which is 215 million people, and once every case "resolves" that would mean that Trump really intends for 10,500,000 Americans to die."
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
20,014
11,339
136
The main issue I take with the thread title is why put down to malice that which can be easily explained by abject incompetence? I don’t think this administration could keep its shit together long to actively work to make the impact of the virus work. They have failed at so many basic governmental functions and been forced to back track it’s far more likely that it is just morons.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,584
1,636
136
OK, I see your point... thus I will correct my post, with the acknowledgement that there are untested (diagnosed) asymptotic cases, and there are false positives and negatives that may skew the numbers to an unknown extend, combined with a cluster fuck testing system.

My corrections in red:
There was no reason to correct. There are various opinions. I appreciate the willingness to listen. The biggest issue with a novel virus like this is the unknown. As information rolls in, it our nature to make decisions on the it, but it’s not complete. In this case, hindsight is not really 2020, it’s 2021 or 2022.
 

alien42

Lifer
Nov 28, 2004
11,936
1,896
126
The main issue I take with the thread title is why put down to malice that which can be easily explained by abject incompetence? I don’t think this administration could keep its shit together long to actively work to make the impact of the virus work. They have failed at so many basic governmental functions and been forced to back track it’s far more likely that it is just morons.
before the Woodward tapes, i might have agreed with that assessment. unfortunately, we now know Trump was well aware of the reality of Covid-19, both the danger and transmissibility, and that he intentionally played it down and continues to do so purely due to his re-election chances. he has the blood of well over 100,000 Americans on his hands.
 

twjr

Senior member
Jul 5, 2006
627
207
116
Yea, it's really nice to have sane state government in the pandemic crisis. Unfortunately, we aren't allowed to close our borders.
Forgive me for my ignorance but why can't the states close their borders to each other?
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,670
13,748
136
Always amazing how much folks here have gone down the shitter with their conspiracy theories. View attachment 29978
It's perfectly obvious that Trump has no intention of doing things in a way that reduce the spread of the pandemic. If he did, he wouldn't be rallying like it's 2016. He wouldn't encourage the maskless morons to congregate in tight groups cheering at the top of their lungs at various locations all over the country. Like Trump said, he's not skeered because he keeps his distance from his blithering fans who accept his invitation to pack in tight to show their devotion. It's the only way he knows to win the election & that's all that matters.

If you can't see how horribly wrong that really is then you are truly lost.

 

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