Take it from me, don't doubt the polls.
One big possible wrench in the polls is the snowstorm predicted to start at the same time as the caucus. 5" to 9" of snow is predicted right now over much of Iowa, but it is still a day or two too early to really know. One of the weather model predictions was as high as 40", but that is likely to be an outlier.
The snow may end up being nothing. But if it comes a bit earlier than predicted and/or is a bit heavier than predicted, then the snow could play a massive role.
In Iowa, you must go to the caucus for hours and your whole evening is lost. So, it is a high barrier for many people. Add in the inability to get around in snow and that barrier is even higher. Those who want to caucus but don't normally do it may stay home. These are the people Trump is counting on.
Sanders has a similar problem. His strategy hinges a lot on getting college students to drive to their home town on a weekday evening, caucus, and return for school the next day. For Sanders, dominating in the college cities and losing everywhere else doesn't help him. He just needs to win by 1 vote in each caucus, not by a landslide. So spreading his support around the state is what he needs most. If there is snow, Sanders' strategy is toast.
Basically, polls are unreliable in caucus states and even more unreliable when the weather is nasty.
I came in here to make that same comment.
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