Transhuman Tech, how likely are these? (and technological singularity in 2050)

[Maverick2002]

Have a read through this: http://www.singularity2050.com/2007/08/top-ten-transhu.html

What do you think about the possibility of these (that is, the ones that aren't already at some point of development)?

This interested me a lot as well (actuarial escape velocity), though I have my doubts about it happening by 2050: http://www.singularity2050.com/2008/03/actuarial-escap.html

In general, what do you think is the possibility of hitting a technological singularity by 2050 or so?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

 

[Kommander_Kink]

You are being over optimistic, we won't reach that till 300 years from now, also we humans have self-aware conscious, something computers will never have.

 

[Sp12]

Seeing as it currently takes a supercomputer to simulate the 300 neurons in a worm's brain, I think it'll be a while before we have mind-uploading and computer-consciousness.

Not that it won't happen, just not in my lifetime (at least for the general public to have access to).

 

[firewolfsm]

Not true. Half a rat's brain has already been simulated by Blue Brain. On IBM's Blue Gene computer, already old tech. By 2030 Carmack (iirc his name) expects to simulate an entire human brain, in high (molecular) resolution no less. From their early tests, which generated their own alpha, beta, patters, and visual maps (our brains make physical representations of our field of view in striate cortex). They do expect the brain to learn language, and think like a human. From there, every two years, it's intelligence will double. Singularity by 2050 is conservative. It's meaning for society is perhaps exaggerated though.

Also, electrodes with 100 or so pins have already been developed for quadriplegics to control prosthetic limbs. After increasing that to the tends of thousands and implanting at a young age, our brains should have direct access to the abilities of computers. From that position our cognition should improve dramatically with access to new resources. Should also be done before 2050.

And our self-awareness is just a matter of our brain complexity, most animals are not self-aware, just as our computers are not currently self-aware. Self-awareness is simply the will behind our perception and action, we can most certainly program a calculating force behind a mobile, autonomous computer, that can sense, visually and otherwise, and react.

 

[PsiStar]

I can't take the time to study or think about several of these subjects, but a part of me says that there is psuedo-science mixed with real science in an attempt to give legitimacy to the psuedo.

The real is possibly and possibly currently, Gene Therapy. But this is mostly opinion from what I believe I have read in recent-ish news.

 

[Gibsons]

I don't think that article merits a lot of thought. Or took a lot of thought for that matter.

Just to stick with something I know a little about, the 'gene therapy' part. That's something of a holy grail of molecular biology. At this point we're still learning how to read and just starting to learn how to write. Granted we read a much faster than before, but that doesn't mean we understand what we've read.

The line about sequencing genomes being available for a fairly low cost is about right, it's surprisingly cheap even now. But in terms of really applying that information... we're using a feather quill and an inkwell, we need Word 2030.