Tom's Hardware Guide: Financial Analysts Say Intel Killed the Discrete Graphics Card

[blastingcap]

Discuss.

http://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-ivy-bridge-cpu-gpu-nvidia,15484.html

Intel has most certainly created some tension between integrated graphics, good-enough-graphics and discrete graphics cards with the introduction of Ivy Bridge.

The view of the financial community has been generally very positive, which is reflected in Intel's stock price that is currently trading in the $28 neighborhood and is hitting 7-year highs. With the past 12 months, Intel's market cap has increased from about $110 billion to about $142 billion.

Financial background about Intel released today by financial analyst firm Five Star Equities confirms in that sentiment and indicates that the financial community has, for the first in more than 5 years, high expectations in Intel's opportunity in the chip market. Five Star Equities states that Ivy Bridge essentially kills the discrete graphics card because the integrated graphics of the CPU would be good enough for 95 percent of computer users.

"There is a very small market of people who seek out high-performance graphics cards, mostly comprised of hardcore gamers," the report reads. "The improved graphics provided by the Ivy Bridge chips will likely satisfy the needs of the average consumer."

The report also quotes industry analyst Jack Gold, who said that "extreme gamers who want very powerful graphics cards are in a niche market already, and it's shrinking." Gold continued and noted that Nvidia may be in trouble, "because their graphics chip market is falling off faster than their mobile chip market."

 

[BoberFett]

Every new generation of Intel video claims it's the end of discrete graphics. It hasn't happened yet. Somebody is still going to have to develop powerful hardware to run the multi-billion dollar video game industry.

I just bought my daughter a low end laptop and I specifically avoided Intel because Intel integrated video is shite. She ended an AMD instead. It's not a powerhouse, but it runs games far better than Intel HD garbage.

 

[blastingcap]

Every new generation of Intel video claims it's the end of discrete graphics. It hasn't happened yet. Somebody is still going to have to develop powerful hardware to run the multi-billion dollar video game industry.

Already done. New consoles are supposedly going to use something like HD6670 GPUs despite launching in late 2013 at earliest.

http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/...nals-a-sea-change-in-the-console-industry.ars

 

[soccerballtux]

who is this financial analyst and why should we listen to him? Because his title sounds important?

 

[blastingcap]

Can we talk about the substance of these analyst opinions please, rather than go after him personally?

 

[3DVagabond]

There's the need to buy something and the want. Intel can maybe do away with the need. Buses could do away with the need for cars. Do you want to take the bus? Nope. Do you want a nice shiny new car? Most people do. Good enough is never the end all.

 

[Dice144]

I look at the site it was posted on and disregard it.

 

[Zebo]

I thought consoles were supposed to kill them? Guess they are on attack from all sides - meanwhile, in the real world, you can't find a GTX 680 in stock.

 

[RussianSensation]

Discuss.

"There is a very small market of people who seek out high-performance graphics cards, mostly comprised of hardcore gamers," the report reads. "The improved graphics provided by the Ivy Bridge chips will likely satisfy the needs of the average consumer."

1) There is a small market for high-performance graphics = true (Groover found some data and only 4% of GPUs > $250 comprised discrete GPU sales).
^ We've known this for a long time. The gamer sweet spot is the $100-200 discrete GPUs such as GTX560/560Ti/HD5770, etc.

2) IVB is good enough for average consumer = true, but they are not gamers who drive millions of dollars of games sales on Steam/Origin.

Here is the missing link = All the other gamers who find IVB inadequate but won't necessarily buy GTX680/690/HD7970:

PC Gaming Hardware Market to Hit $23.6 Billion in 2012 Says Jon Peddie Research

In its 33 country analysis of the gamer market, JPR has found very strong demand in the BRIC countries for systems, accessories, and upgrades approaching $4.7 billion in 2012 and growing to $7.7 billion by 2015.

Steam's sales record numbers last year suggest the PC gaming market is thriving more than ever.

This guy is underestimating the growth of gamers who will play games on laptops using discrete mobile GPUs. Also, he is underestimating additional graphical demands that are on the horizon once next generation of consoles launch. GPU market may be stagnating on the desktop right now, especially since we are at the tail end of a 7-year-old console generation where upgrading isn't necessary. Let's wait until next generation gaming begins in 2014+ and see what happens. I want to see IVB play Crysis 3, Metro 2034, etc.

These are the same analysts that don't understand when Intel sells a CPU, it automatically sells a GPU, negating every additional discrete GPU sale. For example, I have an Intel CPU (which means I have an Intel GPU). So for market share, Intel just gained a GPU and my Discrete GPU got 'offset' by the Intel GPU I do not use. In other words, unless I start buying 2 GPUs every time I upgrade my system, Intel will magically keep selling me 1 Intel GPU and gaining overall GPU market share. So when I get Haswell, it'll again give Intel market share it shouldn't get!!

 

[RussianSensation]

The only way to shut these analysts up is with hard facts. They are noobs if they think all these people are playing games on integrated APUs. Yes, a lot of people are satisfied with gaming on APUs such as Llano, Trinity will be great and so on. However, NV and AMD have both noted that discrete GPU growth will be primarily in the notebook/laptop space (I am currently too lazy to look up discrete GPUs for mobile vs. desktop right now - maybe someone else can link it).

The PC gaming market is fairly large. As Jon Peddie noted above, the PC gaming hardware market will already hit $24B overall. Of course that's not just GPUs, but still. People don't buy gaming keyboards, aftermarket Corsair cases, large SSDs, high-end Razor mice, self-enclosed watercooling kits to max out games on IVB GPUs.

If the PC hardware market is dying, then....

1) Why does Alienware launch 3 different models of gaming laptops with discrete gaming GPUs?

2) Why do various companies from Logitech to Razer to Cooler Master, etc. continue to release gaming mice?

3) Why did Corsair move away from just being a memory manufacturer and start to actively expand its product line to include after market cases, fans, self-enclosed water cooling systems, gaming PSUs?

4) Why are high-end gaming laptops in such huge demand that Razer's $2,800 Blade sold out in 30 minutes at launch despite having a crappy GT555M in it? Oh because Intel's IVB has made discrete GPUs irrelevant...right.

US

Scope: Platforms: Social networks, Casual websites, Mobile devices, MMO games, Console games, PC/Mac boxed, PC/Mac download
Active gamers in the US: 145.000.000
Share of active gamers that spends money on games: 43%
Estimated 2011 spend on games in US: $21.600.000.000
Time spent on games: 215.000.000 hours per day
Gamers per platforms:
Social networks: 76 Million
Casual websites: 115 Million
Mobile devices: 75 Million
MMO games: 52 Million
Console games: 82 Million
PC/Mac boxed: 71 Million
PC/Mac download: 73 Million
Fun facts:
1.700.000 Americans prefer prepaid game cards
29% of internet time spent on online games
3.900.000 paying social gamers reached by CNN
70% of playstation 3 players also play MMO Games
2% of 200 data topics used for this visual
690.000 paying female mobile gamers like fishing
http://newzoo.com/ENG/1493-Home.html

Europe

^ That was in 2010 and we know PC gaming market has grown even more last year.

 

[jpiniero]

There were plenty of reasons to buy discrete cards for non-gaming reasons. Higher 2D resolutions, multiple monitors (Ivy supports 3 monitors!), flash acceleration. Intel's pretty much fixed all of that.

 

[Concillian]

Went to a site today that had no EVGA GTX680s in stock. They had 400+ "on order" from their source and over 200 on backorder.

That's at the high end, which should be pretty low volume.

Yep, discrete graphics are dead.

Good enough for 95% still leaves a lot of potential revenue / profit for AMD and nVidia.

 

[RussianSensation]

There were plenty of reasons to buy discrete cards for non-gaming reasons. Higher 2D resolutions, multiple monitors (Ivy supports 3 monitors!), flash acceleration. Intel's pretty much fixed all of that.

What's that have anything to do with actual trends for PC gaming hardware and discrete GPUs? Honda Civic gets me from point A to point B just as safe as a Ferrari 458 does. Please forecast the sales of Ferrari 458 for me. Here is their argument: "Because the market for $300k supercars is so small, I conclude that the market for all sports cars has been made obsolete by the Honda Civic because it's good enough for the average car owner." Amazing depth and insight.....:hmm:

You have to look at the overall market trends, regardless if IVB has made certain features more accessible/standard. The presence of Honda Civic and extreme high priced supercars doesn't automatically mean that all the in-between sports cars will become irrelevant to consumers. Just like the presence of IVB is good enough for the average consume and that the market for enthusiast $500-$1,000 GTX680/GTX690 is small, it doesn't mean that all the other desktop and mobile discrete GPUs will be irrelevant.

More credible and industry respected sources contradict the statements made by the analysts in Tom's Hardware article:

"Jon Peddie Research estimates there are 54 million Performance and Enthusiast class PC gamers worldwide, with new entrants and console converts bolstering this to 72 million by 2015.

The recession is winding down and the Enthusiast and Performance class PC gamers (those who spend over $1000 on equipment) have spoken...with their wallets. With chips from AMD, Intel, and Nvidia, new machines from Alienware, HP, Lenovo and others, components and accessories from companies like ASUS, EVGA, Corsair, Logitech, and MadCatz, and new games in the pipe like Far Cry 3, BioShock Infinite, Crysis 3, ARMA 3, rFactor 2, and Interstellar Marines, the financial engine of the world's most elite gaming platform is fully fueled and will drive the global market to $32 billion by 2015."

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/pc-gaming-hardware-market-to-hit-23.6-billion-in-2012/

Game, set, match. The analysts have no credibility against JPR and places like NewZoo. They are just upset they didn't buy Intel's shares 5 years ago and are venting about how awesome IVB is. They don't know anything about the enthusiast gaming PC market. The fact that it took them 5 years to realize Intel's stock is worth owning shows they don't know much. And once again they are dead wrong regarding PC gaming hardware trends because notebook/laptop PC gaming is on the rise despite the tail-end of 7-year-old console generation. That likely means a strong catalyst / wave of GPU upgrades in 2014-2015 once next generation consoles are in full swing.

 

[Destiny]

some of these analysts have taken an opposite postion to what they are saying sometimes to benefit from movement of equity due to their FUD reports... they or their colleages will also take a counter position and benefit from the swings due to emotions... if they look at cold hard data like you have, you know they are just throwing FUD...

Analysts are never 100% correct, they have access to the same information/data that the public and you and I have and throw their own "educated" opinion... if they have inside information they would be thrown in jail for having insider information and corporate espionage...

 

[RussianSensation]

some of these analysts have taken an opposite postion to what they are saying sometimes to benefit from movement of equity due to their FUD reports... they or their colleages will also take a counter position and benefit from the swings due to emotions... if they look at cold hard data like you have, you know they are just throwing FUD...

I think it's unreasonable to expect an analyst to constantly predict something with high accuracy but to make blanket statements that discrete GPUs have been killed by Intel's APU is premature.

They aren't even accounting for the fact that we may see 4K-8K screens become mainstream in the next 5-10 years. Maybe in 20-30 years from now, the discrete GPU will be a very niche market but it's nowhere near being killed off just yet. I think discrete GPUs will be under threat when we won't be able to tell the difference between graphics and reality. Basically if an integrated GPU can produce what essentially are life-like graphics, then the argument could be presented that discrete GPUs are not necessary since how can you produce more life-like graphics than already life-like graphics? However, I am guessing we are at least 20 years away from life-like graphics. Before we get there, I would wager that rasterization will be replaced by ray-tracing or some other technique. There is still plenty of life left for discrete GPUs.

 

[blastingcap]

The only way to shut these analysts up is with hard facts. They are noobs if they think all these people are playing games on integrated APUs.

Yes I think the financial analyst is several years premature with his prediction. Nevertheless, it should be obvious that Intel is a major threat to AMD and NVIDIA in the low-to-midrange video area, and it's only going to get worse.

I was making recommendations in D3 threads and people kept saying get an A8 or whatever, and that's now. That's ALREADY happening NOW. In 2012.

What will 2013 and beyond bring? Well, Haswell will have 40 EU vs. 16 on Ivybridge. Apparently the Haswell EUs will be enhanced and I bet the 22nm process will be better then as well, allowing for higher clockspeeds, so in reality it's more like a tripling of EUs in terms of effective horsepower. You need memory bandwidth to go with that, and if Crystalwell lives up to the rumors, it will get it. My rough back of the envelope estimate for Haswell's top-end variant's performance is something like a GTS 250 or HD 4850, depending on how linearly Haswell's GPU scales up. If the memory constraint is too big or Intel's 22nm process doesn't improve or whatnot, we're probably still looking at something like a 9600GT level of performance in all likelihood. That's pretty freaking good for a "free" GPU.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/5771/the-intel-ivy-bridge-core-i7-3770k-review/16 (showing Ivy Bridge as about 75% as fast as a HD5570; Haswell theoretically should be about 225% as fast as a HD5570)
http://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/Sapphire/HD_5570/30.html (showing that a HD5570 is about half the speed of a GTS 250 or HD 4850)

Granted, that's for the top-end Haswell and I'm sure they will have lower-spec'd embedded GPUs as well, but give it a few more years and even the lower-end Intel CPUs will have GTS 250/HD4850-level performance.

Then consider that the next-gen consoles are apparently using HD 6670 GPUs or the equivalent thereof (http://arstechnica.com/gaming/news/...nals-a-sea-change-in-the-console-industry.ars), and even if you figure that the effective speed is more like a HD 6770 (coding for the metal and not Direct3D API), that's not that much more than a HD 4850. So by the time the next-gen consoles are widely available, we may have top-end Intel CPUs with embedded GPUs that aren't far behind the console GPUs.

Any guesses as to what gamedevs will code for, then? I suspect they will target HD6770 level performance or so. Only if they feel like it will they give higher textures and such to PC gamers. (Some may argue that they ALREADY do this.)

And if that happens, what incentive will people have to upgrade? Consolification creates a cycle of apathy between hardware and software. In short, the rise of Intel's GPU is already eating away the discrete GPU market from the bottom up, and that trend may pick up additional steam with Haswell and future Intel and AMD APUs.

RE: 4K+, don't hold your breath on that. Also, re: lifelike graphics, it's grown increasingly obvious to me that the limiting factor is software. It takes $$$ to make all those nice textures which is why I started a thread a long time ago asking if it'd be better if all the gamedevs pooled resources together to make a library of truly realistic textures for everything, rather than independently trying to re-invent the wheel with much smaller resources. So long as we have fragmented game development, I doubt we will see a major increase in realism/life-like graphics.

However, your comment about Intel's inflated GPU market share is correct if the stats people do not take that into account. Bummer.

 

[Mars999]

Problem is Intel's GPU still suck for IQ and driver support on all fronts... Until they get that up to par I wouldn't use one for my main GPU....

 

[amenx]

Never underestimate Intel. Those who laugh at their IGP brings to mind those who laughed at the P4. IGP perf dramatically increased with IB and sill see a similar big jump in Haswell. Of course by then Trinity will be here but I would place my bets on Intel coming out on top within next 2-3 years. Their billions in RD vs AMDs peanuts will see to that.

 

[Jaydip]

Its true but sad that discrete graphics is a shrinking market but we can only blame ourselves for that not Intel.

 

[3DVagabond]

Its true but sad that discrete graphics is a shrinking market but we can only blame ourselves for that not Intel.

Why? What did you or I do?

 

[ShintaiDK]

Its pretty natural development.

While discrete cards wont die off tomorrow. They will die off in a somewhat near future. All the lowend discrete cards are already dead so to say. It wont be long before the entry discrete card is 100$.

Biggest performance penalty for IGPs is the memory bandwidth. However both AMD and Intel dabble there with solutions. Intels IGP is directly connected to the L3. And might add an onpackage buffer as well. AMD has before dabbled with sideport memory.

Personally I would like to see us change to 256bit serial memory modules with DDR4. Then discrete cards would really get in danger.

 

[Jaydip]

Why? What did you or I do?

We bought crappy intel hd graphics

 

[Anarchist420]

The GPU integrated into IB looks like it sucks to me. I don't think that nvidia has anything to worry about on the hardware side for quite some time.

I do agree with another poster about bandwidth, as that is the biggest issue with integrated graphics, on the performance side at least. Hopefully the successor to DDR3 will fix it.

Still, nvidia's image quality (other than lossy texture compression which is used by everyone) is hard to beat. Their drivers shouldn't be (for the most part anyway).

 

[Jaydip]

The only way to shut these analysts up is with hard facts. They are noobs if they think all these people are playing games on integrated APUs. Yes, a lot of people are satisfied with gaming on APUs such as Llano, Trinity will be great and so on. However, NV and AMD have both noted that discrete GPU growth will be primarily in the notebook/laptop space (I am currently too lazy to look up discrete GPUs for mobile vs. desktop right now - maybe someone else can link it).

The PC gaming market is fairly large. As Jon Peddie noted above, the PC gaming hardware market will already hit $24B overall. Of course that's not just GPUs, but still. People don't buy gaming keyboards, aftermarket Corsair cases, large SSDs, high-end Razor mice, self-enclosed watercooling kits to max out games on IVB GPUs.

If the PC hardware market is dying, then....

1) Why does Alienware launch 3 different models of gaming laptops with discrete gaming GPUs?

2) Why do various companies from Logitech to Razer to Cooler Master, etc. continue to release gaming mice?

3) Why did Corsair move away from just being a memory manufacturer and start to actively expand its product line to include after market cases, fans, self-enclosed water cooling systems, gaming PSUs?

4) Why are high-end gaming laptops in such huge demand that Razer's $2,800 Blade sold out in 30 minutes at launch despite having a crappy GT555M in it? Oh because Intel's IVB has made discrete GPUs irrelevant...right.

US

Scope: Platforms: Social networks, Casual websites, Mobile devices, MMO games, Console games, PC/Mac boxed, PC/Mac download
Active gamers in the US: 145.000.000
Share of active gamers that spends money on games: 43%
Estimated 2011 spend on games in US: $21.600.000.000
Time spent on games: 215.000.000 hours per day
Gamers per platforms:
Social networks: 76 Million
Casual websites: 115 Million
Mobile devices: 75 Million
MMO games: 52 Million
Console games: 82 Million
PC/Mac boxed: 71 Million
PC/Mac download: 73 Million
Fun facts:
1.700.000 Americans prefer prepaid game cards
29% of internet time spent on online games
3.900.000 paying social gamers reached by CNN
70% of playstation 3 players also play MMO Games
2% of 200 data topics used for this visual
690.000 paying female mobile gamers like fishing
http://newzoo.com/ENG/1493-Home.html

Europe

^ That was in 2010 and we know PC gaming market has grown even more last year.

Man are u a financial analyst by any chance?U seem to have a hell lot of understanding about market :thumbsup:

 

[MisterMac]

If you read the article - it does hint at futurewise.
So panties untwist please.

The problem is from a Number perspective "Jack Gold" is absolutely 100% correct.
99% in 5 years will most likely be IGP of one kind or another.


However that's without defining groups and looking at the overall picture.
If there's 100 million "graphical users" in 2000 and 300 million 2010.
80 million used discrete graphics in 2000, 125 does it in 2010 - numbers will look completely messed up.

Overall market share has fallen, raw numbers have gone up.
Analysts look at overall market always - because it defines where MOST of the money is. Nothing's wrong with that - as long as you don't take it as a Trend for the individual areas of the whole market.

It's all about perspective.
Something toms nor hardware analyst doesn't give - or explain.
Your allowed to use your brain when reading news articles, ya know?

The question is obviously - now that ze Blue Giant is investing in GPU needs.
How long will it take them to catch up?

Haswell well set precedent - if it's multiplicative with increases each generation just half of haswell...well...you do the amth