b0mbrman,
I don't know exactly (and the criteria vary) but in most of the major sports, the success of your team is a very major consideration. In other words, it's not enough to be a young Jordan on a losing team.
I like Tim Duncan a lot, and he's more or less deserving this year, but this just gives Shaq a bit more motivation to dominate the Spurs in the paint. Look for him to be real aggressive in game 3. With Robinson continuing to be a hurt wuss, the Spurs better pray Shaq or Kobe goes down with a major injury.
I honestly thought the Spurs had a small chance this time (since the Lakers aren't dominant like last year) but watching them play yesterday, I realized they simply don't have the talent to stack up. Generally speaking, you need two bona-fide stars (and a team of role players) to win it all. Right now, Duncan is the only clear star on that team.
On another note, since the Mavs don't play defense, I seriously don't see them surviving either Sacramento (or potentially L.A.), even though they seem to be a trendy underdog pick right now.