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There is a button

BudAshes

Lifer
Jul 20, 2003
12,565
1,481
126
and if click it you get fifty thousand tax free dollars in your bank account, but you also have a randomized 1% chance of instant death each time you press the button.

Essentially if you press it 10 times you get a 500k but you would have a 10% chance of death.

How many times do you press the button?

You only get one shot at it so you can't save your presses.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
22,497
820
126
Make that 0.01% chance and you are probably pretty close to the stats for working for a year (the actual number is job dependent, commute dependent, age dependent, and self-employed dependent of course).

For me, I'm an educated DINK (dual income, no kids). I have no need to gamble my life for money. I'll gamble my life for fulfillment, adventure, etc. But not for money.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
103,527
18,084
136
That's not right, is it? 10 independent 1% chances of a thing does not equal a total 10% chance of that thing happening after 10 events.

For example: if you push the button 100 times, it doesn't mean that you have a 100% chance of it happening, because each event is 1% chance. It's not accumulative. Each event is independently very low probability, and has no effect on the others.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
22,497
820
126
That's not right, is it? 10 independent 1% chances of a thing does not equal a total 10% chance of that thing happening after 10 events.

For example: if you push the button 100 times, it doesn't mean that you have a 100% chance of it happening, because each event is 1% chance. It's not accumulative. Each event is independently very low probability, and has no effect on the others.
The correct math is: 1 - ((1-1%)^10) = 9.562%

His rough estimate of 10% is probably close enough for an off-topic post.
 

BudAshes

Lifer
Jul 20, 2003
12,565
1,481
126
I did say it was randomized so there is not 100% chance of death if you push the button 100 times.
 

snoopy7548

Diamond Member
Jan 1, 2005
5,940
2,823
136
That would probably motivate me to get off my ass and find a girlfriend, so I could get married. Once we're married and open a joint checking account, I would finally bust out the button and tell her, "Honey, I found this button. If you press it, we'll get $50k deposited into our bank account, tax-free! I've just been waiting for the right person to share it with, and I want you to push it until we're filthy rich."

And that's how I'll become a single, filthy-rich ATOT baller.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
57,581
7,884
126
www.uovalor.com
I'd probably press it twice in a row. 100k would pay off the house and give me extra money in the bank. Would not want to get more greedy than that though.
 

BarkingGhostar

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2009
7,735
958
126
Why can't the money simply materialize instead of supporting some a-hole bank? If it just materialized then I'd just some dumb person to press it not knowing why. Modern solutions for modern problems.
 

pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
6,933
2,249
136
That's not right, is it? 10 independent 1% chances of a thing does not equal a total 10% chance of that thing happening after 10 events.

For example: if you push the button 100 times, it doesn't mean that you have a 100% chance of it happening, because each event is 1% chance. It's not accumulative. Each event is independently very low probability, and has no effect on the others.
Yup, because you can only die once. If you die from the first press the next 9 presses carry no additional risk.

For each press the chance of death needs to be modified by the probability you haven't already died from the previous presses.

So 1% + 0.99x1% + 0.99x0.99x1% + 0.99x0.99x0.99x1% +... etc...

The fact that I started to actually bother to work that out in full just reinforces my feeling that I might well press the button even if there wasn't any reward on offer.
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
6,933
2,249
136
The correct math is: 1 - ((1-1%)^10) = 9.562%

His rough estimate of 10% is probably close enough for an off-topic post.
The fact that I would once have known that and now can't remember is another reason why I'd probably press the button.
 
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Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,874
4,203
126
As there is no time limit I would wait until I was certain to die in the near future and repeatedly push it until I died to provide for my loved ones.
 
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NuclearNed

Raconteur
May 18, 2001
7,655
145
106
Are we talking about death combined with significant pain, or just instant poof you're gone without ever realizing what hit you? Because that makes a difference.
 
Nov 8, 2012
17,641
3,411
126
I'd probably press it twice in a row. 100k would pay off the house and give me extra money in the bank. Would not want to get more greedy than that though.
Same.

$100k is enough for me to be extra-comfy with my finances. Though I easily grab another $150k in my net worth each year, so it probably isn't worth it.

Still, I'd probably press it 2-3 times or so.
 

BudAshes

Lifer
Jul 20, 2003
12,565
1,481
126
Are we talking about death combined with significant pain, or just instant poof you're gone without ever realizing what hit you? Because that makes a difference.
Instant vaporization.

What if it was a 1% chance a random person on earth would die instead of yourself? Would that change your answer?
 

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